Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[Stephen]

Been watching the debate on BBC with all the school kids. Yet again Sturgeon just like bawface was shouting over everyone else when they tried to answer.

My step daughter was due to be there today but couldn't go.

[Mr Angry]

Originally Posted by Chris

Anyone unable to see the schools debate on BBC One Scotland that has just finished, you must see it when it's broadcast to the rest of the UK after the news, starting around 10.40pm IIRC. Patrick Harvie, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson and Gorgeous George Galloway in front of an audience of 7,000 sixth year pupils from every school in Scotland. This was by far the best debate I have seen and this time the BBC Scotland hack in the chair wasn't afraid to keep control and tell the panellists to shut up when necessary. And, in terms of getting their points across, a modest win for the No campaign, IMO. Harvie was earnest but esoteric while Sturgeon resorted to playing the man (or woman) as is the nationalist way. Davidson was calm and clear while Galloway ... well, he was George Galloway. A good orator.

It'll be an interesting watch from what I saw of the live commentary on the Cardigan.

[LondonRoad]

Originally Posted by Chris

Anyone unable to see the schools debate on BBC One Scotland that has just finished, you must see it when it's broadcast to the rest of the UK after the news, starting around 10.40pm IIRC. Patrick Harvie, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson and Gorgeous George Galloway in front of an audience of 7,000 sixth year pupils from every school in Scotland.

This was by far the best debate I have seen and this time the BBC Scotland hack in the chair wasn't afraid to keep control and tell the panellists to shut up when necessary.

And, in terms of getting their points across, a modest win for the No campaign, IMO. Harvie was earnest but esoteric while Sturgeon resorted to playing the man (or woman) as is the nationalist way. Davidson was calm and clear while Galloway ... well, he was George Galloway. A good orator.

It was good but thought the panelists were still given too much of the floor. It would have been interesting to hear more from the 16 and 17 year olds (I don't think it was restricted to 6th years, although I suspect it was mainly 6th Years who were among the 500 on the floor).

Of the panelists I thought both wummin performed well. I still despise them both though . Patrick Harvie was OK. I was a bit disappointed in GG. Love him or hate him he is an excellent orator but I think he underperformed. Perhaps he was distracted by having so support both the Tories and Labor

I don't think think there was anything in the discussion that would push the unknowns one way or the other. Certainly nothing that would turn a Nae into Yae or vice versa.

[Arthurgray50@blu]

Stephen, My wife's family are from Glasgow. And she has said NO. She has been told that she cannot vote.

She is now in London, but her heart obviouly is Scotland. I believe that it is up to the people who decide. Not some pocksy MPs from London, especially Cameron. Who as far as l know Scots dont normally vote Tory.

My personnal feeling is that its the Scots who decide.

I dont believe costs will rise. The oil Fields will keep Scots thriving for years to come.

There was a poll down in London which said that IF the vote was Yes, the majoirty of votes for a general election, would be halved - how true that is l dontr know

More on that YouGov poll:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...71431297359872

Women are reverting back to 'No'. He says scare tactics working but only the last part of the fieldwork for the poll was done after those stories broke.

...biggest fall with Scots women, who fear they will be poorer; Yes 42% (down from 47), No 58% (was 53). 'Scare tactics' this week working.

Brown does seem to be the best guy to front the campaign until polling day:

...Alex Salmond's trust ratings down 4% since Sept 5; 42% to 38%. Gordon Brown’s trust ratings up 3% – from 32% to 35%. Gordon's Alive.

Yes is now behind in most age groups but the 25-39 year olds.

...Opposition to independence strongest among young and old Scots. Over 60s: No 64%, Yes 36%

...Scots 16-24 year olds also now rejecting breakaway: No 53%, Yes 47%. A mistake by Salmond to give 16-18s the vote?

...Support for independence hardest among 25-39 year-olds: Yes 60%, No 40%

...Scots middle aged, 40-59 year-olds, split down the middle: No 50%, Yes 50%

An additional positive is No's lead remains strongest with the demographic most likely to vote (older people).

Originally Posted by Arthurgray50@blu

Stephen, My wife's family are from Glasgow. And she has said NO. She has been told that she cannot vote.

She is now in London, but her heart obviouly is Scotland. I believe that it is up to the people who decide. Not some pocksy MPs from London, especially Cameron. Who as far as l know Scots dont normally vote Tory.

