Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[Derek]

Looks like Emperor Salmonds plans have run into another small problem.

As well as there being no guarantees that Scotland would automatically get into the EU (A plus point IMO but thats another story) there is now no guarantees that Scotland could get to keep the pound.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...ency-ultimatum

Scotland may have to join euro or create new currency if first minister fails to accept Treasury's terms for joining sterling

Yeah I've not understood why they think they can keep the pound. A country can use whatever currency they wish, as far as I know, but the pound would still need to be controlled by the Bank of England and the UK Government wouldn't it?

They always were a lot of amateurs pushing a hare-brained scheme, but now it's coming to the vote and they're under scrutiny, it's amusing how quickly it's all falling around their ears.

Funnier still are the cybernats, still furiously commenting all over the Scotsman website and anywhere else a critical report is found. Some of them have gone into outright denial. Apparently the recent student referendum vote in Glasgow, and last week's opinion survey at Napier in Edinburgh (support for the union at 65% and 70% respectively, which by massive coincidence are in the same ball park as every national opinion poll of the last decade) are all down to foreigners who won't be here to vote in the real thing next year. And the worse the news gets, the louder they insist that it'll all still come good in 2014.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by Chris

And the worse the news gets, the louder they insist that it'll all still come good in 2014.

They still have time to arrange for round the clock screenings of Braveheart in the run up to it.

In the event of a no vote, do you think it needs to be overwhelming to avoid a referendum for a generation or will the SNP just start another one in 10 years time?

I think even they know this is a once-in-a-generation chance, especially with 16s and 17s getting to vote too.

All the indications are that it will be 'no' with between 60 and 70% of the vote, which is pretty overwhelming by any standard.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by Damien

In the event of a no vote, do you think it needs to be overwhelming to avoid a referendum for a generation or will the SNP just start another one in 10 years time?

A 5-10% majority no vote would probably give them enough wiggle room to demand another one in a few years but the way things are going the no vote will be a hell of a lot clearer than that.

Betting the countries future on oil revenues isn't a game I'm happy playing. Removing Trident would leave a huge black hole jobs wise and they seem hell bent on taking Scotland from one union with the rest of the UK and locking it into another one in the EU which baffles me.

For me the point here is if it is a no vote as seems to be the case will the snp call a scottish election given their main agenda is independence or do people think they will cling to power hoping to turn opinion around. For me the only thing more damaging to scotlands future then independence would be constant unease about whether they will enter an endless round of referendums till the snp get what they want. How many no's make an absolute is what i guess i am wondering.

They can't call a Scottish election no matter what happens. We have fixed term parliaments.

Also, it's not only a matter of how many people vote yes or no, the amount the opinion polls shift during the campaign will be relevant in the long term too.

They were insane to call a referendum with public support for separation so totally stuck at 30%, but the election results pretty much called the SNP's bluff. They got an outright majority at Holyrood under an electoral system that was supposed to prevent it and there was then nothing to stop them from legislating for a vote.

If a 2-year campaign fails to push support past the core vote, in 20 or 30 years time, if there is no evidence of general support for the idea of separation, it will be much harder for them to justify the cost and upheaval of another campaign aimed at convincing people that their settled view of Scotland's place in the UK is wrong.

Westminster governments have the power to call an election early isn't that something a scots government can do ?. Granted scottish politics is not something i am overly familiar with but the snp have always struck me as a bit loony fringe so expecting them to play by normal rules and common sense doesn't seem the likeliest outcome of all this.

Westminster governments no longer have that power. The House of Commons now has a fixed five-year term, excluding the possible consequences of a no confidence vote.

The Scottish Executive has never had the power to call an election early. The Parliament's term is fixed, just as your local councillor's term of office is fixed.

[Derek]

So after initially claiming legal advice said Scotland would remain part of the EU, being made to look stupid when it was revealed there was no legal advice and being forced to seek expert opinion the SNP are now refusing to reveal what the experts think.

The SNP government has received legal advice on an independent Scotland's membership of the EU, but it has refused to reveal what it says.

A cynic might suggest the experts don't agree with Emperor Salmond and his schemes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-22550425

This referendum campaign has been great so far. For years we've had to put up with Salmond and his Cybernats touring the news studios and trolling the Scotsman and anywhere else they find a blog, making assertions about how wonderful it will be in Dalriada. Now they're having their proclamations challenged every day of the week and they don't like it up 'em.

All the SNP Yes Scotland seems to exist for is to moan about "scaremongering".

[Osem]

Oh dear...

Salmond's always been better at the rhetoric than the delivery.

Yep. If I was Colin Weir I'd be asking for a refund.