Post-Brexit Thread

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

The leaked list shows all the major brown nosed stayers picking up gongs, knighthoods, companions of Honour, etc.

Out of curiosity, are there any Brexiters on that list?

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:41 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

I find it amazing that so much is being attributed to Brexit .For the record we have not even begun the leaving process yet so we have not 'ditched the EU' and neither are are all the warnings about Brexit being proven groundless ,they may be proven groundless in the future or they may be proven correct we simply do not know yet .

---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:06 ----------



I think a lot depends on location and type of construction .For instance up here small scale house building has gone beserk but i do see signs that large scale house building has slowed as has local authority projects.

Very strange. Why didn't they just carry on as normal? Nothing has changed.

---------- Post added at 12:45 ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Well the media needs stuff to report. So in Brexit they have the story which keeps on giving. Every time there's a problem it's down to Brexit, then every time there's some good news it's in spite of Brexit.

What I notice more is the relative absence, in the places I frequent, of stuff about what's going on in the EU, migration, banking problems etc.

There was some more bad news about the Italian banks the other day but I didn't see it reported widely.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e67c83c4-5...#axzz4GI3boQrP

Is the bad weather recently attributed to Brexit? I ask because they blame everything else when they could just carry on trading as normal. But no, they have to carry on making problems for themselves. I can understand it had we left on the Friday after the vote.

---------- Post added at 12:51 ---------- Previous post was at 12:45 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Interest rates lowered to 0.25%, MPC forecasting rates to go to 'close to, but a little above, zero' by end of year.

£60 billion of new QE to buy government debt, £10 billion to purchase corporate bonds, up to £100 billion to support lending.

Seems the BoE are indeed somewhat 'chilled'.

EDIT: This is going to harm pensions and investments further as gilt yields have dropped considerably already.

EDIT 2: In better news while the BoE are 'chilled' they are not predicting recession, just slower growth, which is not as bad as it could have been.

I don't understand all the financial stuff but printing money only puts off for a while as it has to be paid back. Wish they'd put the interest on my credit card at 0.25%.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Is the bad weather recently attributed to Brexit? I ask because they blame everything else when they could just carry on trading as normal. But no, they have to carry on making problems for themselves. I can understand it had we left on the Friday after the vote.

You seem to be saying that firms are causing themselves problems which is ridiculous. Companies are responding to try and ensure themselves and their shareholders make the most money possible, and mitigate risk.

This is what you voted for. Almost everyone said there would be some rough times immediately after the vote. Until we know where we are going forward companies will continue to take steps to protect themselves. Most companies are, necessarily, defensive during uncertain periods. If they weren't behaving in that manner their shareholders would certainly have a case to sue them.

The actions of the BoE should help a ton incidentally. What they've done is decisive and should prevent the drama turning into a crisis.

While I have derided him in the past Mark Carney has been a rare voice of reason in all of this and the actions he and the MPC have taken have been proportionate, proactive and eminently reasonable so far.

I'm just listening to him saying that banks have absolutely no excuse not to pass on the rate cut they just carried out, as the other policy measures have ensured they don't.

---------- Post added at 12:57 ---------- Previous post was at 12:56 ----------

Originally Posted by Big Brian

I don't understand all the financial stuff but printing money only puts off for a while as it has to be paid back. Wish they'd put the interest on my credit card at 0.25%.

Indeed you don't, given that in this case it doesn't

Printing money increases inflation generally, it doesn't involve any payback. Neither does it mean that the government bonds that they are going to buy with some of this will have to be paid back. The BoE can cancel the bonds. They create the currency, they can also destroy it. It's rather obscure however money these days is, almost entirely, nothing but numbers on a computer. If inflation were not an issue the BoE could 'print' it ad infinitum.

The BoE are doing what they can to try and keep the economy motoring.

When you can create your own currency, accepted worldwide, then I'm sure your credit card can go near 0.25%.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Very strange. Why didn't they just carry on as normal? Nothing has changed.

On the contrary ,everything has changed .Companies in general have no idea what UKplc will look like in 5-10yrs time and construction companies in particular are particularly vulnerable to changes in government policy .They also rely heavily on lending to build the houses and the ability of customers to borrow the money to buy the houses they build .Any uncertainty in financial markets will without a doubt negatively affect house builders.

What the government do over the next 6 months will determine the ability of what large companies can achieve over the next 10 yrs.What we are seeing now is a sharp intake of breath waiting for the government to make it's move.

[nomadking]

If you look at the graph of this PMI thing, it goes down EVERY year at about this time. That wouldn't be the result of people going on holiday would it?

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by nomadking

If you look at the graph of this PMI thing, it goes down EVERY year at about this time. That wouldn't be the result of people going on holiday would it?

Yep. All these events are just a blip due to people going on holiday.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Yep. All these events are just a blip due to people going on holiday.

Everything is following on from this PMI thing. If that is false, eg as in 2012 when GDP shot up, then everything else is based on that falsehood.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36924098

Pound drops again..But hey that's just part of readjustments right? It's not going to keep happening is it?

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by Chris

Given that the remain campaign was painting pictures of Armageddon if we voted leave, a sudden chill immediately post-vote is pretty much inevitable. Campaigners from the PM and the chancellor downwards talked the economy down. Guess what, if the country's two most senior political leaders do that, it tends to become self-fulfilling.

