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Old 12-11-2017, 21:14   #721
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Well, it should cut down immigration, which is a principal reason why waiting times have increased.

The other one is that the baby boomers are getting old.

Nothing to do with the management of the NHS.
Is there much evidence that immigration is a 'principal reason' waiting times have increased?

Considering that immigrants tend to be healthier and younger it doesn't have to follow that they have. Even with the relatively high amount of immigration we've had these immigrants would probably need to be less healthy than the existing population to have a significant impact.

Last edited by Damien; 12-11-2017 at 21:43.
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Old 12-11-2017, 22:30   #722
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Mick View Post
No-one can help Mr K. Bless him, he is still happily sourcing the crappy remoaner gutter rag, theguardian, that he thinks people like you or I are going to be hoodwinked and read the BS that's printed in it.
What you mean that campaigning publication that likes to slag off the rich for avoiding tax but isn't so different.

https://order-order.com/2016/04/04/m...fshore-havens/

---------- Post added at 21:30 ---------- Previous post was at 21:24 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Is there much evidence that immigration is a 'principal reason' waiting times have increased?

Considering that immigrants tend to be healthier and younger it doesn't have to follow that they have. Even with the relatively high amount of immigration we've had these immigrants would probably need to be less healthy than the existing population to have a significant impact.
Are you suggesting that an extra 350,000 people in the UK every year isn't going to significantly impact adversely on NHS waiting times? Has there been extra funding to cope with all that? It doesn't much matter whether it's migrants or not but the fact is that most of the UK's rapid population growth over the last decade and more has been due to the migration which New Labour vastly underestimated and higher birth rates within immigrant communities.
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Old 12-11-2017, 22:47   #723
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Osem View Post
Are you suggesting that an extra 350,000 people in the UK every year isn't going to significantly impact adversely on NHS waiting times? Has there been extra funding to cope with all that? It doesn't much matter whether it's migrants or not but the fact is that most of the UK's rapid population growth over the last decade and more has been due to the migration which New Labour vastly underestimated and higher birth rates within immigrant communities.
As I said migration to the UK, especially that from Eastern Europe, tends to be younger and fitter whereas the biggest burdens on the NHS are from the elderly and those with chronic conditions. It makes sense that an increase in population relates to an increase in demand only if that population uses the service equally but instead it's very demographic dependent.

I am not saying it's had no impact, although with the proportion of EU nurses and social workers maybe it's even a positive one, but I am not sure it's one of the 'principal' causes of the rise in waiting times.

Everyone goes on and on about immigration without quantifying the impact it's really had on the NHS but you look at something like diabetes and that's had a dramatic impact: https://www.nhs.uk/news/diabetes/dia...icted-to-rise/

Quote:
These bold claims are based on a UK study which reported that the annual NHS cost of the direct treatment of diabetes in the UK will increase from £9.8 billion to £16.9 billion over the next 25 years. The predicted rise would equate to the NHS spending 17% of its entire budget on the condition, up from about 10% today.
10% of the NHS budget, 10%!, relatives only to diabetes. How likely is it immigration comes anywhere near that figure?

Last edited by Damien; 13-11-2017 at 09:58.
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Old 13-11-2017, 10:19   #724
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Re: Brexit discussion

This should put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Business Growth hits 6 month high in London

http://www.cityam.com/275573/busines...th-high-london

Waits for the inevitable responses from the Remain side: “But we not left yet.”

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Old 13-11-2017, 11:32   #725
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Re: Brexit discussion

10 month high in the north east of England - good news. Not so great for Northern Ireland but hopefully once border issues are sorted, it should bounce back.

Here's the full data for all regions - https://www.markiteconomics.com/Surv...e4b8c6f67afda6

I am looking forward to some professional analysis of the figures but here are my amateur thoughts on the rise;
  • Exports are still being boosted by a low GBP
  • Economic indicators and confidence in our main export markets are high (Eurozones PMI is higher than the UK though interestingly, the UK is lower)
  • The indication that interest rates are unlikely to go up by much more has allowed slack in inflation - price rises to counteract the cost of imports due to lower GBP are allowable for now
  • Employment is up - more customers
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Old 13-11-2017, 11:44   #726
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Re: Brexit discussion





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Old 13-11-2017, 14:02   #727
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick View Post
This should put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Business Growth hits 6 month high in London

http://www.cityam.com/275573/busines...th-high-london

Waits for the inevitable responses from the Remain side: “But we not left yet.”

Remembering when everything was to collapse if leave won.
'Emergency budgets' within days and all that guff...
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Last edited by Osem; 13-11-2017 at 14:06.
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:05   #728
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
As I said migration to the UK, especially that from Eastern Europe, tends to be younger and fitter whereas the biggest burdens on the NHS are from the elderly and those with chronic conditions. It makes sense that an increase in population relates to an increase in demand only if that population uses the service equally but instead it's very demographic dependent.

