Brexit discussion

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's all theatrics, Andrew. We will end up exiting the common market, customs union and the EU with its enforcing ECJ. The reference to regulatory alignment is a matter that needs to be thrashed out in detail, but remainers shouldn't get too excited about that. These will simply be common sense arrangements to ensure the border arrangements do not cause a problem. As we already comply, that should not present the UK with a problem.

What this agreement has shown is that despite all the ludicrous comments that the Government was in chaos and would never be able to reach a deal with the EU which would implement the electoral result required, Theresa May has been steadily moving towards her goal.

The 'chaos' results from tne simple fact that the government is in a minority in the House of Commons. The fact that despite this, TM has achieved the nod to go forward to the second phase of negotiations, is testament to her professional approach and determination.

Jeremy Corbyn would have caved in by now.

I admire your faith in the PM

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

I admire your faith in the PM

Well I guess we will all see with the fullness of time!

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by nomadking

2) He is far from the only one with these ideas.
2012
June 2016

Of the two articles you posted. The first was from the Washington Post that went on to say why France, Spain, Netherlands, etc. Would be nervous about more German influence and would object to these plans.

The second was from the Daily Express.... Funnily enough, no blueprint to do away with nation states has appeared yet

Both articles were looking at the possibility of a central Eurozone treasury

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's all theatrics, Andrew. We will end up exiting the common market, customs union and the EU with its enforcing ECJ. The reference to regulatory alignment is a matter that needs to be thrashed out in detail, but remainers shouldn't get too excited about that. These will simply be common sense arrangements to ensure the border arrangements do not cause a problem. As we already comply, that should not present the UK with a problem.

What this agreement has shown is that despite all the ludicrous comments that the Government was in chaos and would never be able to reach a deal with the EU which would implement the electoral result required, Theresa May has been steadily moving towards her goal.

The 'chaos' results from tne simple fact that the government is in a minority in the House of Commons. The fact that despite this, TM has achieved the nod to go forward to the second phase of negotiations, is testament to her professional approach and determination.

Jeremy Corbyn would have caved in by now.

Oh bless.

Cheers

Dave

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

Oh bless.

Cheers

Dave

The problem about the future is that you can't prove it until it happens.

We've done phase 1. Many thought we would not.

Be careful what you say about the grand finale, there may be a lot of hat eating taking place.

We will either end up with no deal (which is not a disaster, by the way), or we will get a deal.

Continuing participation in the Common Market or the Customs Union is not going to happen.

That is what the government is determined to achieve and that is what we will get. Anything can happen on the detail, but unless those main objectives are achieved, there will be no deal.

[Gavin78]

Well if they can set a trade deal up with Japan then it should be easier for us?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Well if they can set a trade deal up with Japan then it should be easier for us?

Yes. It does not have to take as long as it takes for the EU to set up a trade deal.

It took 7 years for Canada, and it's taken over a decade with the USA (and it's still not agreed!). For God's sake, it's not that hard!

The EU must get the agreement of all EU countries before they can agree anything. Do you not see the flaw in that arrangement?

The EU really must have a centralised government to make this work. The problem is that no-one trusts such an arrangement that takes away the power of democratically elected politicians and puts it into the hands of bureaucrats.

Really, would you?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Jeremy Corbyn would have caved in by now.

That's pretty much what Theresa May has done so you're probably right.
Charles Moore, Daily Telegraph: This Brexit deal is no breakthrough. It is a complete capitulation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-capitulation/

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes. It does not have to take as long as it takes for the EU to set up a trade deal.

It took 7 years for Canada, and it's taken over a decade with the USA (and it's still not agreed!). For God's sake, it's not that hard!

It is hard and the EU has been the most successful organisation at signing them. Anyone can sign a bad deal quickly but to get the right deal done takes time. I think you'll find that sorting out a trade deal with the US is not easy... as chlorinated chicken and Bombardier have shown.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

That's pretty much what Theresa May has done so you're probably right.
Charles Moore, Daily Telegraph: This Brexit deal is no breakthrough. It is a complete capitulation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-capitulation/


It is hard and the EU has been the most successful organisation at signing them. Anyone can sign a bad deal quickly but to get the right deal done takes time. I think you'll find that sorting out a trade deal with the US is not easy... as chlorinated chicken and Bombardier have shown.

Typically negative post from you, Andrew. Can you not see the positive in anything?

The point is, there is no capitulation on leaving the EU, no capitulation on the common market, and no capitulation on the customs union. These points were made abundantly clear by Theresa May last Wednesday in the House of Commons.

Where exactly are you going with this? Remember that your posts now will be available for all to see in just over a year's time.

And by the way, we are now into phase 2 of the talks! Did you foresee that?

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The point is, there is no capitulation on leaving the EU, no capitulation on the common market, and no capitulation on the customs union. These points were made abundantly clear by Theresa May last Wednesday in the House of Commons.

I think May has done well with the agreement she has got but as with the original post the customs union question does seem to be something she has moved on. The text promises that in the event a deal isn't reached there still will not be a harder border between Northern Ireland and Ireland or the island of Ireland and Britain. It's hard to square that with the idea we won't be in some version of a custom's union, that's sort of the point of it.

