UK back in Recession

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't think if Labour had been re-elected we would be in a Greece style situation. That seems rather drastic and alarmist. No one has made a convincing argument that would have been the case. We're not part of the Euro and we have a considerably better debt-to-GDP ratio.

We don't know what would have happened if Labour had won, they didn't. The Conservatives won and the economy is now their responsibility.

True. Putting the mess right is their responsibility but they can't be blamed for its creation any more than the last lot can be excused. What's needed now is constructive consensus - not point scoring. This crisis is as serious as a major war and bringing down the govt. only to replace them with those who got us into this mess would, IMHO, spell very big trouble indeed. What we need from our politicians most of all now is leadership and putting their personal ambitions second to the national good.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't think if Labour had been re-elected we would be in a Greece style situation. That seems rather drastic and alarmist. No one has made a convincing argument that would have been the case. We're not part of the Euro and we have a considerably better debt-to-GDP ratio.

Not a Greece situation. Maybe a Spain or Italy one though with no sign of improvement in sight.

Originally Posted by Osem

True. Putting the mess right is their responsibility but they can't be blamed for its creation any more than the last lot can be excused. What's needed now is constructive consensus - not point scoring. This crisis is as serious as a major war and bringing down the govt. only to replace them with those who got us into this mess would, IMHO, spell very big trouble indeed.

Well the last lot can't be exclusively blamed for the mess either considering this was a recession that hit a lot of the developed world. The Conservatives were just as happy to blame them then as Labour are now. No one is going to buy calls for a truce on point scoring whilst proclaiming that the current government cannot be blamed and the last lot cannot be excused.

Labour were to blame for not taking steps to reduce the debt before the recession making the situation worse. The Conservatives are currently to blame for failing to deliver on their objectives to deliver growth back to the UK, they have been in power for two years now, how long can they keep blaming the previous government? That said the current government is dealing with a sluggish economy, the Euro-Zone crisis, and a country which has a large portion of it's economic output delivered by one of the sectors which was badly hit by the succession of crises that have occurred over the last few years. So it's perhaps understandable why we're having trouble.

However, I can't really buy the demands for people to understand the complexity of the job the current government has been given whilst continue to peddle the notion that the previous government were not also presented with a massive problem and no clear way to deal with it.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well the last lot can't be exclusively blamed for the mess either considering this was a recession that hit a lot of the developed world. The Conservatives were just as happy to blame them then as Labour are now. No one is going to buy calls for a truce on point scoring whilst proclaiming that the current government cannot be blamed and the last lot cannot be excused.

Labour were to blame for not taking steps to reduce the debt before the recession making the situation worse. The Conservatives are currently to blame for failing to deliver on their objectives to deliver growth back to the UK, they have been in power for two years now, how long can they keep blaming the previous government? However the current government is dealing with a sluggish economy, the Euro-Zone crisis, and a country which has a large portion of it's economic output delivered by one of the sectors which was badly hit by the succession of crises that have occurred over the last few years.

I can't really buy the demands for people to understand the complexity of the job the current government has been given whilst continue to peddle the notion that the previous government were not also presented with a massive problem and no clear way to deal with it.

The difference is that New Labour inherited a good economy and had 13 years with a huge majority to do whatever needed to be done. This lot have had 2 years in coaltion during a crisis to put it right. As for one lot blaming the last lot, I think you'll find Labour were blaming Thatcher and Major for one thing and another the entire time they were in government. It's clear to me who's more culpable and who's had the harder task in office.

That's not an argument for more of the same, by the way, just a fact that some people seem to have forgotten. As I've already said, we need our leaders to forget their petty rivalries and personal ambitions for now and get on with putting things right, not simply undermining those who're tasked with the unenviable job for purely political reasons.

If we're not careful I feel we're in real danger of our politicians and indeed the media, 'talking' us into a worse situation than we currently face.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Assuming that just because the current strategy is not producing masses of growth in an environment where the (western) world economy is bumping along the bottom, that there is somehow a magical plan B that puts the UK to rights is just wishful thinking IMO.

I think you've just summed up Balls' 'strategy' without realising it..

Watched Andrew Neil giving David Willetts a very hard time re the economy at lunchtime. Of course the obligatory Labour attendee happily joined in the attack until Neil turned on her and repeatedly exposed her total unwillingness/inability to explain what her party would do. I think that just about sums up the opposition's credibility when it comes to 'Plan B'. All I ever hear from them is their plans for spending the proceeds of a bankers tax - cash they seem to have 'spent' more than once...

[Nidge41]

Originally Posted by Damien

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-dip-recession

It's just come in, 0.2% contraction for the last quarter. The UK has re-entered recession.

It's been coming for the last 6 months.

George Osborne: "There will be no double dip recession in Britain" November 2011

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/286 ... in-Britain

Idiot.

