Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Think how I felt, 100 miles to the East of the West German border, surrounded by over 400,000 members of the GSFG and assorted hardware*.....

*not including the Ostdeutsch Tank and Motorised Rifle Divisions, PVO Strany, and Sov and Ostdeutsch Air Forces.......

Well it would have been quick for you.

[Ignitionnet]

Interesting; the war games I'd seen were focused around the premise of a tactical nuclear war followed by potentially a strategic one after NATO forces were overrun by Warsaw Pact forces.

---------- Post added at 22:23 ---------- Previous post was at 22:22 ----------

Originally Posted by Sirius

Well it would have been quick for you.

Same kind of story for most of us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-minute_warning

In practice, the warning would have been more likely three minutes or less.

Brr.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Interesting; the war games I'd seen were focused around the premise of a tactical nuclear war followed by potentially a strategic one after NATO forces were overrun by Warsaw Pact forces

Brr.

It was a very interesting read, chillingly plausible to, iirc he did do a version in which Germany was totally destroyed by nuclear weapons. The novel aspect of the book left a bit to be desired but as a text book it was excellent, possibly due to the amount of experts that contributed to it, the dates were almost perfect, mid eighties and the soviets are on the verge of collapse economically so launch an invasion of western Europe, France joins in and it's all over in three weeks, might have been Minsk not Kiev that was destroyed to. We are so lucky gorbachev and not someone like Putin took over then.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Interesting; the war games I'd seen were focused around the premise of a tactical nuclear war followed by potentially a strategic one after NATO forces were overrun by Warsaw Pact forces.

---------- Post added at 22:23 ---------- Previous post was at 22:22 ----------



Same kind of story for most of us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-minute_warning



Brr.

I'd always imagined the US cavalry would ride in to save us...

---------- Post added at 08:20 ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 ----------

Russia has told the US that Western sanctions over the Crimea dispute are unacceptable, and has threatened "consequences".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued the warning in a telephone call to US Secretary of State John Kerry.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26641217

Last I heard they were 'laughing' at sanctions, now it seems they're worthy of 'retaliation'. I reckon a very dangerous bunch of lunatics are running the show in Russia and anything could happen.

US Air Cav, with A10 Warthogs and Apache helicopters with Hellfire missiles - they were specifically designed to mitigate* the overwhelming Soviet tank numbers.


*mitigate - 'blow the crap out of'.....

[Osem]

Yes the good ole 'tankbuster' I remember it well. All very well if the Yanks are inclined to a) get involved and b) stay involved. I expect their Nato obligations might be called into question if all hell broke loose in E. Europe. Let's hope their commitment isn't tested.

Putin's playing a very dangerous game of chess and you have to wonder if he'd back down in the event that his bluff was ever called or whether he'd see his destiny as the leader of some glorious Soviet anti-western crusade...

Anyway I reckon defence sector shares could well be on the rise shortly...

Putin isn't as secure as some think. Russia is connected to the global economy now and I doubt it's citizens would sit still if they saw it sliding back to the bad ol' days.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Putin isn't as secure as some think. Russia is connected to the global economy now and I doubt it's citizens would sit still if they saw it sliding back to the bad ol' days.

The Russian people are well used to government oppression and Russian governments are well used to dishing it out. I don't see Putin and his cronies being overthrown by a 'people's army'. Bring back Gorby!

[Tezcatlipoca]

"The Soviet Union? I thought you guys broke up?"

"That's what we wanted you to think!"

http://vimeo.com/87939821

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Hugh

US Air Cav, with A10 Warthogs and Apache helicopters with Hellfire missiles - they were specifically designed to mitigate* the overwhelming Soviet tank numbers.


*mitigate - 'blow the crap out of'.....

Makes any tanky on the enemy side have bowl movements

[Osem]

European Union leaders will arrive for their spring summit on Thursday facing a crisis that only recently they could scarcely have imagined.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26652399

What all the leaders know is that if they really want to turn the screw on the Kremlin they have to weaken the vulnerable Russian economy. That means trade and financial restrictions.

That is not going to happen - certainly at this summit. The Germans have made it clear that a move to economic sanctions would only follow "a massive destabilisation" of eastern Ukraine.

And therein lies the problem - the EU rarely agrees about anything of significance without thrashing it all out for years. Putin knows it and he's warning the West to keep off his turf.

[Osem]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Russia will face escalating EU sanctions if it does not take steps to ease the crisis over Crimea.

Mrs Merkel told German MPs that the current political situation also meant the G8 effectively no longer existed.

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels shortly to discuss their response to Russia's intervention in the peninsula.

Tensions remain high in Crimea after its leaders signed a deal with Moscow to split from Ukraine and join Russia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26659578

Meanwhile:

Crimean leaders signed a treaty with Moscow on Tuesday to absorb the peninsula - an autonomous republic in southern Ukraine - into Russia, following a referendum which the West and Kiev say was illegal.

The treaty has now been approved by Russia's lower house of parliament - the Duma - and is expected to be ratified by the upper house on Friday.

The treaty's almost done and dusted while the west is still deciding what to have for lunch during their various meetings...

[Kabaal]

Let's just say Russia decides to take all of the Ukraine by force. What are we in Europe or the US going to do about it? Anything involving the military has the possibility of escalating to a full on war with Russia and that's not a war that anyone will win. All sides would lose. It's all well and good going on about how ineffective this or that is but at the end of the day rolling over is the only sensible option, at least for now, IMO.

The Chinese government must be rubbing their hands right now. They've politically distanced themselves from Russia during all of this and worst case scenario they have the capability to mop up after the fact.

[Uncle Peter]

Originally Posted by Kabaal

Let's just say Russia decides to take all of the Ukraine by force. What are we in Europe or the US going to do about it? Anything involving the military has the possibility of escalating to a full on war with Russia and that's not a war that anyone will win. All sides would lose. It's all well and good going on about how ineffective this or that is but at the end of the day rolling over is the only sensible option, at least for now, IMO.

The Chinese government must be rubbing their hands right now. They've politically distanced themselves from Russia during all of this and worst case scenario they have the capability to mop up after the fact.

I don't think attempting to take the rest of Ukraine by military force is an option for Putin. The consequences at home and abroad are too high a price to pay. Poltical destabilisation will be his modus operandi, as it has been doing since the orange revolution.

What will be interesting is whether or not the Americans will cease to restrain the Saudis (via the CIA) from funding and cultivating Chechen separatists/terrorists.

[Osem]

@ Kabaal - Military action would of course be a last resort but until the west is seen to have a credible plan for a prompt and painful response to acts like this all the pontificating in the word adds up to so much hot air. Who do our leaders think they're kidding? We don't believe they have the stomach for meaningful economic sanctions and neither does Putin. Until that changes he can be pretty sure that another land grab will go equally unpunished. What better way to encourage him to try?