Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[Osem]

If I was Scottish I'd be asking for a new First Minister as well.

Oh, don't worry, Fat Alec's career prospects will take a steep nosedive after 2014. A lot of people will wonder what the SNP is supposed to be for, with the separatist question decisively settled.

The SNP has a majority now, because even though Scotland couldn't bring itself to vote Labour in 2011, no matter how desperate things get, it's not going to vote Tory. By 2016 the Labour brand will be sufficiently detoxified, Salmond will have been in office for 9 years and the SNP will be looking irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Chris

Oh, don't worry, Fat Alec's career prospects will take a steep nosedive after 2014. A lot of people will wonder what the SNP is supposed to be for, with the separatist question decisively settled.

The SNP has a majority now, because even though Scotland couldn't bring itself to vote Labour in 2011, no matter how desperate things get, it's not going to vote Tory. By 2016 the Labour brand will be sufficiently detoxified, Salmond will have been in office for 9 years and the SNP will be looking irrelevant.

The SNP get voted in on issues other than Independence don't they? Otherwise this would be a closer referendum.

Alex Salmond must be up to something. I think they know this is a lost cause for now and are keeping their own brand away from being too closely associated with the campaign, instead using it to either help them in 2015, to get devo max, or to test the waters for a more concerted effort in a generations time.

Salmond is a gradualist. He has always hoped that the case for separation could be grown slowly, from the ground up, to the point where the case for a referendum was so compelling, one or more of the main parties at Holyrood would break ranks and support a referendum bill, or at least abstain. The last thing he wanted was an outright majority at Holyrood. It has left him with no reason not to hold a referendum right now. All he has been able to do is to take a wild shot at holding it when Scottish nationalist feeling is likely to be at its highest. The Commonwealth Games are in Glasgow next year and it is also the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, which to all intents and purposes is Scotland's Hastings (except Scotland won).

When you look at what the SNP is saying about how an independent Scotland will look, it is not actually that different to what "Devo Max" might look like, except with separate Scottish representation at various international bodies like the UN and EU. The strategy seems to be to try to win round the undecideds and some of the nos by convincing them they might as well agree to something that will hardly be different at all, except for the removal of "London" from the equation (which is as close as SNP ministers ever get to discussing their deep-seated hatred of the involvement of England in Scotland's affairs).

Of course, once Scotland became an independent country, any or all of the remaining ties to the Union could be ditched as a matter of party policy, without any further referendum.

Salmond's right-hand woman, Nicola Sturgeon, has been on the TV this week insisting, against the evidence of every single poll taken since the referendum was announced, and against the evidence of almost every poll ever conducted before that, that there is a "natural majority" in favour of separation. The SNP's line seems to be that we want independence, we just don't know it yet. Which is a bit odd, because we didn't want independence when all we had was the SNP telling us how great it would be, and now we have a well-organised campaign, for the first time ever, rebuffing SNP assertions about independence and challenging their ludicrous claims.

In the meantime, yes, the SNP gets elected as it is the only mainstream alternative to Labour in Holyrood. The Scottish electorate is every bit as sophisticated as that elsewhere in the UK and gives the SNP more votes for Holyrood than it does for Westminster. I haven't looked at the figures but I suspect the "natural" level of support for independence in Scotland lies with those who voted SNP in 2010 for Westminster, and will do so in 2015. That number is quite a lot lower than those who voted for the SNP for Holyrood in 2011.

Another SNP scheme backfires:

[img]Download Failed (1)[/img]

All the teens aged 14+ who were quizzed for this poll will be of voting age next September, thanks to Fat Alec's great wheeze about giving 16s and 17s the vote (because he thought they would all be so grateful they would do anything he told them).

Originally Posted by Chris

Another SNP scheme backfires:



All the teens aged 14+ who were quizzed for this poll will be of voting age next September, thanks to Fat Alec's great wheeze about giving 16s and 17s the vote (because he thought they would all be so grateful they would do anything he told them).

you mean those ungrateful young wippersnappers had the audacity to think for themselves ,outrageous

[Derek]

Looks like he will have to get Braveheart on repeat from now till polling day to get anywhere near a yes vote.

[Osem]

I heard Salmond's getting so desperate now he's going to demand the English have a vote.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Osem

I heard Salmond's getting so desperate now he's going to demand the English have a vote.

That might be because he knows the majority of English would support independence but of course we'll never be given a vote.

[Derek]

Another day, another kicking for SNP claims.

Scotland would find it more difficult to negotiate an "a-la-carte" membership of the European Union if it becomes independent, according to an SNP ally in Europe.

The Scottish Government wants Scotland to remain in the EU without adopting the euro currency or opening borders and with a cut-price contribution to the budget.

Flemish unionist MEP Jean-Luc Dehaene, a former prime minister of Belgium, said there is already opposition to the UK's budget rebate, and there is no opt-out of the euro or the Schengen free travel area for new EU members.

http://news.stv.tv/politics/229512-s...dent-scotland/

They really are getting desperate aren't they.

I've been having some fun lately arguing with the cybernats on the Herald website over the ridiculous stooshie they've been trying to whip up over last week's edition of Question Time. They actually seem to think that when the programme is recorded in Scotland, the only elected individuals on the panel should be elected to serve in Scotland, and if independence is likely to come up as a question, the panel should be constituted half and half unionists and separatists.

The Greens are particularly aggrieved because they have a Holyrood seat or two and Nigel Farage doesn't. The Lib Dems are also annoyed, because 'Gorgeous' George Galloway got the other seat on the panel and they didn't. Not that I've heard them moaning when they've been left out of a panel during a recording made in England, which does happen from time to time.

The SNP are whinging because that's all they can do, now each and every one of their arguments for separation has been debunked. Apparently they think that it would be good editorial policy for the BBC to stack a Question Time guest panel, for an edition to be broadcast to the entire UK, based on one political issue that will be decided within Scotland, rather than acknowledging the programme is made for a UK audience and has to have a panel that reflects the broader views of society as a whole.

[colin25]

Yes, the SNP tends to forget they are elected to represent the whole country, not just the SNP.

Embarrassing at times

[TheDaddy]

Blimey you lot (Scots not subscribers to the thread) still here, hoped you'd have gone by now, no offence

[Derek]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Blimey you lot (Scots not subscribers to the thread) still here, hoped you'd have gone by now, no offence

Barring Mr Salmond suddenly finding a couple of million yes voters down the back of his sofa we aren't going anywhere.

[Cobbydaler]

If you take a closer look, Scottish National Party is an anagram of "Oh nasty tartan politics" and Alex Salmond is an anagram of "all mad, no sex"

Unattributed...