Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Chris

I think the Yes inclination has probably got as high as it's going to. The Daily Record/Survation poll quoted by the Graun shows a slight drop for Yes, the only polling organisation that shows steady or rising support for Yes is coincidentally the same one used by Yes Scotland, the SNP and Wings Over Scotland. Anyone who can spot what those three have in common, answers on a postcard please.

Meanwhile the Better Together camp is sticking to its plan, no matters how much the
Nats want everyone to believe they're panicking. They have got all the bad news out early, on the basis that when a family stops fighting, the facts they were fighting over are still facts. Come referendum day the arguments over the currency and the EU will have given way to cold, hard uncertainty over the consequences of a Yes vote for the currency everyone grew up with and nobody wants to lose. And, they haven't actually embarked on their own national campaign yet. So far, the UK Gov has done its bit, the EU has done its bit, but BT is yet to launch its full-on charm offensive. That gets underway after the European elections, much closer to the actual referendum, when it will matter.

Let's not forget, there has never been a settled majority in favour of separatism in Scotland, the SNP did not win an outright majority at the Holyrood elections in 2011, and the deliberate feeding of unremittingly negative messages into the campaign by the No camp has not resulted in the sort of mass movement against the UK that the seps predicted and are still desperately hoping for.

Once Better Together really gets started, and shows the seps off for the narrow minded, insular, reckless lot they are, the seps will be sunk.

When are they going to get started?

[Mr Angry]

Originally Posted by Damien

Recent opinion Polls haven't shown an increase in support for the Yes vote:

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2...gress-stalled/

I am also not really sure what's going on with The Guardian's recent set of stories where some unnamed source adds something to the debate. The last story didn't take off precisely because the minister who said the Currency Union happened didn't show their face so we had no way of knowing if they were credible or not. Also the 'diplomatic corps' don't have a say nor are they psephologists.....

Damien, I'm merely linking to reports covering poll results. Anyone can argue with the results but we cannot, reasonably, deny them. Prof Curtice himself merely proffers his opinion on the poll results he does not deny an increase.

I too am somewhat perplexed by the nature of recent stories which have appeared in the Guardian (hence "Drip, drip, drip").

That said, you don't have to be a psephologist just to have an opinion.

Originally Posted by Mr Angry

Damien, I'm merely linking to reports covering poll results. Anyone can argue with the results but we cannot, reasonably, deny them. Prof Curtice himself merely proffers his opinion on the poll results he does not deny an increase.

I too am somewhat perplexed by the nature of recent stories which have appeared in the Guardian (hence "Drip, drip, drip).

That said, you don't have to be a psephologist just to have an opinion.

Opinions/Anecdotal evidence are not the plural of facts....

[Mr Angry]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Opinions/Anecdotal evidence are not the plural of facts....

Quite. No one has suggested they are.

Originally Posted by Mr Angry

Damien, I'm merely linking to reports covering poll results. Anyone can argue with the results but we cannot, reasonably, deny them. Prof Curtice himself merely proffers his opinion on the poll results he does not deny an increase.

I too am somewhat perplexed by the nature of recent stories which have appeared in the Guardian (hence "Drip, drip, drip").

That said, you don't have to be a psephologist just to have an opinion.

You don't but the results do not show an increase in Yes. It appears to have stabilised. However I would suggest that an opinion that Yes is gaining is simply incorrect as the polls have not moved in their direction. I am not arguing with the results. The numbers are there. Yes has not gained in the last few polls.

[Chad]

Alex Salmond gets bullied by The Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...s-expense.html

"The First Minister has dismissed as “ridiculous frippery” demands he account for the cost of his September 2012 stay at the five-star Peninsula Hotel, even arguing that disclosing the information would jeopardise his safety."

"Paul Martin, the Scottish Labour party’s business manager, said: "Perhaps this is how Alex Salmond thinks the president of an independent Scotland should behave but most Scots will be embarrassed and angry by his disregard for their money.”

[Hom3r]

My grandad was born in Glasgow, and he would be spinning in his grave over what that twonk Salmond want to do to Scotland.

He proudly fought for Great Britain.

After the European elections, so second half of May.

---------- Post added at 21:31 ---------- Previous post was at 21:30 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

When are they going to get started?

[Mr Angry]

Originally Posted by Damien

You don't but the results do not show an increase in Yes. It appears to have stabilised. However I would suggest that an opinion that Yes is gaining is simply incorrect as the polls have not moved in their direction. I am not arguing with the results. The numbers are there. Yes has not gained in the last few polls.

I'm confused (clearly). Curtice, who you yourself cited, states in his commentary of April 6th inst "The poll puts the Yes vote on 41%, No on 46%. Both votes are up one point on Panelbase’s previous poll...".

Being "up one point" on a previous poll surely indicates an increase? Whether or not that one point reflects as a lead increase is largely irrelevant.

[Derek]

One senior diplomat, who asked not to be named,

How come all the people with positive things to say about the yes campaign want to keep their identity secret?

[Mr Angry]

Originally Posted by Derek

How come all the people with positive things to say about the yes campaign want to keep their identity secret?

Afraid of being bullied?

Latest Panelbase survey results...

Yes - 40%
No - 45%
Undecided - 15%

Both Yes and No down 1%, gap remains the same.

[Jimi]

It's coming home.

What - the yes vote going down is a sign of success?

Okaaaaay, then....

I think he's getting excited about the 5-point gap between Yes and No.

However, I say again, Panelbase's panel base was compromised late last year by a cybernat mass sign-up campaign. They are the only polling organisation used by nationalists and they are the only polling organisation that shows Yes support at this level.

A far more reliable poll would be the Survation/Daily Record poll also issued this week which puts Yes on 37, 10 points behind No on 47. That poll also shows a statistically significant 4-point drop in support for Yes amongst women, possibly as a result of the SNP's child care policy blowing up in Eck's face when someone pointed out there aren't enough working women in Scotland to pay for it.