Russia has invaded Ukraine

[jfman]

It’s an entirely serious prospect that US-aligned actors within Ukraine could remove Zelensky. It’s not be particularly hard given the cost to date in dollars and lives to sell an end to the war, reconstruction and the return of refugees to a population.

Then we could see what “Agency” decides to do next.

I don’t agree that the rest of my post requires a Trump win.

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s an entirely serious prospect that US-aligned actors within Ukraine could remove Zelensky. It’s not be particularly hard given the cost to date in dollars and lives to sell an end to the war, reconstruction and the return of refugees to a population.

Then we could see what “Agency” decides to do next.

I don’t agree that the rest of my post requires a Trump win.

[1andrew1]

Polish man arrested over alleged Russia plot to assassinate Zelenskyy

A Polish man has been arrested and charged with plans to help Russia's military intelligence carry out an alleged plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, say prosecutors.

The suspect, identified only as Pawel K, was allegedly seeking contact with Russians directly involved in the war in Ukraine and planning to pass on detailed security information to agents about Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland.

The man's tasks would help Russian special services plan a possible assassination of Mr Zelenskyy, said prosecutors.

He was arrested in Poland on Wednesday, the office of the country's national prosecutor said in a statement.

https://www.bing.com/search?pglt=41&...ANNTA1&PC=LCTS

The US House of Representatives have passed Bill 8035 ($60.8 billion in Ukraine Aid until September 2024)

Yea’s 310
Nay’s 112
NV 8
Present 1



Now goes to the Senate, where it is expected to pass (it’s been held up in the House for a couple of months), and then goes to President Biden for final authorisation.

It’ll pass the senate, and Biden will sign it in to law, and then his escalation management numpties will work on persuading him not to spend most of it. There are still some people in the Biden White House with a Canute-like belief in their ability to direct history. Meanwhile on this side of the Atlantic, Macron has the bit between les dentes and a conviction that this is the issue he can lead Europe on. The Balts, the Poles, most of the rest of Eastern Europe, France and the UK are ramping up their assistance and Ukraine is getting terrifyingly good at asymmetric attacks deep inside Russia.

[jfman]

They’ll spend most of it, that’s American jobs after all. Whether it moves the dial on the front line is another question entirely. The odd terrorist attack does not a successful counteroffensive make.

Then we get all the excitement all over again in six months time, when the house can stall until the next President pulls the plug.

Originally Posted by jfman

They’ll spend most of it, that’s American jobs after all. Whether it moves the dial on the front line is another question entirely. The odd terrorist attack does not a successful counteroffensive make.

Then we get all the excitement all over again in six months time, when the house can stall until the next President pulls the plug.

I think it’ll stabilise the front line. For Ukraine to advance, it needs the equipment commensurate with the rapid manoeuvre warfare its officer corps was trained on in Nato countries during 2023. The US has repeatedly resisted supplying such equipment (principally, F-16s in large numbers).

It is more likely that this war will now take significantly longer than it ought to, and it will end when Ukraine has done intolerable damage in the deep Russian rear - something they are getting very good at. Ironically, American efforts to stage-manage the conflict have directly led to Ukrainian innovations in drone technology that every Nato ally is going to have to learn to deal with PDQ, because the genie is out of the bottle, and very expensive weapons programmes are in danger of being superseded by kit you can buy in Wal Mart.

[jfman]

Although I naturally disagree I will say I admire your blind optimism.

At the start it was supposed to be American tech blowing away Ruskies for fun. Now it’s the plucky Ukrainians with their pea shooters ready to outwit a superpower with some NATO training from officers who have never seen combat without clear air superiority and hoping for F-16s due last winter.

I’d wager that American assistance - financial, intelligence or weapons would far outweigh what Zelensky can gather in his begging bowl from Baltic states happy to spill Ukrainian blood keeping the Russian border in the distance.

I’d not underestimate the American ability to put the genie back in the bottle either if other priorities took over like Israel or Taiwan.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

It is more likely that this war will now take significantly longer than it ought to,

Yes it will, and probably then some. Interesting to know how long “ought to” was projected to be, and what “significantly longer” is?

and it will end when Ukraine has done intolerable damage in the deep Russian rear - something they are getting very good at.

Will it? No problem then, it’s all in Ukraines hands then.

Russia should give it up as a bad job then, I’m sure they will.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Yes it will, and probably then some. Interesting to know how long “ought to” was projected to be, and what “significantly longer” is?

With the right equipment, Ukraine could have made significant advances into Russian held areas during 2023. They will get some of that equipment - F16s - later this year. Manoeuvre becomes more viable in 2025.

Will it? No problem then, it’s all in Ukraines hands then.

By no means. Ukraine still requires vast ammunition stocks in order to stabilise the front lines. The willingness of Western governments is crucial. If the logjam in the US congress has a silver lining, it is that Europe has begun to see the US as possibly unreliable. European efforts to speed up weapons manufacture and delivery is ramping up.

Russia should give it up as a bad job then, I’m sure they will.

