Post-Brexit Thread

[Ignitionnet]

And in the real world where we don't get everything we want...

The rest of your post is a scary scenario. That'd be a massive expansion of the state that we can't afford.

[Gavin78]

Jamie - I'm guessing you voted in because you have a bad outlook for a better UK...how do you think it would have gone down when the EU moved to having its own forces and being one nation and the UK moving closer ties to becoming part of the EU?

It was only a matter of time IN or OUT with them our special status was subject to how nice they wanted to play in the current climate once things got moving along in the EU we would have had to have moved with them our special status was not unlimited.

There are plenty of mobile phone providers that is what I am saying. Vodafone might make money a lot of money but customers will just move to another provider should they go plenty of room to shop around and someone waiting to take them.

I'm sure VM wouldn't hold back if sky left the UK in taking their customers would they.

Every knows this was going to be a rocky ride after leaving we have pretty much peeved off 27 member states. once we have ridden through the waves and the dust settles we'll know what better position the UK is. it is way to early to tell anything it hasn't even been a week since the referendum and the IN crowd want blood.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

<Snip>

No-one said anything about Vodafone not doing business in the UK anymore. They were referring to them moving their legal entity out of the UK.

The result being a loss of tax revenues and jobs.

Companies like HSBC, Vodafone, etc, being domiciled in the UK brings a not inconsiderable amount of money.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

And in the real world where we don't get everything we want...

The rest of your post is a scary scenario. That'd be a massive expansion of the state that we can't afford.

It would be both foolish and arrogant to think we'll get everything we want out of the EU. Anyway we don't want everything. We don't want Political Union, Freedom of Movement or in a growing number of cases, the single Market. The best that could happen if we don't accept Freedom of Movement are private deals between EU countries.

---------- Post added at 12:17 ---------- Previous post was at 12:14 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

No-one said anything about Vodafone not doing business in the UK anymore. They were referring to them moving their legal entity out of the UK.

The result being a loss of tax revenues and jobs.

Companies like HSBC, Vodafone, etc, being domiciled in the UK brings a not inconsiderable amount of money.

And they won't do it unless they don't like the final deal from the EU.

[jamiefrost]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Jamie - I'm guessing you voted in because you have a bad outlook for a better UK...how do you think it would have gone down when the EU moved to having its own forces and being one nation and the UK moving closer ties to becoming part of the EU?

It was only a matter of time IN or OUT with them our special status was subject to how nice they wanted to play in the current climate once things got moving along in the EU we would have had to have moved with them our special status was not unlimited.

There are plenty of mobile phone providers that is what I am saying. Vodafone might make money a lot of money but customers will just move to another provider should they go plenty of room to shop around and someone waiting to take them.

I'm sure VM wouldn't hold back if sky left the UK in taking their customers would they.

Every knows this was going to be a rocky ride after leaving we have pretty much peeved off 27 member states. once we have ridden through the waves and the dust settles we'll know what better position the UK is. it is way to early to tell anything it hasn't even been a week since the referendum and the IN crowd want blood.

We may or may not have been able to carry on with our special position within the EU, if we had to become part of an EU army or part of a super state (neither certain) and that point we could have come out.

It's the fallacy and misrepresentation of the EU from the cost, democratic process through to immigration and the blase attitude to the potential impact on the economy that i find most worrying at the attitude held by some that leaving the EU will a panacea for all of the counties problems.

As as for Vodafone leaving, the UK part of their operation will stay, their headquarters moving will take all of that income, tax returns etc. and this cannot be replaced by other providers.

The best possible outcome is a zero net gain in this instance and we have taken a huge gamble without anyone showing any hard defined economic
upsides to leaving the EU.

J

J

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

It would be both foolish and arrogant to think we'll get everything we want out of the EU. Anyway we don't want everything. We don't want Political Union, Freedom of Movement or in a growing number of cases, the single Market. The best that could happen if we don't accept Freedom of Movement are private deals between EU countries.

You can't make bilateral deals with EU countries from outside. Our inability to make deals with third parties was one of people's objections.

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

And in the real world where we don't get everything we want...

The rest of your post is a scary scenario. That'd be a massive expansion of the state that we can't afford.

Not sure, who you are replying to, but if it's me then I should say I do understand that we won't get everything we want but we might get more if we accept freedom of movement and demonstrate practically to Europe that we are not a nation of racists and that we are intending to continue to trade with them.

As for the other points mentioned, this is not something that would be implemented or fixed overnight but we can't continue to carry 5% of the population in the current financial environment.

Any changes would be gradual over a period of time because as you said we haven't the finances to do this all in one go but we do need to make a start.

I remember seeing a TV programme about the young unemployed where they followed 5 young people one of whom stated that he was quite happy to receive his job seekers allowance because it meant that, as he was living at home, he could go out boozing every night with his friends and never have to work.

I also remember another TV programme which reported on the closure of Remploy and the emotional impact it had on the employees most of whom had special needs. It resonated with me as my sister has Down's syndrome.

Things do have to change but it will be by a process of gradual evolution not rapid revolution.

If the French get their way it may well be the other way round.

---------- Post added at 13:36 ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Isn't it odd how not that long ago folks were banging on about how great it'd be if the banks and big fat corporations took their business and 'immorality' elsewhere yet now people are trembling at the very prospect that they 'might'. Big companies 'threatening' to move in order to influence policy isn't new, it's what they do to get the best deal for themselves and people panicking prematurely about it doesn't work in our favour it works in theirs. Some people really do need to get a grip of what's going on here and calm down a little... well a lot actually, it's pathetic.

Agreed. A period of calm reflection is required.

