U.S Election 2016

Not sure if anyone has been keeping up but in the last couple of weeks Trump polls have plummeted after many, many mishaps including the way he responded to a Muslim who spoke against him at the Democratic convention and a whole other list of things that I've forgotten so quickly do they happen.

Anyway now he is 10 points down in polls and he's gone and say the '2nd amendment people' could 'do something' about Clinton: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politi...htmlstory.html

I honestly wonder if he is throwing his own campaign...

[MalteseFalcon]

He'll still win, look at all the polls that said Miliband would win in 2015. I'm confident that Trump will be the next POTUS.

[adzii_nufc]

Interesting result either way, an absolute outsider which will show that American Citizens must really be fed up of the same old BS enough to vote in someone like Trump. Or a First Female president.

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

He'll still win, look at all the polls that said Miliband would win in 2015. I'm confident that Trump will be the next POTUS.

No he won't ,even some Republican leaders are backing Clinton and i really think that Trump knows he's way over his head and is deliberately sabotaging
his own campaign

[MalteseFalcon]

Yes he will, if Clinton wins ban me from here until January 1 2017.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

Yes he will, if Clinton wins ban me from here until January 1 2017.

He won't as when it comes down to it America will not vote such a idiot into the White House.

Well let's see. It seems unlikely at the moment given the chaos in his own campaign, his own words and the desertion of many Republicans. It's more unlikely than Brexit was but Brexit still won and there is a long time to go in his election.

I do think he might be tanking his own campaign though.

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

He'll still win, look at all the polls that said Miliband would win in 2015. I'm confident that Trump will be the next POTUS.

It is a mistake to compare polling methods in the UK with those in the USA. The data on registered voters goes right down to local polling districts in the US, thanks to the primary elections system. They can determine which way things are going with a far higher degree of confidence. If Clinton has a 10 point lead then quite apart from it being well outside the margin of error for a British poll, you can be confident that the lead is real.

Originally Posted by Chris

It is a mistake to compare polling methods in the UK with those in the USA. The data on registered voters goes right down to local polling districts in the US, thanks to the primary elections system. They can determine which way things are going with a far higher degree of confidence. If Clinton has a 10 point lead then quite apart from it being well outside the margin of error for a British poll, you can be confident that the lead is real.

National polls weight against the census. I doubt they pull the registered voter records per district. I think state polls do go against the state's registered voters though.

I think what makes the US different, aside from their better polling, is also a much larger amount of minorities. This is what cost Romney 4 years ago and these groups hate Trump more. A poll came out with Trump at 1.5% among black people. He is falling even further with women too. His whole strategy seems to be to turn out white men to unprecedented levels and pray but even there support is dropping.

All the stuff he said is catching up with him.

Trump may be an idiot but trying to get the 2nd amendment lot voting for him is a smart move as most gun supporters fear clinton getting in and there are a lot of them. Trouble is it's the only smart thing he has done lately and despite their numbers I'm not sure they will compensate for all those he has alienated. Plus come next week who knows he might well turn round and offend that group as well as that seems to have been his thing say something that gets a group on side then later come out with something that offends.

If i had to put money down I'd put it on him having early stage alzheimer's and i cannot see him making it to the whitehouse not sure at the minute if that's better or worse for the US and the world.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by martyh

No he won't ,even some Republican leaders are backing Clinton and i really think that Trump knows he's way over his head and is deliberately sabotaging
his own campaign

He reminds me very much of Ross Perot and his campaign

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Trump may be an idiot but trying to get the 2nd amendment lot voting for him is a smart move as most gun supporters fear clinton getting in and there are a lot of them. Trouble is it's the only smart thing he has done lately and despite their numbers I'm not sure they will compensate for all those he has alienated. Plus come next week who knows he might well turn round and offend that group as well as that seems to have been his thing say something that gets a group on side then later come out with something that offends..

The NRA were always going to be against Clinton. It's a solid demographic for the Republicans.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

Yes he will, if Clinton wins ban me from here until January 1 2017.

Be careful what you wish for.

Originally Posted by Damien

National polls weight against the census. I doubt they pull the registered voter records per district. I think state polls do go against the state's registered voters though.

I think what makes the US different, aside from their better polling, is also a much larger amount of minorities. This is what cost Romney 4 years ago and these groups hate Trump more. A poll came out with Trump at 1.5% among black people. He is falling even further with women too. His whole strategy seems to be to turn out white men to unprecedented levels and pray but even there support is dropping.

All the stuff he said is catching up with him.

The news networks certainly go that deep on election night - the whole business of "calling" the result during the count relies on knowing which districts haven't declared yet and how many registered voters on each side there are.

There must by now be polls in many of the states - what are they saying?

Originally Posted by Chris

The news networks certainly go that deep on election night - the whole business of "calling" the result during the count relies on knowing which districts haven't declared yet and how many registered voters on each side there are.

Yes but there the individual precincts are reporting their results for real. They're very good at calling elections based off that, in fact they have a good idea very early on the night based on the East Coast states but the polling doesn't go that in-depth.

There must by now be polls in many of the states - what are they saying?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

Trump is having a hard time putting away heavy red states such as North Carolina which is typically Republican but currently has Clinton ahead and Arizona which is a toss-up.

Clinton is ahead in Ohio, Florida and +9 in Pennsylvania.

If this were election day Clinton could afford to lose Flordia and Ohio and still win comfortably.