Post-Brexit Thread

[Ignitionnet]

Here're the NIESR's thoughts.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-p...ent-2017-12588

Basically something of a downturn, that will be mitigated heavily by interest rate cuts and QE.

Increased government borrowing to mitigate slower growth / possible recession.

Quite heavy risks on the downside.

TL;DR everything is not awesome, but neither is it apocalyptic.

Apologies for mentioning the views of experts. Please return to judging everything based on what a bloke down the pub says, and ensure that if it's negative it's nothing to do with Brexit.

---------- Post added at 12:01 ---------- Previous post was at 11:41 ----------

Heh. I just had a look at the Express's IQ-sapping propaganda and found their story on the NIESR report.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/696...EU-Theresa-May

BREXIT BOOST: Britain WILL NOT fall into recession after ditching EU, think tank reveals

They couldn't even report the executive summary properly, let alone the report itself.

Here're the bullet points and first paragraph from the executive summary.

GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016, slowing to just 1 per cent in 2017. GDP is likely to decline by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and there is a risk of a further deterioration.

Inflation is forecast to increase significantly, peaking at just over 3 per cent at the end of 2017. The MPC is expected to ‘look through’ this temporary rise and ease monetary policy substantially in the coming months.

Government announcements have effectively ‘over-ridden’ the Fiscal Charter and borrowing is expected to increase by an additional £47 billion over the period 2016–17 to 2020–21.

Simon Kirby, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR, said “We expect the UK to experience a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017. There is an evens chance of a ‘technical’ recession in the next 18 months, while there is an elevated risk of further deterioration in the near term. In light of the downturn underway and the downside risks to the outlook, a decision by the MPC to provide monetary stimulus would be welcome and we look forward to assessing the new Chancellor’s plans at the Autumn Statement.”

Wonder if they'll manage to correct this one or if, like an earlier story, it'll end up being shown to be so full of bovine excreta they simply take it down?

Following the vote to leave the EU, we have seen heightened uncertainty and a depreciation of sterling. In the near term, we also expect a tightening of financial conditions and a spike in inflation. These factors will slow GDP growth from 1.7 per cent in 2016 to just 1 per cent in 2017. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.8 per cent in the second quarter of this year to a peak of around 5¾ per cent in the middle of 2017.

They call this a 'Brexit boost'? It's not end of times, we've had far worse and the economy will recover as it recalibrates, but it's hardly a bloody 'boost'. The Express seems to have gotten even more blatant about confirmation bias and, if anything, I'm getting the strong impression from their increasing desperation that they know they're in for a backlash. When you feed people the endless stream of propaganda they did anything that doesn't fit that narrative will upset people, even if it was entirely predictable.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Don't try and tell me my job, it's been awful since Christmas and the projects that were postponed for the vote are now being shelved all together, I hear that everyday from clients.

And more proof if it was needed that other big sectors are contracting at its fastest rate since the financial crisis.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36962059

[Ignitionnet]

As I understand it from this very thread the PMIs are worthless now. Markit are rigging them apparently to get the answers they want.

What this is showing is how dynamic the forecasts are, and how much think tanks are covering their backsides as we are in the unknown in a big way.

Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist, said the service sector data taken together with the construction and manufacturing data pointed to the UK economy shrinking by 0.4% in three months to September, a fall not seen since early 2009, when the Bank last cut interest rates.

While the NIESR predicted:

GDP is likely to decline by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and there is a risk of a further deterioration.

Hopefully the PMIs pick up for the rest of the quarter. For all the nonsense being peddled that drop will cause an increase in unemployment and will affect real people.

EDIT: I remember the forecast drop being 0.1% for 4 quarters than growth. All 0.4% in one quarter will hurt quite a bit more

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Here're the NIESR's thoughts.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-p...ent-2017-12588

Basically something of a downturn, that will be mitigated heavily by interest rate cuts and QE.

Increased government borrowing to mitigate slower growth / possible recession.

Quite heavy risks on the downside.

TL;DR everything is not awesome, but neither is it apocalyptic.

Apologies for mentioning the views of experts. Please return to judging everything based on what a bloke down the pub says, and ensure that if it's negative it's nothing to do with Brexit.

---------- Post added at 12:01 ---------- Previous post was at 11:41 ----------

Heh. I just had a look at the Express's IQ-sapping propaganda and found their story on the NIESR report.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/696...EU-Theresa-May



They couldn't even report the executive summary properly, let alone the report itself.

Here're the bullet points and first paragraph from the executive summary.



Wonder if they'll manage to correct this one or if, like an earlier story, it'll end up being shown to be so full of bovine excreta they simply take it down?



They call this a 'Brexit boost'? It's not end of times, we've had far worse and the economy will recover as it recalibrates, but it's hardly a bloody 'boost'. The Express seems to have gotten even more blatant about confirmation bias and, if anything, I'm getting the strong impression from their increasing desperation that they know they're in for a backlash. When you feed people the endless stream of propaganda they did anything that doesn't fit that narrative will upset people, even if it was entirely predictable.

Along the lines of the Express's 'interpretation' of things, there was an amusing article on Newsthump (an Internet satire/humour site) along those lines (I won't link to it, as it's NSFW), but I am sure CF'ers could find it with little effort...

People who blamed everything on EU before referendum now angry if anything blamed on Brexit

People who hold the EU responsible for everything that’s gone wrong in their lives have voiced their anger at the merest suggestion that the vote for Brexit is having a negative effect on the UK.