[Big Brian]

Britain wins Brexit breathing space at gloomy EU summit

Brussels: EU leaders have given Britain breathing space by accepting it needed time to absorb a shock Brexit vote before triggering a divorce but insisted the crunch move could not wait months.

A humiliated Prime Minister David Cameron came face-to-face with European colleagues for the first time since last week's vote at a Brussels summit which leaders said was "sad" but pragmatic.

Trillions of dollars have been wiped off world markets since Thursday's vote to leave the EU, while the United Kingdom's future has been thrown into doubt after Scotland said it would push for a new independence referendum.

Read More Here: http://zeenews.india.com/news/europe...t_1901332.html

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Britain wins Brexit breathing space at gloomy EU summit

Brussels: EU leaders have given Britain breathing space by accepting it needed time to absorb a shock Brexit vote before triggering a divorce but insisted the crunch move could not wait months.

A humiliated Prime Minister David Cameron came face-to-face with European colleagues for the first time since last week's vote at a Brussels summit which leaders said was "sad" but pragmatic.

Trillions of dollars have been wiped off world markets since Thursday's vote to leave the EU, while the United Kingdom's future has been thrown into doubt after Scotland said it would push for a new independence referendum.

Read More Here: http://zeenews.india.com/news/europe...t_1901332.html

That's a very positive and most welcome gesture but we need the Conservative party to treat this matter with a sense of urgency and get the new PM elected as quickly as possible and to provide some feedback to the EU to show we are moving things along.

[Kursk]

Britain "wins" Brexit breathing space? I see it differently. The EU should not try to dictate timetables to the UK.

We have a government leadership contest, a labour party in crisis, a possible further Scottish referendum. These are serious times for our future; times in which the EU will become less relevant and we cannot rush through the process on their say so.

We are taking back control and will do things in good time; at our pace and when we have a government in place to take care of business.

In the process, the EU will need to take a good look at itself and divest itself of those who would turn a drama into a crisis by trying to exploit the referendum "split" of opinion.

The vote is cast and decided; there can be no re-runs. All of the UK should be united behind the decision.

And I would say to Scotland, choose your friends carefully.

[Ignitionnet]

We know at least the point they're starting negotiations from, and they're unequivocal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

There can be "no single market a la carte" for the UK, EU leaders have warned, after meeting in Brussels to discuss the UK vote to leave the bloc.

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, said anyone wanting access to the EU's internal market had to adhere to strict criteria "without exception".

There could be "no negotiation without notification", he said.

The German and French leaders and the Council President said the same.

French President Francois Hollande has spoke in Brussels, reiterating the warning on freedom of movement made by European officials.

He said if the UK wants to keep access to the single market it must play by rules, pay into the EU's budget and respect all four freedoms, including movement, adding: "You can't accept some but not others."

On the happier side and as expected:

And he said there was "no sense" in scrapping the agreement which sees UK border agents working on French soil to keep migrants trying to reach Britain in Calais. The agreement is bilateral, not at EU level, he noted.

So no 'spite'. If anything if I'm honest I've been pleasantly surprised with the reaction from across the water. Regretful, some sadness but businesslike which is about the best we could've hoped for under the circumstances. Fingers crossed, and we should be fine as long as Farage doesn't go on another rant, gloating and being obnoxious, it remains that way.

Perhaps more relevant than just hearing it collectively, Merkel saying the same thing to her own parliament too:

Britain cannot expect to “keep the privileges” of ties with the EU without any of the obligations, Angela Merkel has said, as the EU Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said he had imposed a ban on EU officials from holding secret Brexit talks with the UK.

In a clear rebuttal to Boris Johnson’s claim that the country could retain access to single market – seen as vital to the economy and jobs market – the German Chancellor told her parliament that free access to the single market was only for countries that accepted the free movement of people, capital and goods.

She's also said that those who think the UK somehow isn't leaving the EU are fooling themselves, and she is of course right on that score.

EDIT: Just to add Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary who's been pretty aggressive in his criticism of EU migration policy has said much the same regarding free movement. We will get no special dispensations if we want full single market access.

I refer back to http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35846878-post732.html

[Gavin78]

So my understanding of it is that if they allow freedom of movement we can trade. but I am guessing there will be other policies in place?

[ntluser]

I think that the EU has realised that they too have got it wrong and over -reacted. Mrs Merkel's suggestion to play nice is working its way into proceedings.

We'll probably have to accept free movement if we want access to the single market and to keep our banks however we can rework our UK planning so that the problems caused by free movement can be dealt with more effectively and efficiently.

It's good news about the Border agreement which is a sign that common sense and a modicum of good will have entered the proceedings.

As for the "privileges" , I think we knew that no country gets the privileges without paying a price. Just wondering how much they will expect us to contribute and if it will be less, the same or more than we are paying now?

[Ignitionnet]

Less. The rest of the EU were jealous of the deal we had as far as contributions go, that'll be gone, so the amount may end up somewhat surprising.

We will have an 'itemised' bill, as it were, with contributions to various EU programmes if we want to participate in them, which we will, alongside the EEA grant.

I can almost see the UKIP posters complaining about still sending money to the EU now.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by jamiefrost

I think one of the biggest issues will be passporting of financial services within the EU, financial services are around 12% of GDP currently and without the ability to conduct these services the finance sector will take a massive hit.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/P...g/default.aspx

It as possible to get these rights as per Switzerland but it won't be cheap even if the EU counties are of a mind to let us.

J

And we won't even notice the hit. It wont be obvious, there won't be a mass exodus of banks, what there will be is when a bank opens a new office or department or replaces one it won't be here, it'll be in Dublin or frankfurt they'll move without anyone noticing. No one likes them anyway. It'll be like this Heathrow Gatwick saga whilst we mess about pandering to self interest skippol is quietly hoovering up large amounts of traffic