Post-Brexit Thread - Page 98

Anypermitedroute · 05-08-2016, 06:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Well in fairness Ignition for most of the campaign you were saying the doom and gloom from remain wasn't very reliable and i believe you called more then a bit of it rubbish so you are the last one to be honest having a go at anyone. Absolutely nothing in practical terms has changed there is zero reason for all this to be happening now but it is and rather then argue about what caused it perhaps we should be looking at a system that requires no actual change to go into meltdown. Perhaps it's time for some very radical reform of the financial markets given the impact they have on people and seemingly respond to a fart in the wind.

The market is of course looking at the future state as well (it would be accused of being asleep at the wheel if it didn't) so whilst today hasn't actually changed it is of course trying now to prepare for a post brexit world which we now know will happen!, that is their job and they are trying actually (believe it or not) to prepare in best possible way. That is how economics works you make decisions based on today and what you think the future looks like whilst using the past as a rule of thumb

I welcome your view on this radical reform you speak of and how this is done on a "global" scale

05-08-2016, 08:30

Predicting and planning is different to actual activity and given nothing has actually changed there is no practical reason for all the volatility unless we were entering a period of volatility and brexit is just a convenient excuse. I would have thought our voting to leave the EU was less cause for volatility then the perilous state of Mediterranean finances some of which could go into complete meltdown at some point this year. Maybe that is the real problem and cause and again brexit is the convenient excuse.

As to what reform i dont know the system well enough to have an idea how it should be reformed but clearly it does need reform and change if only to secure it more against unscrupulous speculators that all too often seem to create big problems.

Ignitionnet · 05-08-2016, 11:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Well in fairness Ignition for most of the campaign you were saying the doom and gloom from remain wasn't very reliable and i believe you called more then a bit of it rubbish so you are the last one to be honest having a go at anyone.

As I remember I said I thought the hyperbole of it all was absurd. I'm not sure I said that there would be no negative consequences in the shorter term, I think I was quite open in saying that there would be a period of uncertainty, but that the idea that forecasts could be made reliably 15 years into the future, that an emergency budget would be needed or that World War 3 would kick off was absurd.

I may be mistaken and can't be bothered to go back through the posts though. Keeping calm, carrying on and all that.

And now something a little lighter.

---------- Post added at 11:19 ---------- Previous post was at 11:09 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Predicting and planning is different to actual activity and given nothing has actually changed there is no practical reason for all the volatility unless we were entering a period of volatility and brexit is just a convenient excuse. I would have thought our voting to leave the EU was less cause for volatility then the perilous state of Mediterranean finances some of which could go into complete meltdown at some point this year. Maybe that is the real problem and cause and again brexit is the convenient excuse.

The two issues, Brexit and the ongoing Eurozone problems, don't sit in a silo and aren't insulated, the impacts are cumulative.

I'm not sure how issues with finances of a group of countries that comprise perhaps a few % of our exports can be considered less of a cause for volatility than uncertainty over our trading relationship with a bloc that as a whole takes ~40% of our exports or the huge fluctuations in our currency.

Something has actually materially changed already - the weakening of Sterling is making imports more expensive and this is slowly but surely filtering through. Imports more expensive means lower buying power domestically, so lower domestic demand.

Pretty much as described by the BoE going forward. An increase in exports alongside lower domestic demand, and there is inevitably a delay while the economy tries to recalibrate to this.

It's not actually a bad thing overall, we were far too dependent on domestic consumption and were exporting too little. Bit messy during the transition though.

I am sure that if we make a strong success of the transition people will be delighted, as they should be. I will be. In the interim, of course, all of us need to accept the consequences of our vote, whichever way we voted.

Like Israel, I maintain a policy of ambiguity with regards to which way I voted on the day

Big Brian · 05-08-2016, 11:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh

On the contrary ,everything has changed .Companies in general have no idea what UKplc will look like in 5-10yrs time and construction companies in particular are particularly vulnerable to changes in government policy .They also rely heavily on lending to build the houses and the ability of customers to borrow the money to buy the houses they build .Any uncertainty in financial markets will without a doubt negatively affect house builders.

What the government do over the next 6 months will determine the ability of what large companies can achieve over the next 10 yrs.What we are seeing now is a sharp intake of breath waiting for the government to make it's move.

Not a t all I'm saying I think the Government are panicking a bit. Yes we knew this would happen but not the doom and gloom predicted. Seems like there won't be a recession now.

Osem · 05-08-2016, 11:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36924098

Pound drops again..But hey that's just part of readjustments right? It's not going to keep happening is it?

Suggest you look at a graph of sterling over the last few few decades - it's been up and down like a yoyo. Currencies tend to fluctuate according to all sorts of factors, some of which have little or nothing to do with internal fundamentals. Much of the world is still struggling to recover from the aftermath of 2007/8 and IMHO the legacy of that, PLUS Brexit uncertainty will continue to affect our currency. Once the Euro bad news starts to focus a few minds, however, Sterling will recover just like it has done before and at that point everyone will start banging on about how that will adversely affect our exports...

