Brexit discussion

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

It looked to me as though in the days after the referendum Carney was the only person in high office who wasn't sat there wide eyed like a rabbit in the headlights, I remember seeing headlines in papers like the express that he saved 250 000 jobs in the immediate aftermath whilst the only jobs Dave and Gideon were concerned about were there own.

Spot on. Cameron was frozen with fear. BoJo looked aghast at having won. Farage was busy quaffing champagne.
Meanwhile, Carney took decisive action and steadied the economy.

---------- Post added at 21:13 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------

HMRC: Max Fac would cost British businesses £17bn-£20bn a year! Customs union looks more likely

Business will face extra bureaucracy costing up to £20bn a year if Britain opts for the “max fac” customs deal with the EU favoured by Brexiters, the head of HM Revenue & Customs has claimed.
In a dramatic intervention in the fraught Brexit debate, Jon Thompson said the extra form-filling facing British and foreign companies as they crossed a proposed “streamlined” customs border could cost between £17bn-£20bn, around twice the size of Britain’s net annual contribution to the EU budget.
Mr Thompson’s claim was explosive, since it appeared to destroy the case advanced by pro-Brexit ministers like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove in favour of a light-touch customs border — known as “maximum facilitation” — relying on technology and trusted trader schemes.
Mr Thompson’s claim will strengthen Theresa May’s attempt to pursue an alternative hybrid “customs partnership” plan, that would see Britain remain part of the EU customs area and collect tariffs on behalf of Brussels.
But that scheme, which would involve complex tracking of goods to see if they had ended up in Britain or the EU, has been dismissed as “magical thinking” in Brussels. Pressure is mounting on Mrs May simply to stay in a customs union.

https://www.ft.com/content/fbdc5d58-...4-2218e7146b04

Mr Thompson said there were about 200 million exports to the EU each year that could require customs declarations - and a similar number of imports.
Citing research by the University of Nottingham business school and by KPMG, he said the likely cost of individual declarations was between £20 and £55 - and while an average could not be authoritatively calculated, ministers had been advised a figure of £32.50 was plausible.
Payments on either side of the border could cost £13bn a year in total while it was "reasonable" to assume any rules of origin requirements demanded by the EU could add "several billion pounds"...
The figure is higher than the £13bn UK contribution to the EU in 2016.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44229606

[jonbxx]

I remember ages ago (and I wish I could find it now) there was an interview of what it was like at the Bank of England the night of the 23rd June 2016. There was some secret exit polling going on before the real results and three contingencies were prepared; remain, leave, and too close to call.

It was a long nervous night and next day as the markets globally reacted to the result apparently!

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[/COLOR]HMRC: Max Fac would cost British businesses £17bn-£20bn a year! Customs union looks more likely
https://www.ft.com/content/fbdc5d58-...4-2218e7146b04

That’s £385m a week!

Takes one look at this thread and I just can't help hearing the tune with the following lyrics...."Then put your little hand in mine.....

.....I got you babe...."

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I remember ages ago (and I wish I could find it now) there was an interview of what it was like at the Bank of England the night of the 23rd June 2016. There was some secret exit polling going on before the real results and three contingencies were prepared; remain, leave, and too close to call.

The banks paid for an exit poll and about 3-5pm there was suddenly a rally on the markets which people took as a sign that their exit poll was showing a Remain win.

I don't think it was ever clear what happened there though.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Carth

Mark Carney has claimed the Brexit vote has left households £900 worse off annually, describing the sum as "a lot of money."

He's just another Euro lover that needs to hide the fact he's pretty useless at his job.

Was it the Brexit vote that has increased oil prices?

Was it the Brexit vote that pushed the local councils into the desperate attempts to 'save' £millions every year on their budgets?

Was it the Brexit vote that has decimated the high streets, or caused the ongoing closures of many named companies?

Was it the Brexit vote that has held interest rates at low levels for years?

Was it the Brexit vote that encouraged the shenanigans of the bankers/traders - something we're still paying for?

Still waiting for the milk and honey though and the new blue passport from just over the water..

[tweetiepooh]

Well although Brexit didn't push up oil prices if it devalued Stirling it would affect how much we pay for it.

The whole thing is a lot more complex than Brexit did or didn't do things since as Aslan says in Prince Caspian - "Know what would have happened? No, no-one is ever told that."

[Carth]

Originally Posted by denphone

Still waiting for the milk and honey though and the new blue passport from just over the water..

no matter which way the vote went, there was never going to be milk and honey for 90% of the population.

IMO the fan has been blowing brown smelly stuff for years, the vote didn't turn the fan off, just gave it a wider dispersal

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I am sure someone will be along with the right figures if the Bank of England is wrong in their summary of the economy over the last couple of years....

The question is why, if Mark Carney is so bad, did the government want him to extend his contract?

Because the Government get kudos each time his forecasts are proved wrong! Boom, boom!

---------- Post added at 13:49 ---------- Previous post was at 13:45 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I remember ages ago (and I wish I could find it now) there was an interview of what it was like at the Bank of England the night of the 23rd June 2016. There was some secret exit polling going on before the real results and three contingencies were prepared; remain, leave, and too close to call.

It was a long nervous night and next day as the markets globally reacted to the result apparently!

---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ----------



That’s £385m a week!

That Thompson bloke looked to me like he was contemplating a nervous breakdown. I wonder if he gets an EU pension?

I wouldn't take these figures too seriously, to be honest. It's just part of Project Fear II.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Because the Government get kudos each time his forecasts are proved wrong! Boom, boom!

---------- Post added at 13:49 ---------- Previous post was at 13:45 ----------



That Thompson bloke looked to me like he was contemplating a nervous breakdown. I wonder if he gets an EU pension?

I wouldn't take these figures too seriously, to be honest. It's just part of Project Fear II.

It doesn't look like he worked for the EU looking at his profile page - https://www.gov.uk/government/people/jon-thompson--3

So, if the figures are project fear, what are the real numbers?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

It doesn't look like he worked for the EU looking at his profile page - https://www.gov.uk/government/people/jon-thompson--3

So, if the figures are project fear, what are the real numbers?

Well, that's the whole point, nobody knows because we don't know what form this customs deal will ultimately take. All these figures are wild speculation, and inflated beyond credibility.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, that's the whole point, nobody knows because we don't know what form this customs deal will ultimately take. All these figures are wild speculation, and inflated beyond credibility.

Don't you think we should know by now? It's as if the Govt. doesn't have a clue either....

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, that's the whole point, nobody knows because we don't know what form this customs deal will ultimately take. All these figures are wild speculation, and inflated beyond credibility.

They are not credible. It really is that simples.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Mick

They are not credible. It really is that simples.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge, over the Governor of the Bank of England then Mick ! ( if he is that incompetent, why is he still in a job ?)

Not even the Governor of the bank of England has the foresight to see in the future and what trade deals we can do once we leave.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mick

Not even the Governor of the bank of England has the foresight to see in the future and what trade deals we can do once we leave.

No one can see that far into the future, that's for sure.

How Britain’s departure from the EU stretches to mid-2020s

https://www.ft.com/content/12b54086-...4-2218e7146b04

---------- Post added at 23:22 ---------- Previous post was at 23:18 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, that's the whole point, nobody knows because we don't know what form this customs deal will ultimately take. All these figures are wild speculation, and inflated beyond credibility.

Surely if the figures are wrong in one direction, they could be equally wrong in another and deflated? It's not in Mark Carney's interests to get these things deliberately wrong as it would hinder his job prospects both in the UK and outside it.