Putin is all-in. He can’t give up now, and won’t. Others will force him, once the cost to them of supporting him manifestly outweighs the cost to them of opposing him. That’s how it has always worked in Russia.

[jfman]

This time next year, Rodney, we'll be millionaires!!!

Originally Posted by jfman

Although I naturally disagree I will say I admire your blind optimism.

At the start it was supposed to be American tech blowing away Ruskies for fun. Now it’s the plucky Ukrainians with their pea shooters ready to outwit a superpower with some NATO training from officers who have never seen combat without clear air superiority and hoping for F-16s due last winter.

I’d wager that American assistance - financial, intelligence or weapons would far outweigh what Zelensky can gather in his begging bowl from Baltic states happy to spill Ukrainian blood keeping the Russian border in the distance.

I’d not underestimate the American ability to put the genie back in the bottle either if other priorities took over like Israel or Taiwan.

At the start, America seemed willing to do exactly that. It was only when the plucky Ukrainians defeated the attempted invasion of the north and the Russian march on Kyiv that the escalation managers got nervous. The current White House wants Russia to fail to conquer Ukraine but it does not want Russia to suffer a crushing defeat. So even with the money Congress has just approved, there are limits on what Biden will do to support Ukraine.

As for assistance from outside the US; assistance from Europe is on a par with, and in some areas outstrips, US support. It isn’t just the Balts, and Macron really does seem to see this now as a chance for France to show its defence/industrial prowess and strategic leadership, rather than its subtle diplomatic skills. One of the reasons the escalation managers in Washington are not going to get what they want in the long run is that they have given Europe and Ukraine reasons not to rely on the US too heavily. The White House’s patently absurd objection to Ukraine bombing Russian oil infrastructure rings hollow because White House policies have undermined their influence over Ukraine to the extent that Ukraine doesn’t feel inclined to listen.

[jfman]

I'm at the front of the queue to argue that Europe needs political, economic and military independence from the US. I don't think arguing over a third of Ukraine populated by ethnic Russians is likely to be the line in the sand for it though. Easier to tell Zelensky to get his pen out, arm the expanded NATO front line and develop from there.

The bogging Putin down argument has lost value for the Americans there's no reason to believe it should have more value this side of the Atlantic.

Originally Posted by jfman

They’ll spend most of it, that’s American jobs after all. Whether it moves the dial on the front line is another question entirely. The odd terrorist attack does not a successful counteroffensive make.

Then we get all the excitement all over again in six months time, when the house can stall until the next President pulls the plug.

Strange - Russia bombing the ordure out of Ukrainian civilian targets passes without comment from you, but when Ukraine hits military targets or oil/weapon production sites within Russia, they’re "terrorists"?

You’re not even pretending not to be pro-Putin now, are you?

---------- Post added at 22:55 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

I'm at the front of the queue to argue that Europe needs political, economic and military independence from the US. I don't think arguing over a third of Ukraine populated by ethnic Russians is likely to be the line in the sand for it though. Easier to tell Zelensky to get his pen out, arm the expanded NATO front line and develop from there.

The bogging Putin down argument has lost value for the Americans there's no reason to believe it should have more value this side of the Atlantic.

You really are going full Pravda this evening - only 17% of Ukrainians are ethnically Russia, just over a sixth, not a third…

Overall, 77.8% of Ukraine’s population self-identified as ethnically Ukrainian and 17.3% as ethnically Russian

https://www.eurac.edu/en/blogs/mobil...-s-complicated

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Strange - Russia bombing the ordure out of Ukrainian civilian targets passes without comment from you, but when Ukraine hits military targets or oil/weapon production sites within Russia, they’re "terrorists"?

You’re not even pretending not to be pro-Putin now, are you?

No, I merely drew the distinction between co-ordinated military action with a clear goal (progressing through territory) and ad-hoc hits with limited/no strategic value.

Those are more akin to a terrorist action - Hamas on October 7th, Al Qaeda on September 11th, the IRA killing Albert Mountbatten. These have psychological effects however are of limited value in territorial terms.

Hamas have demonstrated more than ever that any ramshackle gang of limited resources could kill hundreds, if not thousands. Nobody believes they'll overthrow the Israeli (or any other) state.

---------- Post added at 22:59 ---------- Previous post was at 22:57 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

You really are going full Pravda this evening - only 17% of Ukrainians are ethnically Russia, just over a sixth, not a third…

https://www.eurac.edu/en/blogs/mobil...-s-complicated

I didn't say a third of Ukrainian people were ethnic Russians. Would love to know where the 17% live and what rights the Zelensky regime has stripped from them.

Given the accusation of being "pro-Putin" I feel I need to address this by stating I believe global security is better served by Ukraine ceding territories to Russia disputed since the not-implemented Minsk 2. I also think this was achievable in 2022 without the loss of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian conscripts. I also think without American backing that risks World War 3 this is the absolute limit of Ukrainian 'success'.

America's opportunity to go all in has been and gone. All we have now is more dead Ukanians for ever decreasing "gains". I don't think anyone else benefits from Russia getting expertise in target practice, nor their officer class getting expertise in real warfare not the kind that NATO types get on laptops and in control rooms.