My personnal feeling is that its the Scots who decide.

I dont believe costs will rise. The oil Fields will keep Scots thriving for years to come.

There was a poll down in London which said that IF the vote was Yes, the majoirty of votes for a general election, would be halved - how true that is l dontr know

If they do vote yes, and once the changes have happened, its unlikely Liebour will ever be in government again apparently?

[Chad]

"The BBC is under political pressure to reveal details of a highly charged internal study which found that viewers in an independent Scotland would have to pay almost double their current licence fee if they wanted to continue watching and listening to the same BBC shows."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...e-impartiality

Originally Posted by Top banana

If they do vote yes, and once the changes have happened, its unlikely Liebour will ever be in government again apparently?

They got majorities in '97 and '01 being enough to allow them to lose Scottish seats and be ok.

Realistically they would just drift slightly to the right, more New Labour in '97, and the Tories will drift righter still. Especially with UKIP on their tails. I think politics would be pretty different anyway so the majorities and presumptions of previous parliaments may not apply anymore.

[LondonRoad]

Originally Posted by Mr Angry

If anyone wants an insight as to just how disappointingly biased, selective and embittered some at the BBC have become when it comes to reporting facts I'd invite them to watch these two clips.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHmLb-RIbrM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enrdDaf3uss

That is major concern. "disappointingly biased" is very diplomatic language Mr A.

Deceitfully lying is a more accurate description. It's the sort of editing I'd expect from Fox or Sky. I expect more from the BBC

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Chad

"The BBC is under political pressure to reveal details of a highly charged internal study which found that viewers in an independent Scotland would have to pay almost double their current licence fee if they wanted to continue watching and listening to the same BBC shows."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...e-impartiality

Same story with at least some broadband for similar reasons.

Originally Posted by Damien

More on that YouGov poll:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...71431297359872

Women are reverting back to 'No'. He says scare tactics working but only the last part of the fieldwork for the poll was done after those stories broke.



Brown does seem to be the best guy to front the campaign until polling day:



Yes is now behind in most age groups but the 25-39 year olds.



An additional positive is No's lead remains strongest with the demographic most likely to vote (older people).

In other words, the only people backing independence are the ones who feel sufficiently in control of their own destinies not to be excessively bothered about the risks it poses to the State, and the State's ability to provide support services which, by and large, they don't need.

But those considering education and training, and those with concerns about health, pension and social care in later life, most definitely are concerned, because, I think, they have less direct and immediate control over their lives and are more aware of the State's role in supporting them.

Far from this being a case of No voters being "I'm alright jack" and the Yessers all voting for a brigheter future, it seems to me that the people most likely to vote Yes are the ones who need worry the least about the risks it poses to the most vulnerable among us.

[Stephen]

Originally Posted by Arthurgray50@blu

Stephen, My wife's family are from Glasgow. And she has said NO. She has been told that she cannot vote. She is now in London, but her heart obviouly is Scotland. I believe that it is up to the people who decide. Not some pocksy MPs from London, especially Cameron. Who as far as l know Scots dont normally vote Tory. My personnal feeling is that its the Scots who decide. I dont believe costs will rise. The oil Fields will keep Scots thriving for years to come. There was a poll down in London which said that IF the vote was Yes, the majoirty of votes for a general election, would be halved - how true that is l dontr know

Of course she can't vote, she no longer lives here.

Also another really interesting fact NOT all MPs are from London. In fact the majority are from all over the UK.

Of course costsprices may rise. If independance there would be different tax rates and import costs for Scotland not to mention a different currency.

[SilverLady]

Someone also needs to enquire into the running of the YouGov polls. As a regular YouGov survey member, I was asked to fill in last week's Independence Poll. Said 'YES VOTE'. Was not asked to complete the latest poll. How do they choose who to complete Poll?

Originally Posted by SilverLady

Someone also needs to enquire into the running of the YouGov polls. As a regular YouGov survey member, I was asked to fill in last week's Independence Poll. Said 'YES VOTE'. Was not asked to complete the latest poll. How do they choose who to complete Poll?

I believe half of the sample are people are constantly polled and another half are randomly selected. This is done to both try and keep the samples fresh and to measure trends.

While I don't necessarily subscribe to the conspiracy theory implied in this graphic being circulated by some Better Together local groups, the difference between the polling results from last weekend, and the trend line implied by earlier and later results, is quite stark.