Post-Brexit Thread

Originally Posted by Osem

Yes and there'll always be clear examples on both sides of every argument. We're still left, however, with a vast array of sources whose motives and conclusions we can't be certain of one way or the other.

We can still strive for impartial information and there are things in this world which are empirically true. Something like Brexit is too broad a question for there to be an expert to tell us categorically if it's the right or wrong decision but there are aspects to Brexit in which information helps that decision and that's where experts come in useful. Experts can also make informed predictions about the future too even if that is less precise.

What's true, I feel, is that the Remain side have a whole lot more to gain by delaying/complicating this process and exploiting/creating uncertainties which may suit their argument and political standing even in the short term but won't help us to secure the best possible deal from the impending negotiations. They may not like the result but we have to get on with this now and endlessly bickering about who was more misleading than whom in the run up to the referendum is a dangerous game to play. If the House of Commons had immediately got fully behind the decision and decided to work together for the common god, would Sterling have fallen so far? I doubt it very much.

Dissent and opposition is just part of democratic politics. I don't think it can be avoided especially when the country itself, who Parliament represent, are so divided on the question. The country can't get behind the government on this when we can't agree on what we want or know what they're going for. Certainly May has not been given, in my opinion, a mandate to go for whatever version of Brexit she feels is best.

Would it help if we were all united? Probably. However I think a clear idea of what we're after and what might happen would help a lot more. It's the uncertainty and not the dissent that it causing sterling to drop IMO.

[Mr K]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37640982 Race and religious hate crimes rose 41% after EU vote

All a bit depressing. Brexit seems to have brought the worst in British people. Previously we had an excellent reputation for welcoming those making a contribution to our society. Those that aren't making a contribution seem to be the ones using this as an excuse to drag the rest of the country into the gutter.

[Ignitionnet]

Gotta say devaluation of the Pound is doing wonders for British exports.

[img][/img]

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...n-EU_Data.aspx

Non-EU Exports for August 2016 were £12.3 billion. This was an increase of £0.3 billion (2.5 per cent) on last month, and a decrease of £1.2 billion (8.7 per cent) compared with August 2015.

Non-EU Imports for for August 2016 were £22.6 billion. This was an increase of £2.4 billion (12 per cent) compared with last month, and an increase of £8.6 billion (61 per cent) compared with August 2015.

EU Exports for for August 2016 were £11.1 billion. This was a decrease of £0.8 billion (6.7 per cent) compared with last month, but an increase of £1.2 billion (12 per cent) compared with August 2015.

EU Imports for August 2016 were £18.8 billion. This was a decrease of £0.7 billion (3.8 per cent) compared with last month, however it was an increase of £2.8 billion (17 per cent) compared with August 2015.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

The independent fact checking sites.

no one is ever 100% unbiased, everyone has an angle, everybody is ultimately in it for themselves.

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Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Gotta say devaluation of the Pound is doing wonders for British exports.



https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...n-EU_Data.aspx

Range rovers have never been so cheap.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

We can still strive for impartial information and there are things in this world which are empirically true. Something like Brexit is too broad a question for there to be an expert to tell us categorically if it's the right or wrong decision but there are aspects to Brexit in which information helps that decision and that's where experts come in useful. Experts can also make informed predictions about the future too even if that is less precise.




Dissent and opposition is just part of democratic politics. I don't think it can be avoided especially when the country itself, who Parliament represent, are so divided on the question. The country can't get behind the government on this when we can't agree on what we want or know what they're going for. Certainly May has not been given, in my opinion, a mandate to go for whatever version of Brexit she feels is best.

Would it help if we were all united? Probably. However I think a clear idea of what we're after and what might happen would help a lot more. It's the uncertainty and not the dissent that it causing sterling to drop IMO.

Of course it is, but the dissent adds to the impression of uncertainty in a situation like this. It's the same during times of national crisis - sometimes party politics has to be put to one side for the greater good and I can't see how continuing in this ridiculous manner is serving anyone any good. This problem can become self fulfilling if we allow it to.

Originally Posted by Osem

Of course it is, but the dissent adds to the impression of uncertainty in a situation like this. It's the same during times of national crisis - sometimes party politics has to be put to one side for the greater good and I can't see how continuing in this ridiculous manner is serving anyone any good. This problem can become self fulfilling if we allow it to

Completely agree ,i for one want someone totally biased towards Brexit ,i do not want some wishy washy expert sitting on the fence 'cos he's impartial ,i want experts advising who will commit to a decision and stick to it because they believe it to be right .Impartiality will not do us any good in this situation.

Originally Posted by Pierre

no one is ever 100% unbiased, everyone has an angle, everybody is ultimately in it for themselves.

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Range rovers have never been so cheap.

I'm glad I don't live in your world....

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Originally Posted by martyh

Completely agree ,i for one want someone totally biased towards Brexit ,i do not want some wishy washy expert sitting on the fence 'cos he's impartial ,i want experts advising who will commit to a decision and stick to it because they believe it to be right .Impartiality will not do us any good in this situation.