We will just have to see how long things take to pick up once people realise the sky isn't actually falling.

In fairness, both campaigns said there would be a small period of re-adjustment, potentially a recession after we voted to leave Europe. The only thing they differed on was the length and depth.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36924098

Pound drops again..But hey that's just part of readjustments right? It's not going to keep happening is it?

If you had shares in a company and everybody was saying if X happens then the share price would go down, what would you and everybody else do if X happened. You and everybody else would sell, which is what would drive the price down and not whether X happened or not. When people were gleefully saying that the value of Sterling would go down, the markets had little option but to sell Sterling, thereby driving the price down. It was where enough people are made to believe that something will either go up or down that makes it happen. A self-fulfilling prophecy. By predicting something, you make it happen.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Everything is following on from this PMI thing. If that is false, eg as in 2012 when GDP shot up, then everything else is based on that falsehood.

Well, there's that, there's things like this:



And various other indicators. The sum of that data pushed the BoE into acting to try and get stimulus into an economy that was already faltering somewhat.

The PMI is accurate far more often than not. Where it and GDP disagree it's usually GDP that is adjusted.

None of this is in any way unexpected, indeed the situation is somewhat more rosy than the apocalypse that we were told we would be in for. Still, whatever you need to tell yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StTqXEQ2l-Y

---------- Post added at 18:17 ---------- Previous post was at 18:14 ----------

Originally Posted by nomadking

If you had shares in a company and everybody was saying if X happens then the share price would go down, what would you and everybody else do if X happened. You and everybody else would sell, which is what would drive the price down and not whether X happened or not. When people were gleefully saying that the value of Sterling would go down, the markets had little option but to sell Sterling, thereby driving the price down. It was where enough people are made to believe that something will either go up or down that makes it happen. A self-fulfilling prophecy. By predicting something, you make it happen.

The pound dropped because interest rates dropped. It's pretty simple: interest rates dropped which lowered returns on a bunch of investments denominated in Sterling so people withdrew their money.

Nothing at all to do with perceptions, entirely factually based.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Well, there's that, there's things like this:



And various other indicators. The sum of that data pushed the BoE into acting to try and get stimulus into an economy that was already faltering somewhat.

The PMI is accurate far more often than not. Where it and GDP disagree it's usually GDP that is adjusted.

None of this is in any way unexpected, indeed the situation is somewhat more rosy than the apocalypse that we were told we would be in for. Still, whatever you need to tell yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StTqXEQ2l-Y

---------- Post added at 18:17 ---------- Previous post was at 18:14 ----------



The pound dropped because interest rates dropped. It's pretty simple: interest rates dropped which lowered returns on a bunch of investments denominated in Sterling so people withdrew their money.

Nothing at all to do with perceptions, entirely factually based.

Why would sales in JUNE be affected by the referendum towards the end of that month?

Interest rates dropped in part because the PREVIOUS drop in the Pound and that was from the self-fulfilling prophecy of the scare mongers.

Gauranted somebody and likely some groups are making money off this and as long as they can things will continue in practical terms nothing has changed a plan has been announced with zero action.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Why would sales in JUNE be affected by the referendum towards the end of that month?

I didn't say the referendum affected them. You wanted proof the economy was getting weaker and data justified action by the BoE.

Originally Posted by nomadking

Interest rates dropped in part because the PREVIOUS drop in the Pound and that was from the self-fulfilling prophecy of the scare mongers.

The usual response to a weakening currency is to raise interest rates to promote capital inflow. Massively simplifying the higher the interest rates the better the returns people can get.

The level of denial required to blame all negative impacts of the referendum result on 'scare mongers' is astounding. Companies and the BoE aren't campaigning anymore, and there is no 'Project Fear' now, it's Project Reality. The Bank of England are both accepting that it's bad and wanting to make a success of it, as I think all sane people are.

You are apparently proud you voted the way you did so own the consequences, both good and bad. That way if the economy takes off after the rough period you can congratulate yourself without being a disingenuous hypocrite.

Should it all end up going right I will be delighted to have been wrong for having been down on the result.

Growth in 2017 is now forecast at just 0.8pc, down from a previous forecast of 2.3pc in May. Bank staff calculated that the Brexit vote had “conservatively” knocked 2.5 percentage points off growth over the next three years, even after accounting for the stimulus measures it announced.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research policies calculated that the Bank’s policy measures could stimulate the economy by as much as 0.5pc over the next two years. However, the Resolution Foundation said the impact of the weaker pound on inflation was likely to hit average real earnings by £615 in 2018 compared with a vote to remain in the EU.

Well in fairness Ignition for most of the campaign you were saying the doom and gloom from remain wasn't very reliable and i believe you called more then a bit of it rubbish so you are the last one to be honest having a go at anyone. Absolutely nothing in practical terms has changed there is zero reason for all this to be happening now but it is and rather then argue about what caused it perhaps we should be looking at a system that requires no actual change to go into meltdown. Perhaps it's time for some very radical reform of the financial markets given the impact they have on people and seemingly respond to a fart in the wind.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Out of curiosity, are there any Brexiters on that list?

Pretty sure SamCam's hairdresser voted out...