[Hom3r]

Oh well it give companies an excuse to shead workers.

Originally Posted by Saaf_laandon_mo

I'm not too sure about HS2, for one I don't think the savings in time on rail journeys is that significant. I think we need more housing than a shaving of 10 mins on the journey from Euston to Birmingham.

Birmingham isn't the end in itself. The aim is to have the line go all the way to Manchester and then up to Scotland. Over those distances it makes lots of sense and could take a lot of pressure off Heathrow by lessening domestic demand. But none of that can happen if the first stretch between B'ham and London isn't built first.

I have no doubt that putting the two Eds in Downing Street right now would make things horribly, horribly worse.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Less worse than it would otherwise have been. See Greece.

Remember that the other lot were to make the same magnitude of cuts over the 5 year period, just the yearly profile was to be different. Whether that would have made any difference is really academic.

Wait a second, are you seriously equating the UK, public sector debt around the 60% mark pre-crisis along with all the rest of the economic differences with Greece whose PSND was nearly 100% higher?

You've been swallowing the Conservative line that we'd be doomed and in the same position as Greece. Austerity has been minimal in the UK, tax rises have formed the majority of the deficit reduction and even then the reduction is pretty modest. No-one denies the need for cuts, what the coalition have done is a complete disaster all around.

The only reason we have AAA is the Bank of England creating and spending £325 billion on government debt. The Tories and Lib Dems are basically lying when they claim the government's interest rates reflect confidence. The only reason our government's interest rates aren't as high as Spain's, which they should be given they have lower debt and run a lower deficit than us, is that the BoE can buy government debt and have been buying it by the billion.

---------- Post added at 18:57 ---------- Previous post was at 18:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Derek

Not a Greece situation. Maybe a Spain or Italy one though with no sign of improvement in sight.

Without the £325 billion of QE we would be in a Spain situation. Their economy is by many metrics healthier than ours.

---------- Post added at 19:04 ---------- Previous post was at 18:57 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Assuming that just because the current strategy is not producing masses of growth in an environment where the (western) world economy is bumping along the bottom, that there is somehow a magical plan B that puts the UK to rights is just wishful thinking IMO.

The government can either pay out on welfare or pay out employing people on infrastructure projects, such as housing, and enjoying the benefits of the infrastructure spend, in the case of housing it becoming cheaper and people having more money to spend in the shops and invest.

It's a balancing act, this government has shackled growth through tax rises and shackled it again through cutting investment.

---------- Post added at 19:05 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

I think you've just summed up Balls' 'strategy' without realising it..

Watched Andrew Neil giving David Willetts a very hard time re the economy at lunchtime. Of course the obligatory Labour attendee happily joined in the attack until Neil turned on her and repeatedly exposed her total unwillingness/inability to explain what her party would do. I think that just about sums up the opposition's credibility when it comes to 'Plan B'. All I ever hear from them is their plans for spending the proceeds of a bankers tax - cash they seem to have 'spent' more than once...

I entirely agree that Labour are abysmal, however what relevance does this have to how badly the coalition are handling the economy?

They're the ones in charge, what Labour would do isn't actually the issue as they won't be in power until 2015, and it seems extremely likely that they will be in power in 2015. That we have the worst opposition in memory doesn't excuse the government being completely crap.

---------- Post added at 19:06 ---------- Previous post was at 19:05 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

I have no doubt that putting the two Eds in Downing Street right now would make things horribly, horribly worse.

How?

No growth, no jobs, real incomes squeezed, taxes increased, I don't see a hell of a lot of room for things to be further degraded.

---------- Post added at 19:11 ---------- Previous post was at 19:06 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

It was their hallmark: Re-anouncing expenditure. But I have yet to hear any properly costed alternative other than the mantra "Cutting too far, too fast". In these diet conscious days a "lite" policy.

Going by the constant adjustments to the expected deficit the current plan isn't sticking to costings either. It's already worse than the original Darling plan which Osborne and co so derided.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

I entirely agree that Labour are abysmal, however what relevance does this have to how badly the coalition are handling the economy?

They're the ones in charge, what Labour would do isn't actually the issue as they won't be in power until 2015, and it seems extremely likely that they will be in power in 2015. That we have the worst opposition in memory doesn't excuse the government being completely crap.

It doesn't and wasn't intended to. It was a reminder to the increasing number of people out there who seem to have very conveniently forgotten how utterly inept they were in either causing or presiding over the problems we now face. It was a reminder that Bliar and his cronies had 13 years to screw things up and that, given what's happened in the Eurozone since, expecting this govt. to have reversed all of that is entirely unrealistic. Make no mistake, I certainly don't think the current bunch have all the answers or haven't made mistakes, but I'd rather have them in power right now than Miliband's marauders who seem to have little idea what to do except rubbish their opposition.