Facts are impartial, interpretation isn't...

Originally Posted by Osem

Of course it is, but the dissent adds to the impression of uncertainty in a situation like this. It's the same during times of national crisis - sometimes party politics has to be put to one side for the greater good and I can't see how continuing in this ridiculous manner is serving anyone any good. This problem can become self fulfilling if we allow it to.

There are too many open questions about what kind of deal we could get to make this possible. The Government, not Parliament, will decide what terms to ask for and what to give away so there is no need to rally behind a common approach to Brexit - there isn't one.

Remainers aren't rallying around the government here but equally the Government aren't seeking to reach out to them or ally their fears. In fact the Tory Party Conference made it clear that this isn't on the cards. The 52% won and the 48% didn't and that's it. Which is fair enough, the 52% did win and the government is right and obliged to act upon that. However at the same time if everyone else is being completely shut out, their concerns dismissed as elitist and unpatriotic, then the government shouldn't expect their support either. If you choose to embrace that divide then you can't complain it exists. Again that isn't to excuse Remain, we're embracing that divide as well.

For my part I think we have to leave the EU and can't overturn the referendum, obviously. However the talk of EU worker lists, the lack of assurance for current EU citizens and leaving the single market entirely is everything I feared Brexit would be. I'm not going to support those things.

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Originally Posted by martyh

Completely agree ,i for one want someone totally biased towards Brexit ,i do not want some wishy washy expert sitting on the fence 'cos he's impartial ,i want experts advising who will commit to a decision and stick to it because they believe it to be right .Impartiality will not do us any good in this situation.

Then they're going to give you terrible advice. A good negotiation depends on you understanding the hand you've been dealt.

If I am going though a divorce I don't want my lawyer to be biased towards my side of the dispute, telling me I am better of without her, and I am going to get the house, the kids and the savings. Only to find out my case was weak and the advice, whilst being what I want to hear, was wrong and I am going to be the mug at the end of it all. Cold, hard, calculation with impartial facts is what you want from the experts advising you and extreme competence is what you want from those making deals for you. You don't want cheerleaders.

Originally Posted by Damien

However the talk of EU worker lists, the lack of assurance for current EU citizens and leaving the single market entirely is everything I feared Brexit would be. I'm not going to support those things.

We need a list of working migrants so we know who has a right to be here and who doesn't when we leave ,that's fairly obvious .There is a technical term for it that escapes me right now, something like keeping track of migrants .We will also have a list of the unemployed migrants claiming benefits ( don't tell anyone but there the ones we want rid of come leaving day)do you also object to us having a list of them ?

Then they're going to give you terrible advice. A good negotiation depends on you understanding the hand you've been dealt. If you think you have a Royal Flush and go all in then you'll feel a bit of a mug when you show a Straight instead

Rubbish ,what you will get is advice from someone who is determined to make it work for the good of the country .We are not playing cards ,trying to bluff a bad hand we have a good hand already ,we have stuff that Europe want ,they have stuff we want the only stumbling point is how easy we will make it for each other to get that stuff .We can be a lot more flexible ,there's only one of us ,the EU have 27 nations to appease all bitching behind each others backs

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Originally Posted by Damien

You don't want cheerleaders.

During Brexit we do ,absolutely we do

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

There are too many open questions about what kind of deal we could get to make this possible. The Government, not Parliament, will decide what terms to ask for and what to give away so there is no need to rally behind a common approach to Brexit - there isn't one.

Remainers aren't rallying around the government here but equally the Government aren't seeking to reach out to them or ally their fears. In fact the Tory Party Conference made it clear that this isn't on the cards. The 52% won and the 48% didn't and that's it. Which is fair enough, the 52% did win and the government is right and obliged to act upon that. However at the same time if everyone else is being completely shut out, their concerns dismissed as elitist and unpatriotic, then the government shouldn't expect their support either. If you choose to embrace that divide then you can't complain it exists. Again that isn't to excuse Remain, we're embracing that divide as well.

For my part I think we have to leave the EU and can't overturn the referendum, obviously. However the talk of EU worker lists, the lack of assurance for current EU citizens and leaving the single market entirely is everything I feared Brexit would be. I'm not going to support those things.[COLOR="Silver"]

That's part of the problem though - it's the 'talk' of this, that, or the other which is stirring everyone up, frequently with no real basis. What assurances can be given on anything substantial before negotiations have been opened without affecting our negotiating position at the same time? What assurances (or scare stories for that matter) do we get prior to elections and how often do they actually materialise? If we want to get the best deal out of Brexit we need to start the process with a strong hand having not a) already having divulged what we will be prepared to accept or b) already talked our economy down to the point where we've put the other side at a distinct advantage due to our perceived desperation.

