Post-Brexit Thread

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

See how many stay, we've always trained our own doctors but can't keep them, perhaps we could force them to stay, it is the will of the people after all

As France and Germany show, the problem is not wanting to train in the first place, not leaving to go elsewhere.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

See how many stay, we've always trained our own doctors but can't keep them, perhaps we could force them to stay, it is the will of the people after all

We could force them to work for the NHS for say 5yrs to repay the money spent on training them,or we could simply make them pay for their own training as in other countries

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by nomadking

As France and Germany show, the problem is not wanting to train in the first place, not leaving to go elsewhere.

No not leaving isn't an issue

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/home/fin...66.fullarticle

---------- Post added at 20:26 ---------- Previous post was at 20:23 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

We could force them to work for the NHS for say 5yrs to repay the money spent on training them,or we could simply make them pay for their own training as in other countries

Or we could make the terms of employment as attractive as other countries offer, just a thought but if people want to stay rather than being forced to stay generally the outcomes are more positive

[techguyone]

What's wrong with agreeing to signing up to x no of years to offset the time and money invested in training you?

Other places do it, notably the forces where, dependant on your specialization and the level you attain, you agree to sign up for a number of years, essentially so the organisation that spent a lot of time and money investing in YOU, ensures that YOU give some back in return.

Or would you rather have it that (as now) people get trained, get a skill useful elsewhere in the world and fark right off without a second thought because 'it's better for them'

At least with option 1, you still get the opportunity to peddle your skill elsewhere, but not until you've somewhat repaid the time and effort put into getting you that skill. Win win for everyone, instead of having to import dodgy 3rd world, barely english speaking/reading doctors with no benefit for anyone.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Adult training is an area the UK has failed miserably in the last few decades it's often just been easy money for the company's that got the contract with no real oversight or means to ensure decent standards. I am hoping as we go forward that those areas of skills shortages are identified and the means to train people to fill those shortages are created so that we become as self sufficient as we can be. It can't be done overnight but we can make a start and if you turn round to most unemployed people and offer them the chance for proper training with a skilled job at the end of it they will jump at the chance.

Indeed since the EU became a political union there has been no need to train our own. Why should we when we can get cheap labour from the EU? Maybe they will start training now. They should because then in 2 years time there will be a workforce. NHS excluded that takes 5-7 years apparently.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Is there not a way freedom of movement could be slowed while negotiations take place? We're leaving anyway and I am sure the EU won't want to swamp us with migrants.

No, and I doubt the EU cares. It's not their problem unless we through negotiations make it their problem in which case we leave ourselves open to reciprocal action.

---------- Post added at 22:55 ---------- Previous post was at 22:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Why can't they just accept the democratic will of the people and get on with it?

It's not that simple. We can just accept it, get on with it, and cut off our nose to spite our face.

We absolutely need to get this right, else we risk affecting so many things both within and without Europe.

As far as democracy goes, that's an entirely different barrel of monkeys. When I see people protesting en masse for proportional representation and an elected second house then I'll take seriously people's complaints about democracy.

---------- Post added at 22:56 ---------- Previous post was at 22:55 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

I don't know but it certainly seems ridiculous to enforce rules that no longer apply .

The trouble is they apply until the end of the two years. I agree it seems ridiculous but it's what the UK agreed to when Gordon Brown, on the quiet, signed the Lisbon Treaty

---------- Post added at 23:00 ---------- Previous post was at 22:56 ----------

Originally Posted by Big Brian

But won't that just move the immigration problem from one area to another?

Immigration isn't necessarily a problem. We have a laundry list of things we could and should do better. It's going to be falling back naturally anyway as our economy is no longer as exceptional as it was.

We need to get our house in order here. We do that we can manage immigration way, way better. We needed it desperately in the 2000s but some of it was the wrong kind, although on hindsight realistically we couldn't expect it all to be exactly what we wanted.

For the most part the migration from the EU has been positive, although Romania and Bulgaria not so positive. Among the worst if not the worst immigration has been from elsewhere, with bits of Africa, Bangladesh and Pakistan standing out.

---------- Post added at 23:23 ---------- Previous post was at 23:00 ----------

This article kinda puts forward the difficulties ahead. For right now it really is that black and white.

This is a good article too.

I don't envy her the fine line she has to tread and am pretty sure that she chose some of her cabinet with the intention of their treading that fine line instead of her.

Seems reasonable based on her performances in PMQs and the reshuffle that she's nothing if not ruthless.

[denphone]

l suspect many of us are not surprised by this...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...09-says-survey

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...MCNEWEML6619I2

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36853952

I'll leave this here..

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by martyh

Have to agree ,when was the last time we heard of someone leaving the UK to claim benefits in Boznia .Whichever way you look at it there is a problem of migrants getting benefits in this country without ever contributing .The number doesn't matter ,it could be 2,000 or 200,000 annually it is wrong and needs to stop .Our own 'lazy' non workers are getting hammered from every angle by the benefits system so why should migrants be any different

Are you likely to? Our papers are not going to be interested in what happens in Bosnia, anymore than the Bosnian papers are interested in what's happening here.

---------- Post added at 12:17 ---------- Previous post was at 12:09 ----------

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Why can't they just accept the democratic will of the people and get on with it?