Phase 1 does so far seem to suggest a softer Brexit than we were expecting a week ago. While I think you can congratulate May on the deal struck it's a bit misleading to suggest that nothing has changed, it's there in black and white irrespective of what she said in the commons.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Well if they can set a trade deal up with Japan then it should be easier for us?

We wouldn't get as good a deal. 28 countries together have a lot more clout than 1 on its own.

---------- Post added at 08:25 ---------- Previous post was at 08:17 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Phase 1 does so far seem to suggest a softer Brexit than we were expecting a week ago. While I think you can congratulate May on the deal struck it's a bit misleading to suggest that nothing has changed, it's there in black and white irrespective of what she said in the commons.

Theresa and Spreadsheet Phil are remainers, that's what they campaigned and voted for. It always was going to be a soft/cosmetic Brexit, its a matter of damage limitation. The swivel eyed loons in her cabinet are unelectable so she's played a blinder.

[GrimUpNorth]

So what have we learned this past week or so?

We've learnt that "brexit means brexit" and "we've done shed loads of impact assessments" both seem to be phrases the government have plucked from their 'Conservative Big Book Of Things To Say When You're In A Hole'.

I would imagine some of our more hard-line Eurosceptic are sitting quietly in a darkened room hence why we've not heard much from them. Don't worry guys, just console yourselves with the thought of how much worse the deal would have been if we'd of had the soft swivel eyed lefties from Labour running the show instead of the hard as nails no nonsense no backing down Conservatives.

If it's true the PM had to ask the EU to cut her some slack so she could survive politically then the EU must be running their hands with glee about the upcoming talks next year.

Cheers

Dave

Stop with the 'usual suspect' digs

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

So what have we learned this past week or so?

We've learnt that "brexit means brexit" and "we've done shed loads of impact assessments" both seem to be phrases the government have plucked from their 'Conservative Big Book Of Things To Say When You're In A Hole'.

I would imagine some of our more hard-line Eurosceptic are sitting quietly in a darkened room hence why we've not heard much from them. Don't worry guys, just console yourselves with the thought of how much worse the deal would have been if we'd of had the soft swivel eyed lefties from Labour running the show instead of the hard as nails no nonsense no backing down Conservatives.

If it's true the PM had to ask the EU to cut her some slack so she could survive politically then the EU must be running their hands with glee about the upcoming talks next year.

Cheers

Dave

Well, no! The documents the Conservatives were referring to and have made available are industry evaluation assessments, not impact assessments, as was made clear in the House of Commons on Wednesday. What the government should, and is, concentrating on is getting the best deal for Britain.

The fact that the 'hard line' Brexiteers have gone quiet is because Theresa has successfully managed to get the EU Commission to recommend we go to Phase II, with our red lines of exiting the customs union and common market in tact. That in itself is a good achievement. I would have thought that 'hard line remainers' such as your good self would have welcomed the prospect of getting a deal with the EU. Isn't that what you guys have been obsessing over?

There's still a lot of negotiation to go and interpretations on what has been 'locked in' under Phase I to deal with, but we are on our way.

I think people should stop bitching from the sidelines and give the government a chance to deliver what the electorate voted for.

The DUP has done the government a favour, because it has highlighted for the EU negotiators the difficult job TM has in bringing all the parties together. This will clarify for Juncker and Barnier that they cannot push too hard because that will end in a 'no deal', which is not the result they want.

---------- Post added at 11:08 ---------- Previous post was at 11:06 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

I think May has done well with the agreement she has got but as with the original post the customs union question does seem to be something she has moved on. The text promises that in the event a deal isn't reached there still will not be a harder border between Northern Ireland and Ireland or the island of Ireland and Britain. It's hard to square that with the idea we won't be in some version of a custom's union, that's sort of the point of it.

Phase 1 does so far seem to suggest a softer Brexit than we were expecting a week ago. While I think you can congratulate May on the deal struck it's a bit misleading to suggest that nothing has changed, it's there in black and white irrespective of what she said in the commons.

Theresa May has not moved on the customs union issue and she would not be able to get Cabinet agreement on that. If there is a trade deal, there will be no need for a hard border. If there's not, the government has alternative plans to deal with that.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Typically negative post from you, Andrew. Can you not see the positive in anything?

The point is, there is no capitulation on leaving the EU, no capitulation on the common market, and no capitulation on the customs union. These points were made abundantly clear by Theresa May last Wednesday in the House of Commons.

Where exactly are you going with this? Remember that your posts now will be available for all to see in just over a year's time.

And by the way, we are now into phase 2 of the talks! Did you foresee that?

I think the Ireland settlement was bad news for Brextremists and Jeremy Corbyn whose chances of coming to power soon took a knock. But good news for many other people who didn't want the possibility of a hard Brexit. This text suggests to me that not only is it beginning to look a lot like Christmas, it's also beginning to look a lot like a soft Brexit:

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.”

I agree with Michael Gove that if the country does want a hard Brexit with the economic setbacks and border issues that entails, then people should vote accordingly in the next election.
I appreciate your optimism but you also need to stop believing and quoting everything politicians say and look at what was actually agreed.