I don't think anyone can seriously doubt that the best way to come out of any negotiation on top is to start from a position of strength rather than weakness due to a largely self-induced currency 'crisis'. Sterling aside, our economy has been performing better than the EU for some time which ought to be enhancing our position but that's all been undone, for now at least, by all the focus on Sterling and subsequent jitters.

Originally Posted by martyh

Rubbish ,what you will get is advice from someone who is determined to make it work for the good of the country .We are not playing cards ,trying to bluff a bad hand we have a good hand already ,we have stuff that Europe want ,they have stuff we want the only stumbling point is how easy we will make it for each other to get that stuff .We can be a lot more flexible ,there's only one of us ,the EU have 27 nations to appease all bitching behind each others backs

It's not rubbish although I have since revised the analogy.

Impartiality can blind you to information you may not like. You want people who'll be honest with you and give you sound advice not obscured by their personal motivations. If we have a weakness we need to know about it, if we're overplaying a hand we may not win we need to know about. Demanding we want biased experts is madness.

This:

Completely agree ,i for one want someone totally biased towards Brexit ,i do not want some wishy washy expert sitting on the fence 'cos he's impartial ,i want experts advising who will commit to a decision and stick to it because they believe it to be right .Impartiality will not do us any good in this situation.

won't help us. Thankfully I doubt the government will recruit such people and go after professionals instead.

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Originally Posted by martyh

During Brexit we do ,absolutely we do

Then what's the point in hiring them at all? You pay me £250,000 a year and I'll tell you how great you are however many times you want.

Originally Posted by Damien

It's not rubbish although I have since revised the analogy.

Impartiality can blind you to information you may not like. You want people who'll be honest with you and give you sound advice not obscured by their personal motivations. If we have a weakness we need to know about it, if we're overplaying a hand we may not win we need to know about. Demanding we want biased experts is madness.

This:



won't help us. Thankfully I doubt the government will recruit such people and go after professionals instead.

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Then what's the point in hiring them at all? You pay me £250,000 a year and I'll tell you how great you are however many times you want.

I simply do not agree ,i think your vision of a Brexit utopia full of unbiased experts refusing to commit ,always stating the worst case scenario instead of stating what is possible and working towards that, is the worst thing that can happen

Originally Posted by Osem

That's part of the problem though - it's the 'talk' of this, that, or the other which is stirring everyone up, frequently with no real basis. What assurances can be given on anything substantial before negotiations have been opened without affecting our negotiating position at the same time? What assurances (or scare stories for that matter) do we get prior to elections and how often do they actually materialise? If we want to get the best deal out of Brexit we need to start the process with a strong hand having not a) already having divulged what we will be prepared to accept or b) already talked our economy down to the point where we've put the other side at a distinct advantage due to our perceived desperation.

I don't think anyone can seriously doubt that the best way to come out of any negotiation on top is to start from a position of strength rather than weakness due to a largely self-induced currency 'crisis'. Sterling aside, our economy has been performing better than the EU for some time which ought to be enhancing our position but that's all been undone, for now at least, by all the focus on Sterling and subsequent jitters.

I think the sterling 'crisis' is precisely because we have no idea about the deal. I don't think that could be helped either way. Markets don't like uncertainty and that's what we have. Even if all Remainers went 'hoorah for Brexit!' the certainty would exist.

I agree May can't give away everything but there was no need for a lot of the lines being drawn at that conference. I also think she can't be given a blank cheque but either way she does actually have it. Since it's not a Parliamentary decision she can do whatever deal she wants. If Parliament could veto a deal when that would undermine her but it doesn't.

(maybe that's her plan? then after the deal is done, surprise vote?)

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Originally Posted by martyh

I simply do not agree ,i think your vision of a Brexit utopia full of unbiased experts refusing to commit ,always stating the worst case scenario instead of stating what is possible and working towards that, is the worst thing that can happen

I don't want experts to 'commit' I want them to give advice. I don't want them to give the worst or best case scenario, I want to know both and the likelihood of them.

Originally Posted by Damien

Then what's the point in hiring them at all? You pay me £250,000 a year and I'll tell you how great you are however many times you want.

Because we need cheerleaders to big the country up ,we will no longer have Europe to do it for us .For the last 40 yrs we have been hidden behind the skirts of Europe ,unable to make any real changes ourselves and unable to trade ourselves ,now we can so lets stop poncing about and worrying about what might happen if we do this or that and lets start making stuff happen as we want it to because that is what Germany or France would do in the same situation .

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Originally Posted by Damien

I don't want experts to 'commit' I want them to give advice. I don't want them to give the worst or best case scenario, I want to know both and the likelihood of them.

I want experts that believe in Brexit to give me advice because that is what is going to happen.They can still give sound advice .

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by martyh

I want experts that believe in Brexit to give me advice because that is what is going to happen.They can still give sound advice .

The whole case for Brexit was based on not listening to experts. The Financial Times has a good ongoing section on Brexit but for specific advice you need to spend money and speak to your accountant and lawyer.