By-Elections Results.

Originally Posted by Damien

Hardly dire. The worst result is still a big swing to them. The other one was a huge swing, the best in their history. John Curtice pointed out the results support the national polling where Labour is roughly 15-19% ahead.

Also Labour weren't convinced at all about Somerton. They didn't campaign there and it was always about the lib dems. Labour were 100/1 to win the seat, Libs 1/50.

It wasn’t a big swing, 26,000 Tory votes missing. It’s Voter Apathy.

[jfman]

It’s amazing how bad the Tories are yet people still strategise how they could/should lead the country after 13 years of failure

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mick

Not necessarily. Turn out is lower in by-elections than a General Election.

Labour’s results were dire, they were convinced they’d pick up all three. Never gonna happen under woke policies & his flip flopping nature.

Sunak still needs to go, along with Hunt, if the Tories ever have a chance. I deffo think we’re in Hung Parliament territory at the next GE.

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It’s not a real image. The image was created using AI.

And how would changing Sunak before the election go down with the electorate given they have already changed leaders several times in this parliament including giving this country the awful out of her depth Liz Truss.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by denphone

And how would changing Sunak before the election go down with the electorate given they have already changed leaders several times in this parliament including giving this country the awful out of her depth Liz Truss.

Steady on Den if they ditch Sunak for Truss the party could end up dead.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mick

It wasn’t a big swing, 26,000 Tory votes missing. It’s Voter Apathy.

Two previous occasions (1972 and 1997) saw a byelection in Uxbridge in which Labour was thought likely to romp home easily, only for the Conservatives to hold on. In both cases Labour won the next general election anyway.

Based on these figures, Labour should be feeling pretty encouraged right now. Yes, it’s a by election but even at a by election overturning that majority in Selby was quite something. Even if that seat returns to the Tories next year - which it will, more likely than not - a swing on anything like this scale will see Labour into power. Meanwhile down in Frome the LibDems will likewise be encouraged at the thought they might get back their traditional regional homeland in the southwest of England.

Uxbridge was a two-horse race and while it’s true that Labour lost by fewer votes than went to the large number of independent/joke candidates it does mean they can’t take anything for granted over the next 12-18 months. Even if ULEZ is entirely to blame for them failing to unseat the Tories, it is a sobering reminder that national polling doesn’t always account for local issues that can and do derail unwary campaigns.

I’d say Rishi Sunak should be fearing his P45 right now, except he’s so completely minted he doesn’t actually have to work for a living. Maybe that’s his biggest problem and a good reason to bin him. Speaking of whom, I’d still have voted Count Binface.

Originally Posted by Chris

I’d say Rishi Sunak should be fearing his P45 right now, except he’s so completely minted he doesn’t actually have to work for a living. Maybe that’s his biggest problem and a good reason to bin him. Speaking of whom, I’d still have voted Count Binface.

Replace him for who though?

I don't actually think he has been that bad and had he succeeded Boris Johnson I think the polling might be a bit better too. He has the right idea in stabilising the perception of chaos that surrounded the Government and focusing on a few key issues.

It's just that he is snookered by what he inherited. Johnson threw away the massive political mandate he had and Truss came in and set what remained on fire.

Now he is finding it difficult to turn it around because of the underlying problems in the country. He may be somewhat responsible for some of the economic conditions due to having been chancellor but the problems around housing, the NHS, and the economy predate him. He is paying the political debt of the previous administrations.

Originally Posted by Damien

Replace him for who though?

I don't actually think he has been that bad and had he succeeded Boris Johnson I think the polling might be a bit better too. He has the right idea in stabilising the perception of chaos that surrounded the Government and focusing on a few key issues.

It's just that he is snookered by what he inherited. Johnson threw away the massive political mandate he had and Truss came in and set what remained on fire.

Now he is finding it difficult to turn it around because of the underlying problems in the country. He may be somewhat responsible for some of the economic conditions due to having been chancellor but the problems around housing, the NHS, and the economy predate him. He is paying the political debt of the previous administrations.

Bin him for Keir Starmer, who may not exude personal charisma and has not yet demonstrated he has a comprehensive plan for government, but at least gives the impression that he knows what life in the UK is actually like for most people.

Originally Posted by Chris

Bin him for Keir Starmer, who may not exude personal charisma and has not yet demonstrated he has a comprehensive plan for government, but at least gives the impression that he knows what life in the UK is actually like for most people.

Oh sorry, I thought you meant the Tories should bin him for another leader ahead of the election. I think he is the best the Tories can do for now.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Oh sorry, I thought you meant the Tories should bin him for another leader ahead of the election. I think he is the best the Tories can do for now.

Yes, he's the best they've had for some time. It's counterproductive to appoint a new Conservative leader at this stage and there's no obvious candidate. Best let Labour govern for a couple of terms and bring through someone else. I suspect Sunak will not want to remain on the Opposition benches, perhaps not even on these shores.

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s amazing how bad the Tories are yet people still strategise how they could/should lead the country after 13 years of failure

How’s the SNP doing?

Wind your neck in.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

How’s the SNP doing?

Wind your neck in.

Still polling first in Scotland last I checked but it’s been a while to be fair. Labour are struggling to come up with a coherent policy platform where London doesn’t contradict Edinburgh. The Tories, well, the less said the better.

What’s frightening is if the unionists can’t up their game the Greens might get an even bigger say after the next election. Shudder.

Originally Posted by jfman

Still polling first in Scotland last I checked but it’s been a while to be fair. Labour are struggling to come up with a coherent policy platform where London doesn’t contradict Edinburgh. The Tories, well, the less said the better.

What’s frightening is if the unionists can’t up their game the Greens might get an even bigger say after the next election. Shudder.

I hear they’re missing some campaign money?

The latest ‘Nowcast’ prediction based on recent polling suggests Labour and SNP both on course to have 24 seats in Scotland at the next Westminster election. The process of decoupling the SNP from sympathy towards Scotland leaving the UK is beginning, but will be a slow process. Still, if the next election turns out anything like this prediction it’ll be pure schadenfreude watching wee Humza fae Hutchie twisting in the wind after his Westminster operation loses 50% of its seats.

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

I hear they’re missing some campaign money?

A tiny fraction of what Michelle Mone robbed the taxpayer but that’s getting off topic.

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Originally Posted by Chris

The latest ‘Nowcast’ prediction based on recent polling suggests Labour and SNP both on course to have 24 seats in Scotland at the next Westminster election. The process of decoupling the SNP from sympathy towards Scotland leaving the UK is beginning, but will be a slow process. Still, if the next election turns out anything like this prediction it’ll be pure schadenfreude watching wee Humza fae Hutchie twisting in the wind after his Westminster operation loses 50% of its seats.

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Only one poll that matters as they say.

It’ll defo be interesting times, Kier Starmer’s victory in the next UK General Election should at least bring some professionalism, intelligence around UKG plans and developing a manifesto and a vision for Scotland in devolution.