I am not saying it's had no impact, although with the proportion of EU nurses and social workers maybe it's even a positive one, but I am not sure it's one of the 'principal' causes of the rise in waiting times.

Everyone goes on and on about immigration without quantifying the impact it's really had on the NHS but you look at something like diabetes and that's had a dramatic impact: https://www.nhs.uk/news/diabetes/dia...icted-to-rise/



10% of the NHS budget, 10%!, relatives only to diabetes. How likely is it immigration comes anywhere near that figure?
I think you have missed the point, Damien. I don't know how fit these people are, but given the sheer number of them piling into the UK, there is an obvious impact on our public services, particularly the NHS, not to mention housing, schools, etc.

And before there are any rants, it is not a race or nationality issue. It is a capacity issue. We are not a big country, and we have over-reached our capacity. If the bus you are waiting for turns up but it's full, you would expect to be turned away, wouldn't you?

When we regain control of our affairs, we will be able to pick and choose who we take in, and I dare say that the NHS would be an obvious example of where skills from overseas (not just Europe) would be welcome.
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:07   #729
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I think you have missed the point, Damien. I don't know how fit these people are, but given the sheer number of them piling into the UK, there is an obvious impact on our public services, particularly the NHS, not to mention housing, schools, etc.

And before there are any rants, it is not a race or nationality issue. It is a capacity issue. We are not a big country, and we have over-reached our capacity. If the bus you are waiting for turns up but it's full, you would expect to be turned away, wouldn't you?

When we regain control of our affairs, we will be able to pick and choose who we take in, and I dare say that the NHS would be an obvious example of where skills from overseas (not just Europe) would be welcome.
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:13   #730
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
Who are you going to blame OB? when many are already going back to their own countries and more will follow as you cannot blame them anymore for this countries increasing ills.
Well, Den, we are looking at why there is such pressure on the NHS, and I am saying that you cannot have a huge influx in your population without there being a consequence for the NHS, and indeed all public services.

If a large number of EU citizens return to Europe, that will reduce pressure on the NHS.
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:14   #731
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I think you have missed the point, Damien. I don't know how fit these people are, but given the sheer number of them piling into the UK, there is an obvious impact on our public services, particularly the NHS, not to mention housing, schools, etc.
No I got the point fine. I was asking if there was much evidence of immigration being one of the principal causes of the rise in waiting times. If it's so obvious it should be easy to quantify, especially given the large impact it's meant to be having.

How fit and healthy immigrants are is important to the question because the NHS is not used equally across demographics.

Not about waiting times this article suggests immigrants from the EU are a small cost compared to other factors and they might even make a net contribution: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/res...ure-on-the-nhs


Last edited by Damien; 13-11-2017 at 14:19.
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:17   #732
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I think you have missed the point, Damien. I don't know how fit these people are, but given the sheer number of them piling into the UK, there is an obvious impact on our public services, particularly the NHS, not to mention housing, schools, etc.
Quote:
Four in five babies delivered in one NHS hospital were born to foreign mums, official figures reveal.

There were 4,031 births to overseas mums out of the 5,117 arrivals at Northwick Park Hospital in North West London last year.

It is one of 25 maternity units in England where foreign mothers outnumbered UK-born women. Others include Newham University Hospital, East London, where the proportion was 77 per cent, and St Mary’s Hospital in North West London with 71 per cent.

The figures expose the pressures migration is adding to stretched NHS wards, campaigners say.

About 700,000 babies are born in England and Wales each year.

In 2016, more than 28 per cent of these were to women born outside the UK, the highest level on record.
Source
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:17   #733
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Well, Den, we are looking at why there is such pressure on the NHS, and I am saying that you cannot have a huge influx in your population without there being a consequence for the NHS, and indeed all public services.

If a large number of EU citizens return to Europe, that will reduce pressure on the NHS.
l somehow doubt it very much..
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:21   #734
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
No I got the point fine. I was asking if there was much evidence of immigration being one of the principal causes of the rise in waiting times. If it's so obvious it should be easy to quantify, especially given the large impact it's meant to be having.

How fit and healthy immigrants are is important to the question because the NHS is not used equally across demographics.

Not about waiting times this article suggests immigrants from the EU are a small cost compared to other factors and they might even make a net contribution: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/res...ure-on-the-nhs

You haven't got the point that is being made, with all due respect. You cannot have all those people coming in without consequences for the NHS, even if they do tend to be fitter than the Brits!
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Old 13-11-2017, 14:23   #735
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Well, Den, we are looking at why there is such pressure on the NHS, and I am saying that you cannot have a huge influx in your population without there being a consequence for the NHS, and indeed all public services.

If a large number of EU citizens return to Europe, that will reduce pressure on the NHS.
Public services have had severe cuts because of Austerity not because of how many immigrants one has in a country as we don't have that many down here and yet public services and our local health services have had to face severe cuts to their finances these past few years with sign of it ending due to Austerity cuts..
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