Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

[Ignitionnet]

Going by the negotiations this week this isn't going well at all.

The EU want cash, the UK want to pay as little as legally possible knowing that future obligations after exit probably aren't legally enforceable as the treaties in question would be extinguished upon exit.

The UK doesn't want to pay a penny for anything after exit date, including programmes we've committed to fund while in the EU such as research, 3rd country development, etc. There is probably no legal means for the EU to compel payment.

The UK seems to fundamentally misunderstand the Single Market. Somewhat bizarre given two Conservative politicians, Thatcher and Lord Cockfield, are architects of it.

The UK, having accepted sequential talks, now wants future relationship and current settlement talks simultaneously.

The EU will not move from the negotiating platform it set down earlier. Perhaps more to the point it cannot without approval from the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.

I doubt we'll crash out early, we'll likely drag it all out for as long as possible to give business more time to prepare, but as of right now the differences seem intractable and it's incredibly unlikely that the UK will have any transition or exit deal in place, we will move to WTO MFN status which carries many issues and challenges with regards to replicating many basic arrangements we have in place now, before even contemplating trade deals.

Hey ho.

---------- Post added at 15:45 ---------- Previous post was at 15:33 ----------

This may well be accurate.

For all the rhetoric it's the cold hard truth and the numbers don't lie. In case of a disorganised exit they hurt, we hurt more. I'm fairly sure a certain Mr Varoufakis wasn't held in especially high regard in places, and isn't in Greece which perhaps explains why he's always on tour.

That said I've not a clue where else things can go. Months ago Donald Tusk was quite open about it and they haven't budged since. We've 3 options by the looks:

1) Forget Brexit (politically unworkable).
2) Join EEA/EFTA (probably politically unworkable).
3) WTO MFN status, no exit agreement (economically horrendous).

Hope there's some secret sauce my Brexit watching has missed. Even at my most 'Brexity' I was very clear I wanted the UK in the EEA and EFTA and to that I still hold, but politics has changed and left boring centrist types like me behind.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

For all the rhetoric it's the cold hard truth and the numbers don't lie

Ah but there's the rub. For the die-hard Brexiteers, this isn't the truth and, yes, the numbers do lie.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Ah but there's the rub. For the die-hard Brexiteers, this isn't the truth and, yes, the numbers do lie.

well i'm glad you cleared that up

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Ah but there's the rub. For the die-hard Brexiteers, this isn't the truth and, yes, the numbers do lie.

People can believe what they want to but mathematics of this basic kind is pretty resilient to opinions.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

As an added kicker a bunch of those UK exports rely on producing finished goods from materials supplied via the EU.

A trade deficit or otherwise is a hugely over-simplistic assessment of the situation and is, quite simply, misleading. Something that does significant harm to our goods trading relationship with the European Union will have a considerable effect on domestic consumption.

As the terms of negotiations and the current points stand there is no way an agreement is possible.

The big reaasons for this are May's entirely unnecessary speech at the Tory Party conference drawing up a bunch of red lines to appease the UKIPpers and entirely robbing her of flexibility and how the EU negotiates: a slow, consensus based process.

The Conservative actions at and around their conference were a massive mistake.

To be honest, if the plan is to crash out with no deal, blame the EU and try and win an election on the bulldog spirit of resisting those who wanted to pick on the UK what's going on fits that pattern almost perfectly. I'm going to go with incompetence and someone eating a law book to provide legal basis for why the UK shouldn't pay any obligations agreed during EU membership after it.

This is not legally unsound. There is simply no body that can force the UK to pay the commitments it agreed as part of the EU once we've left and that's the point the UK have been making, the payment demands are not enforceable. It is, however, perhaps morally unsound and gives a moment of pause to any nation we're looking for a trade deal from. Why deal with a country that refuses to pay its commitments because there's no viable legal way of compelling them to do so? Requires a high level of supervision of such an agreement. Something that in the current bizarre context would be seen as a violation of sovereignty, having a 3rd party group that can tell us what to do.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

People can believe what they want to but mathematics of this basic kind is pretty resilient to opinions.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

As an added kicker a bunch of those UK exports rely on producing finished goods from materials supplied via the EU.