For me this isn't about party politics. As I've already stated, I feel the situation we're in is so serious that we need the best brains and politicians of all parties to put their destructive rivalries aside and work together to sort this mess out. I still think the coalition has a chance of doing that but what's for sure is that the other realistic option of seeing Labour back in power would be a calamity.

Come 2015 I won't be blindly voting for Conservative, Lib Dem or anyone else - I never have done and never will. I'll be voting according to who I feel has the best chance of stopping us plunging over the precipice, if we haven't done so already. I'll be doing that even if it boils down to choosing the lesser of two evils, which it probably will sadly.

---------- Post added at 20:19 ---------- Previous post was at 20:07 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Which shows that the Darling plan was really a load of dingo's kidney's anyway.

Yes, and I guarantee he'd have missed his targets by even more than the Con-Dems have missed theirs.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Osem

Yes, and I guarantee he'd have missed his targets by even more than the Con-Dems have missed theirs.

That's a brave guarantee to make given the growth envisaged by it was based around quite different considerations.

---------- Post added at 21:16 ---------- Previous post was at 21:15 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Which shows that the Darling plan was really a load of dingo's kidney's anyway.

We'll never know, will we?

---------- Post added at 21:17 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Come 2015 I won't be blindly voting for Conservative, Lib Dem or anyone else - I never have done and never will. I'll be voting according to who I feel has the best chance of stopping us plunging over the precipice, if we haven't done so already. I'll be doing that even if it boils down to choosing the lesser of two evils, which it probably will sadly.

What precipice? Things aren't nearly as critical as the Conservatives would have us believe, and their austerity measures aren't close to enough to save us from them if things are as bad as they try and convince us.

Originally Posted by Osem

It doesn't and wasn't intended to. It was a reminder to the increasing number of people out there who seem to have very conveniently forgotten how utterly inept they were in either causing or presiding over the problems we now face. It was a reminder that Bliar and his cronies had 13 years to screw things up and that, given what's happened in the Eurozone since, expecting this govt. to have reversed all of that is entirely unrealistic. Make no mistake, I certainly don't think the current bunch have all the answers or haven't made mistakes, but I'd rather have them in power right now than Miliband's marauders who seem to have little idea what to do except rubbish their opposition.

But this is it. There is a acknowledgement of the circumstances that make it difficult for the current government to turn around the economy but the last government seem not to have that same luxury. Labour had a global recession to deal with just as the Conservatives have the lingering after-effects and the Euro crisis to deal with.

I don't think Governments can easily turn around an economy. It's a supertanker that they are trying to turn around by throwing rocks at it. They are at the mercy of events just as anyone else.

Yes, and I guarantee he'd have missed his targets by even more than the Con-Dems have missed theirs.

Wasn't Darling's plan similar to the US plan? Because their economy is turning around, albeit slowly.

[Cobbydaler]

Is it just me, or is -0.2% (that's -2/1000) not something to get too depressed about?

Why this obsession with endless growth?

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

That's a brave guarantee to make given the growth envisaged by it was based around quite different considerations.

---------- Post added at 21:16 ---------- Previous post was at 21:15 ----------



We'll never know, will we?

---------- Post added at 21:17 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ----------



What precipice? Things aren't nearly as critical as the Conservatives would have us believe, and their austerity measures aren't close to enough to save us from them if things are as bad as they try and convince us.

Brave it may be but I'd stand by it and neither of us are ever going to find out so we'll have to agree to disagree eh.

The precipice I'm referring to is the Eurozone not the UK right now. Our position is far from good but thankfully not as dire as some other countries and that may be as much due to luck as judgement. I don't think the recent growth figures justify the rhetoric that's being bandied about but I do think that, in combination with what's going on elsewhere in Europe (which we cannot separate ourselves from), we're on the edge of a financial abyss. Time will tell and I hope I'm wrong.

---------- Post added at 22:30 ---------- Previous post was at 22:24 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

But this is it. There is a acknowledgement of the circumstances that make it difficult for the current government to turn around the economy but the last government seem not to have that same luxury. Labour had a global recession to deal with just as the Conservatives have the lingering after-effects and the Euro crisis to deal with.

I don't think Governments can easily turn around an economy. It's a supertanker that they are trying to turn around by throwing rocks at it. They are at the mercy of events just as anyone else.


Wasn't Darling's plan similar to the US plan? Because their economy is turning around, albeit slowly.

Labour's profligacy, waste, ineptitude and gross regulatory failures exposed the UK to an extent which needn't have been the case. They gambled that borrowing and spending as if there was no tomorrow would keep them in power wich is all they were interested in. Sadly for us it did and thereby made our economy even more susceptible to the other, world, events you refer to.

The US is far from out of the woods in spite of the billions Obama's thrown at it.