With Theresa May adamant that Brexit means Brexit and Boris Johnson insisting that erse means elbow, Leave supporters have been quick to pour scorn on anyone expressing concerns about what the future holds.

“Bremaniac traitor **** should stop talking our country down,” said committed patriot Simon Williams.

“We should hang them all from lampposts and feed their internal organs to the pigeons.”

For the avoidance of any confusion, this is from a humour site, not a news site....

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

More "in" campaign lies uncovered:

link

Just shows the lengths they went to in order to keep us in the rich club. I knew the £350m wasn't nonsense but considering we get some back in grants, our own money by the way, they were demanding more and more money from us to the point it would cost us £350 mil. per week. You can bet any money we owe the EU, and it's a pretty sum, will be demanded not long after the 2 years or when we finally leave that den of vipers.

---------- Post added at 14:15 ---------- Previous post was at 14:14 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

I wonder what sweeteners Cameron had promised these companies in return for their support of project fear? Plenty more to be revealed methinks.

Just wait till we see the Honours List. Wonder how many Chiefs are given a gong.

---------- Post added at 14:18 ---------- Previous post was at 14:15 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Uk building sector has shrunk to lowest level since 2009, another victory...

That will pick up again once we start building houses again. This uncertainty will subside and then maybe we can make Britain Great again!

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Just wait till we see the Honours List. Wonder how many Chiefs are given a gong.

The leaked list shows all the major brown nosed stayers picking up gongs, knighthoods, companions of Honour, etc.

I find it amazing that so much is being attributed to Brexit .For the record we have not even begun the leaving process yet so we have not 'ditched the EU' and neither are are all the warnings about Brexit being proven groundless ,they may be proven groundless in the future or they may be proven correct we simply do not know yet .

---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:06 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Don't try and tell me my job, it's been awful since Christmas and the projects that were postponed for the vote are now being shelved all together, I hear that everyday from clients.

I think a lot depends on location and type of construction .For instance up here small scale house building has gone beserk but i do see signs that large scale house building has slowed as has local authority projects.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by martyh

I find it amazing that so much is being attributed to Brexit .For the record we have not even begun the leaving process yet so we have not 'ditched the EU' and neither are are all the warnings about Brexit being proven groundless ,they may be proven groundless in the future or they may be proven correct we simply do not know yet .

Well the media needs stuff to report. So in Brexit they have the story which keeps on giving. Every time there's a problem it's down to Brexit, then every time there's some good news it's in spite of Brexit.

What I notice more is the relative absence, in the places I frequent, of stuff about what's going on in the EU, migration, banking problems etc.

There was some more bad news about the Italian banks the other day but I didn't see it reported widely.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e67c83c4-5...#axzz4GI3boQrP

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708357

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...millions-euros

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...e-to-its-core/

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/cit...k-crisis-grows

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708357

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...millions-euros

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...e-to-its-core/

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/cit...k-crisis-grows

I was referring to something just a couple of days ago, as covered in the FT link. I have previously mentioned the ongoing problem with the Italian banks in the Eurozone thread. The same link as yours:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35...-post1852.html

I don't include the Express in my reading so can't comment on its output.

There's loads of bad stuff going on it Europe yet we really don't hear much about it given how serious it is. Even the migrant death toll seems to have been forgotten after all the blanket coverage and emotion it was the subject of for so long.

Unfortunately, your link was behind a paywall, so I couldn't see the date.

The only FT article I could see was this on the 27th

https://next.ft.com/content/b5a0579a...6-a4a71e8140b0

which was about the same date as the Guardian article.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Unfortunately, your link was behind a paywall, so I couldn't see the date.

The only FT article I could see was this on the 27th

https://next.ft.com/content/b5a0579a...6-a4a71e8140b0

which was about the same date as the Guardian article.

Yes it's odd that because it was the only serious link I could find and I was expecting a paywall but was able to see the entire article with no problems at all which is why I posted it. I'd given up looking at the FT since they adopted the paywall approach and wondered if they'd dropped it. Evidently not.

The article I read was dated 2nd August IIRC but I can't see it either now. Weird eh?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by martyh

I find it amazing that so much is being attributed to Brexit .For the record we have not even begun the leaving process yet so we have not 'ditched the EU' and neither are are all the warnings about Brexit being proven groundless ,they may be proven groundless in the future or they may be proven correct we simply do not know yet .

---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:06 ----------



I think a lot depends on location and type of construction .For instance up here small scale house building has gone beserk but i do see signs that large scale house building has slowed as has local authority projects.

And it's that uncertainty that's causing all the problems. It's funny I said the same thing to a colleague around the exact time you posted that, there's a heap of small or single plot developments going on, sadly not much use to us though as we like the massive developments

Given that the remain campaign was painting pictures of Armageddon if we voted leave, a sudden chill immediately post-vote is pretty much inevitable. Campaigners from the PM and the chancellor downwards talked the economy down. Guess what, if the country's two most senior political leaders do that, it tends to become self-fulfilling.

We will just have to see how long things take to pick up once people realise the sky isn't actually falling.

[Ignitionnet]

Interest rates lowered to 0.25%, MPC forecasting rates to go to 'close to, but a little above, zero' by end of year.

£60 billion of new QE to buy government debt, £10 billion to purchase corporate bonds, up to £100 billion to support lending.

Seems the BoE are indeed somewhat 'chilled'.

EDIT: This is going to harm pensions and investments further as gilt yields have dropped considerably already.

EDIT 2: In better news while the BoE are 'chilled' they are not predicting recession, just slower growth, which is not as bad as it could have been.