A trade deficit or otherwise is a hugely over-simplistic assessment of the situation and is, quite simply, misleading. Something that does significant harm to our goods trading relationship with the European Union will have a considerable effect on domestic consumption.

As the terms of negotiations and the current points stand there is no way an agreement is possible.

The big reaasons for this are May's entirely unnecessary speech at the Tory Party conference drawing up a bunch of red lines to appease the UKIPpers and entirely robbing her of flexibility and how the EU negotiates: a slow, consensus based process.

The Conservative actions at and around their conference were a massive mistake.

To be honest, if the plan is to crash out with no deal, blame the EU and try and win an election on the bulldog spirit of resisting those who wanted to pick on the UK what's going on fits that pattern almost perfectly. I'm going to go with incompetence and someone eating a law book to provide legal basis for why the UK shouldn't pay any obligations agreed during EU membership after it.

This is not legally unsound. There is simply no body that can force the UK to pay the commitments it agreed as part of the EU once we've left and that's the point the UK have been making, the payment demands are not enforceable. It is, however, perhaps morally unsound and gives a moment of pause to any nation we're looking for a trade deal from. Why deal with a country that refuses to pay its commitments because there's no viable legal way of compelling them to do so? Requires a high level of supervision of such an agreement. Something that in the current bizarre context would be seen as a violation of sovereignty, having a 3rd party group that can tell us what to do.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

People can believe what they want to but mathematics of this basic kind is pretty resilient to opinions.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

As an added kicker a bunch of those UK exports rely on producing finished goods from materials supplied via the EU.

A trade deficit or otherwise is a hugely over-simplistic assessment of the situation and is, quite simply, misleading. Something that does significant harm to our goods trading relationship with the European Union will have a considerable effect on domestic consumption.

As the terms of negotiations and the current points stand there is no way an agreement is possible.

The big reaasons for this are May's entirely unnecessary speech at the Tory Party conference drawing up a bunch of red lines to appease the UKIPpers and entirely robbing her of flexibility and how the EU negotiates: a slow, consensus based process.

The Conservative actions at and around their conference were a massive mistake.

To be honest, if the plan is to crash out with no deal, blame the EU and try and win an election on the bulldog spirit of resisting those who wanted to pick on the UK what's going on fits that pattern almost perfectly. I'm going to go with incompetence and someone eating a law book to provide legal basis for why the UK shouldn't pay any obligations agreed during EU membership after it.

This is not legally unsound. There is simply no body that can force the UK to pay the commitments it agreed as part of the EU once we've left and that's the point the UK have been making, the payment demands are not enforceable. It is, however, perhaps morally unsound and gives a moment of pause to any nation we're looking for a trade deal from. Why deal with a country that refuses to pay its commitments because there's no viable legal way of compelling them to do so? Requires a high level of supervision of such an agreement. Something that in the current bizarre context would be seen as a violation of sovereignty, having a 3rd party group that can tell us what to do.

Your excellent assessment assume one thing and that is that the Leavers will act honourably.

The attitude of the more hardcore Leavers is that the EU is a corrupt, evil and undemocratic institution and as much, does not merit an honourable deal. If the UK does attempt to renege on its debts, it does have history

Perfidious Albion

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

People can believe what they want to but mathematics of this basic kind is pretty resilient to opinions.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

As an added kicker a bunch of those UK exports rely on producing finished goods from materials supplied via the EU.

A trade deficit or otherwise is a hugely over-simplistic assessment of the situation and is, quite simply, misleading. Something that does significant harm to our goods trading relationship with the European Union will have a considerable effect on domestic consumption.

As the terms of negotiations and the current points stand there is no way an agreement is possible.

The big reaasons for this are May's entirely unnecessary speech at the Tory Party conference drawing up a bunch of red lines to appease the UKIPpers and entirely robbing her of flexibility and how the EU negotiates: a slow, consensus based process.

