Brexit discussion

[Carth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Do you think that a decrease in the value of the Pound can lead to a rise in the cost of imported goods and services?

Do you think it hasn't happened before, and won't again?

[jonbxx]

Yes, the value of GBP has gone down in the past and will go up again. However, we live in a globalised world now. The level of self sufficiency of the UK is lower now than ever - we need to import goods just as much as other countries want to import what we make and use services we provide.

The effect of globalisation means that exchange rate fluctuations make a bigger difference than ever to the UK population and business. Sometimes it will work in your favour (my salary is in GBP and is set but underlying this, I am officially paid in USD so I am cheaper to employ) Sometime it doesn’t (my company sells to the UK in GBP but accounts in USD so the UK branch is making less money)

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Do you think that a decrease in the value of the Pound can lead to a rise in the cost of imported goods and services?

What it does is increase our ability to export our products.

As for imports from the EU, if they get to expensive, we will import from elsewhere.

So the problem is....

Sorry, you've got me there.

---------- Post added at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Takes a special kind of pig-headedness to be wrong 100% of the time and not be man enough admit it.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I assume that you are referring to the minority of the country who are trying to deny the will of the majority to get out of EU domination.

If so, I agree.

If not, we have a problem.

---------- Post added at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

Do you think it hasn't happened before, and won't again?

It's simply desperation, Carth, don't worry about it!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Do you think that a decrease in the value of the Pound can lead to a rise in the cost of imported goods and services?

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What it does is increase our ability to export our products.

As for imports from the EU, if they get to expensive, we will import from elsewhere.

So the problem is....

Sorry, you've got me there.

Indeed I have as I'm talking about a decrease in the value of the Pound which makes all imports more expensive.

---------- Post added at 23:16 ---------- Previous post was at 23:13 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

Japan knows it's playing on the slide, not the climbing frame. They're just trying to make sure their economy doesn't hit a brick wall by ensuring ours does

They've recently signed a free trade deal with the largest trading bloc in the World, so the country is pretty sorted out trade wise.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Indeed I have as I'm talking about a decrease in the value of the Pound which makes all imports more expensive.

Whereas our exports are cheaper, making it good for British businesses. And our ability to trade with other parts of the globe reduce or eliminate the downsides of EU detriments.

Trust you to paint the negatives at the exclusion of the positives, Andrew! Please let's have some honesty in this debate.

Are you dependent on the EU for your pension, by any chance?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Whereas our exports are cheaper, making it good for British businesses. And our ability to trade with other parts of the globe reduce or eliminate the downsides of EU detriments.

Trust you to paint the negatives at the exclusion of the positives, Andrew! Please let's have some honesty in this debate.

Are you dependent on the EU for your pension, by any chance?

I just asked a reasonable binary question which people seem to avoid answering "Do you think that a decrease in the value of the Pound can lead to a rise in the cost of imported goods and services?"

That's not negative or positive.

Honesty is not pretending you can have your cake and eat it and accepting the knowledge of people who actually work in import/export like jonbxx even if it's uncomfortable.

With regard to your EU pension question, nope, I'm not Nigel Farage and you can't claim your £5!

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I just asked a reasonable binary question which people seem to avoid answering "Do you think that a decrease in the value of the Pound can lead to a rise in the cost of imported goods and services?"

That's not negative or positive.

Honesty is not pretending you can have your cake and eat it and accepting the knowledge of people who actually work in import/export like jonbxx even if it's uncomfortable.

With regard to your EU pension question, nope, I'm not Nigel Farage and you can't claim your £5!

Your reassurance is accepted!

However, the main point I was making, which I'm sure you will not disagree with, is that a decrease in the value of the pound makes it cheaper for us to export our goods.

I think that, being an honest person, you would agree that this is a fact.

I hope I have not misjudged you.

[Bircho]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

However, the main point I was making, which I'm sure you will not disagree with, is that a decrease in the value of the pound makes it cheaper for us to export our goods.

Which is good if you were to export more than you import. Except in the UK........