Big Brian · 05-08-2016, 15:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh

On the contrary ,everything has changed .Companies in general have no idea what UKplc will look like in 5-10yrs time and construction companies in particular are particularly vulnerable to changes in government policy .They also rely heavily on lending to build the houses and the ability of customers to borrow the money to buy the houses they build .Any uncertainty in financial markets will without a doubt negatively affect house builders.

What the government do over the next 6 months will determine the ability of what large companies can achieve over the next 10 yrs.What we are seeing now is a sharp intake of breath waiting for the government to make it's move.

They shouldn't bother about 5-10 years they should just carry on as they are. Regarding the EU nothing has changed and won't until we start negotiations. Trading still continues as it has always done. We are still full members until we decide otherwise.

---------- Post added at 15:34 ---------- Previous post was at 15:31 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36924098

Pound drops again..But hey that's just part of readjustments right? It's not going to keep happening is it?

Actually according to the news today it is where it was before the referendum.

---------- Post added at 15:37 ---------- Previous post was at 15:34 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking

If you had shares in a company and everybody was saying if X happens then the share price would go down, what would you and everybody else do if X happened. You and everybody else would sell, which is what would drive the price down and not whether X happened or not. When people were gleefully saying that the value of Sterling would go down, the markets had little option but to sell Sterling, thereby driving the price down. It was where enough people are made to believe that something will either go up or down that makes it happen. A self-fulfilling prophecy. By predicting something, you make it happen.

The same thing they would do regardless of whether we voted to leave or remain in the EU or if there had never been a referendum on the EU. Buy and sell as normal. Can't blame that on Brexit.

**Hugh** · 05-08-2016, 15:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

They shouldn't bother about 5-10 years they should just carry on as they are. Regarding the EU nothing has changed and won't until we start negotiations. Trading still continues as it has always done. We are still full members until we decide otherwise.

---------- Post added at 15:34 ---------- Previous post was at 15:31 ----------

Actually according to the news today it is where it was before the referendum.

Erm, big companies have to have 5 and 10 year plans, so they can plan investment, and raise capital from the City for those investments; if you don't plan for the future, you'll soon be out of business...

Big Brian · 05-08-2016, 15:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

Erm, big companies have to have 5 and 10 year plans, so they can plan investment, and raise capital from the City for those investments; if you don't plan for the future, you'll soon be out of business...

Indeed and they would have already done that. Things just don't change overnight. They will have made their investments.

If it's no big deal, why are we even worrying about it. It's only temporary after all. 5-10 years down the line when the economy is either booming or gone belly-up is the time to celebrate or panic.

**Hugh** · 05-08-2016, 16:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Indeed and they would have already done that. Things just don't change overnight. They will have made their investments.

If it's no big deal, why are we even worrying about it. It's only temporary after all. 5-10 years down the line when the economy is either booming or gone belly-up is the time to celebrate or panic.

You don't just get given money by banks/bonds issuers/Investment Capitalists, you have to show them your short, medium, and long term plans, and how you are willing and able to adjust them if downturns and upturns happen - they don't give you it all at once, it is issued in tranches, and only if they believe they will get a return on it. If they think the economy is on a downturn, they won't loan you the money, or will ask for more in repayments.

If they think they will get more of a return on their investment from a country with a stronger economy, they'll invest there, not here.

It's not like a bank loan, it's a lot more complicated than that.

Ignitionnet · 05-08-2016, 23:57

Tell you what, given those experts were clueless they seem to be having one hell of an impact on things.

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TheDaddy · 06-08-2016, 06:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Tell you what, given those experts were clueless they seem to be having one hell of an impact on things.

Pah experts, we're sick of them, far better to rely on ignorance, optimism and what people down your street say.

papa smurf · 06-08-2016, 08:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Tell you what, given those experts were clueless they seem to be having one hell of an impact on things.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

Big Brian · 06-08-2016, 13:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Tell you what, given those experts were clueless they seem to be having one hell of an impact on things.

But they're not. Where's Armageddon?

papa smurf · 06-08-2016, 16:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

But they're not. Where's Armageddon?

i think its planned for next week just after ww3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

**Hugh** · 06-08-2016, 16:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

But they're not. Where's Armageddon?

I think you may be making stuff up now...

Who said it would be Armageddon?

However, your statement that it's not having an impact is a sub-optimal interpretation of actuality..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36974551

Quote:

The Bank of England is not very confident about the future of the economy.

It says growth will fall dramatically, announcing the biggest downgrade to its growth forecast since it started inflation reports in 1993.

The economy, it says, will be 2.5% smaller in three years' time than it believed it would be when the Bank last opined on these matters in May.

Unemployment will rise (although only marginally), inflation will rise, real income growth will slow and house prices will decline.

Growth, the Bank believes, will fall perilously close to zero over the final six months of this year.