The Conservative actions at and around their conference were a massive mistake.

To be honest, if the plan is to crash out with no deal, blame the EU and try and win an election on the bulldog spirit of resisting those who wanted to pick on the UK what's going on fits that pattern almost perfectly. I'm going to go with incompetence and someone eating a law book to provide legal basis for why the UK shouldn't pay any obligations agreed during EU membership after it.

This is not legally unsound. There is simply no body that can force the UK to pay the commitments it agreed as part of the EU once we've left and that's the point the UK have been making, the payment demands are not enforceable. It is, however, perhaps morally unsound and gives a moment of pause to any nation we're looking for a trade deal from. Why deal with a country that refuses to pay its commitments because there's no viable legal way of compelling them to do so? Requires a high level of supervision of such an agreement. Something that in the current bizarre context would be seen as a violation of sovereignty, having a 3rd party group that can tell us what to do.

great post

---------- Post added at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:50 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

Your excellent assessment assume one thing and that is that the Leavers will act honourably.

The attitude of the more hardcore Leavers is that the EU is a corrupt, evil and undemocratic institution and as much, does not merit an honourable deal. If the UK does attempt to renege on its debts, it does have history

Perfidious Albion

Sounds familiar in these parts

[Osem]

The UK will honour its commitments but the EU must first quantify them and then come to an arrangement with the UK. This is uncharted territory and the EU cannot expect the UK to just accept the first number they come up with and more than they'd accept ours without question.

I'd wager the UK has a better record of observing EU rules and fulfilling its obligations than many a member of the club.

[heero_yuy]

Perhaps we should ask for the last twenty years worth of audited accounts. Oh wait a minute....

[papa smurf]

Why do so many Remainers want Britain to fail? asks TIM NEWARK

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/exp...ail-Tim-Newark

The real problem is that too much negative reporting on our negotiating position from the liberal media could have a detrimental influence on business confidence by exacerbating fears about our ability to strike a free trade deal.

Make no mistake, this is not some abstract issue of interest only to economists, it would mean real people choosing to invest less money in our economy.

"If investment falters, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has proved already that he is only too keen to keep interest rates at a historic low.

But as well as encouraging spending this in turn keeps sterling down and leads to higher inflation.

Such are the dangers that could undermine a successful Brexit.

The enemy is not Michel Barnier – who is doing exactly the job required of him – but the Remoaners in our country seeking to undermine the democratic will of the nation to satisfy their own elitist beliefs."

[Osem]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Why do so many Remainers want Britain to fail? asks TIM NEWARK

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/exp...ail-Tim-Newark

The real problem is that too much negative reporting on our negotiating position from the liberal media could have a detrimental influence on business confidence by exacerbating fears about our ability to strike a free trade deal.

Make no mistake, this is not some abstract issue of interest only to economists, it would mean real people choosing to invest less money in our economy.

"If investment falters, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has proved already that he is only too keen to keep interest rates at a historic low.

But as well as encouraging spending this in turn keeps sterling down and leads to higher inflation.

Such are the dangers that could undermine a successful Brexit.

The enemy is not Michel Barnier – who is doing exactly the job required of him – but the Remoaners in our country seeking to undermine the democratic will of the nation to satisfy their own elitist beliefs."

This is very true. It's about time certain large sections of the media stopped undermining our own case, accepted the result of the referendum and spent more of their time helping to secure a mutually agreeable outcome instead of trying to derail the entire process. Dream on though if anyone thinks that's going to happen any time soon. Blair and many others like him are busily doing what they can to ensure the UK remains tied to the EU and if they get their way there'll never be another opportunity to leave you can be sure. New treaties and rules will follow by hook or by crook and the UK will find itself trapped. The EU has made it clear it wants to make the UK pay handsomely for having the temerity to leave and if we don't do it now it'll never happen and those who pay lip service to democracy will have been richly rewarded. Just look at Labour's stance on the EU now in comparison to what they went into the general election promising. It's not just Labour either, there are people in all parties who will do what they can to overturn the referendum result. Make no mistake, if we do not get out of this flawed club we're soon going to discover all the skeletons in the EU closet (which the likes of the BBC do their best to ignore or understate) to our permanent cost and we'll be able to do precious little about it.