Because they need to have a lot of things in place or proceeding (such as negotiations) before they can even consider invoking Article 50. If they don't, they risk damaging the economy.

This never was going to happen quickly, and if the Leave campaign ever even hinted it would, they were lying.

---------- Post added at 12:25 ---------- Previous post was at 12:17 ----------

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Adult training is an area the UK has failed miserably in the last few decades it's often just been easy money for the company's that got the contract with no real oversight or means to ensure decent standards. I am hoping as we go forward that those areas of skills shortages are identified and the means to train people to fill those shortages are created so that we become as self sufficient as we can be. It can't be done overnight but we can make a start and if you turn round to most unemployed people and offer them the chance for proper training with a skilled job at the end of it they will jump at the chance.

The problem is to train people it costs money. Beyond school education (which is where the potential votes are), no recent government has shown any real interest in funding education or training. Now, in a lot of cases, businesses have been funding their own training, and I hope this increases, but this tends to be training for staff they already have rather than potential recruits. I hope the government is going to spend at least some of the money it saves on improving training and education, as I think (at least in the STEM subjects) we are sorely lacking.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by denphone

l suspect many of us are not surprised by this...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...09-says-survey

Nothing has actually happened yet. Everything is the same as before. Their figures are not based on any REAL things.

The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI® is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in
over 600 manufacturing companies.

And their figures are not yet complete.

The July flash estimate is based on approximately 85% of expected total PMI survey responses
...
Final July data are published on August 1 for manufacturing and August 3 for services and composite indicators.

Not sure how they can publish full July figures that quickly.

Anyway the rest of the EU isn't doing that great so that by itself will have an impact, eg less exports.

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Nothing has actually happened yet. Everything is the same as before. Their figures are not based on any REAL things.
And their figures are not yet complete.

With 85% of the questionnaires in, I am fairly certain whatever the final 15% of them contains, it isn't going to change the outcome much.

Not sure how they can publish full July figures that quickly.

If they have 85% of the questionnaires in already, it should be relatively easy to publish full July figures that quickly, because they can collate the figures as they receive the questionnaires.

Anyway the rest of the EU isn't doing that great so that by itself will have an impact, eg less exports.

In fairness, all the report is saying is that we are seeing a sharp drop during a period of uncertainty. Both sides said we would have a period of uncertainty if we chose to leave the EU. Businesses are citing Brexit as the cause purely because they don't know how they are going to be affected when we leave the EU, so are less likely to invest a lot of money, at least until the uncertainty is resolved.

We may or may not have had problems had we chosen to remain, but businesses would have been more confident to invest as they would have had at least a vague idea of what was going on.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Stuart

With 85% of the questionnaires in, I am fairly certain whatever the final 15% of them contains, it isn't going to change the outcome much.


If they have 85% of the questionnaires in already, it should be relatively easy to publish full July figures that quickly, because they can collate the figures as they receive the questionnaires.

In fairness, all the report is saying is that we are seeing a sharp drop during a period of uncertainty. Both sides said we would have a period of uncertainty if we chose to leave the EU. Businesses are citing Brexit as the cause purely because they don't know how they are going to be affected when we leave the EU, so are less likely to invest a lot of money, at least until the uncertainty is resolved.

We may or may not have had problems had we chosen to remain, but businesses would have been more confident to invest as they would have had at least a vague idea of what was going on.

The people supplying the data won't have full up-to-date data themselves.

As can be seen from the graph, this PMI has been on a downward trend for a couple of years. It also fluctuates wildly from month to month. It dropped dramatically just before the 2012 Olympics, however GDP shot upwards.

We'll find out soon enough if the predictions of a recession are true or not. No point arguing about it at the moment. I would say that many analysts seem to think it is but this is one of those things that will be proven right or wrong.

[Osem]

Everyone's trying to create a juicy story out of something before the facts are properly known. The veracity of the data doesn't or the context doesn't seem to matter as much as creating something to fill the pages and airwaves with, much of it pure speculation...

[Big Brian]

With 85% of the questionnaires in, I am fairly certain whatever the final 15% of them contains, it isn't going to change the outcome much.

Quote:
Not sure how they can publish full July figures that quickly.

Remember Stats are just that.

Not fully as there is only 85% but it gives them a good idea from those 6oo firms. Ask another 600 firms and you would get a different answer.

---------- Post added at 10:16 ---------- Previous post was at 10:09 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

We'll find out soon enough if the predictions of a recession are true or not. No point arguing about it at the moment. I would say that many analysts seem to think it is but this is one of those things that will be proven right or wrong.

It has never been denied even by us leavers there will be a mini recession. The then Chancellor said 2 quarters and that sounds about right. However, he also said it would be immediate which is bunkum. Yes he did and his argument was why plunge ourselves deliberately into a mini recession?

The point is that it's not going to be the doom and gloom predicted. They're not investing because it's a bad thing, they are waiting to see how things go with the talks. The delay of A50 is going to cause more uncertainty and may even push any recession into 3 or even 4 quarters. That's not the fault of we who voted leave, its the fault of not invoking A50 when Cameron himself said he'd do it straight away.