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Bircho

Which is good if you were to export more than you import. Except in the UK........

Well, Andrew is also concerned about out imports being more expensive. I omitted to answer this properly last night, there was a lot going on here.

What I should have said was that while EU exports are more expensive for us to import with a weaker pound, with our new found ability to trade with additional countries, those same goods may be cheaper. The EU is not necessarily the cheapest to import from, I would say.

Anyway, the cheaper pound does not seem to have affected the average man in the street much, so it's not a reason in itself not to leave the EU.

[jonbxx]

The UK isn't much of a primary manufacturer (raw materials) What's left of our manufacturing base is secondary manufacturing - making things, not materials basically. Those raw materials need to be shipped in from somewhere so while a low GBP may help exports, it adds to the costs of the raw materials used to make what we export which will impact margins.

Fun fact of the day - cars produced in the UK contain only 44% of UK made content, the rest is imported. Most trade agreements require >50% of a product to be made in country for preferential trade deals to apply. UK manufactured Nissans and Hondas would not be regarded as UK made. Some canny trade negotiations would be required here.

Source - Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/up...ew-Figures.pdf

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

cars produced in the UK contain only 44% of UK made content, the rest is imported. [/url]

You could probably say the same about most things . . . especially if you buy from the major supermarkets.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

You could probably say the same about most things . . . especially if you buy from the major supermarkets.

I'm not sure you understand Jon's point. The inference is that Nissans and Hondas will no longer be exportable from the UK.

---------- Post added at 19:59 ---------- Previous post was at 19:51 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, Andrew is also concerned about out imports being more expensive. I omitted to answer this properly last night, there was a lot going on here.

What I should have said was that while EU exports are more expensive for us to import with a weaker pound, with our new found ability to trade with additional countries, those same goods may be cheaper. The EU is not necessarily the cheapest to import from, I would say.

Anyway, the cheaper pound does not seem to have affected the average man in the street much, so it's not a reason in itself not to leave the EU.

Which countries will we be able to trade with that we're not trading now? The EU opens up access to free trade with markets like Korea, Japan, Canada, Chile and Turkey that we wouldn't get automatically. There may be a village in Africa that we might be able to sell a few pots of Marmite too if we had a free trade deal with it but membership of the EU provides the largest free trade deals. And that's before we've even counted the 500m EU residents.

[Carth]

Considering the EU imports probably 10 times the amount of cars and car parts into the UK than the UK export to the EU, I'd suggest the EU need to tread carefully if they try to shaft us on any deals regarding the Auto industry.

They need to strike a good (fair) deal or it may bite them in the exhaust manifold.

And if the motor manufacturers pull out of the UK, just slap their imports with a massive tariff - I can go without a new car for a year or two while their stock piles up

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Carth

Considering the EU imports probably 10 times the amount of cars and car parts into the UK than the UK export to the EU, I'd suggest the EU need to tread carefully if they try to shaft us on any deals regarding the Auto industry.

They need to strike a good (fair) deal or it may bite them in the exhaust manifold.

And if the motor manufacturers pull out of the UK, just slap their imports with a massive tariff - I can go without a new car for a year or two while their stock piles up

It's interesting the ones insisting on "a fair playing field" are the EU and they're so desperate we cooperate they've gone as far leaking that very statement to the press, I'm confident we'll get a deal that suits us, it won't be as good in terms of trade as we have now but it won't be that bad either.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'm not sure you understand Jon's point. The inference is that Nissans and Hondas will no longer be exportable from the UK.

---------- Post added at 19:59 ---------- Previous post was at 19:51 ----------


Which countries will we be able to trade with that we're not trading now? The EU opens up access to free trade with markets like Korea, Japan, Canada, Chile and Turkey that we wouldn't get automatically. There may be a village in Africa that we might be able to sell a few pots of Marmite too if we had a free trade deal with it but membership of the EU provides the largest free trade deals. And that's before we've even counted the 500m EU residents.

Are you aware that the USA is not a small village in Africa?