Originally Posted by Osem

This is very true. It's about time certain large sections of the media stopped undermining our own case, accepted the result of the referendum and spent more of their time helping to secure a mutually agreeable outcome instead of trying to derail the entire process. Dream on though if anyone thinks that's going to happen any time soon. Blair and many others like him are busily doing what they can to ensure the UK remains tied to the EU and if they get their way there'll never be another opportunity to leave you can be sure. New treaties and rules will follow by hook or by crook and the UK will find itself trapped. The EU has made it clear it wants to make the UK pay handsomely for having the temerity to leave and if we don't do it now it'll never happen and those who pay lip service to democracy will have been richly rewarded. Just look at Labour's stance on the EU now in comparison to what they went into the general election promising. It's not just Labour either, there are people in all parties who will do what they can to overturn the referendum result. Make no mistake, if we do not get out of this flawed club we're soon going to discover all the skeletons in the EU closet (which the likes of the BBC do their best to ignore or understate) to our permanent cost and we'll be able to do precious little about it.

The media and public are generally inclined to be critical of the government, that isn't going to change with Brexit.

The referendum was close and the country is divided on the topic. As soon as it was clear the result was going to be close either way it was also clear that either result would lead to such division afterwards.

Also there has been little of sign of a mutually agreeable outcome. As soon as May came into No 10 it was going to be a Brexit for the 52% from the talk of citizens of nowhere to the fact we're pulling out of even agreements no-one objected to, such as nuclear cooperation, if they have even a hint of European involvement. The 52% won so that's their right but they can't really demand everyone shuts up about it. Even some Brexit supporters have expressed their unhappiness at this regressive approach and accused May of taking a Remainers idea of what Leavers wanted as a basis for Brexit rather than what they actually wanted.

You've got a contentious issue that was decided by a close vote and one that will dramatically change this country. What happens next was always going to be up for debate.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

The media and public are generally inclined to be critical of the government, that isn't going to change with Brexit.

The referendum was close and the country is divided on the topic. As soon as it was clear the result was going to be close either way it was also clear that either result would lead to such division afterwards.

Also there has been little of sign of a mutually agreeable outcome. As soon as May came into No 10 it was going to be a Brexit for the 52% from the talk of citizens of nowhere to the fact we're pulling out of even agreements no-one objected to, such as nuclear cooperation, if they have even a hint of European involvement. The 52% won so that's their right but they can't really demand everyone shuts up about it. Even some Brexit supporters have expressed their unhappiness at this regressive approach and accused May of taking a Remainers idea of what Leavers wanted as a basis for Brexit rather than what they actually wanted.

You've got a contentious issue that was decided by a close vote and one that will dramatically change this country. What happens next was always going to be up for debate.

Of course there's been little sign so far - the stakes are high, this is uncharted territory and neither side wants to be put at a disadvantage. This is to be expected, it's not a cheap game of poker and no matter what the media clamour is, it will take time to come to an agreement. One thing we do know is, however, that the EU is trying to lay down all the rules and has consistently refused to compromise. There's only so long people can go on blaming the UK entirely for the situation. It's the EU, by its own admission, which is trying to make a political point to other member states not the UK. It'd be nice to see that fact acknowledged by the likes of the BBC just occasionally because that in large part is what is slowing the process down.

[Mr K]

Maybe the media should just report the news whether it's good or bad for the Country or Government. To do anything else, wouldn't be doing their job.

So far, we seem to have got nothing out of the EU, and the negotiations are less than cordial. What a surprise ! They are united and we are divided. If anybody thinks we'll end end better off at the end of all this, they are kidding themselves. It's the biggest amount of self-harm a country has ever done itself.

[papa smurf]

The enemy is not Michel Barnier – who is doing exactly the job required of him – but the Remoaners in our country seeking to undermine the democratic will of the nation to satisfy their own elitist beliefs."