Russia has invaded Ukraine

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Blackshep

Ukraine has planned for what comes after possible defeat I'm not going to go into any detail but if Russia thinks the fighting ends if they achieve their goals they are in for an even bigger shock then they have had already. What's becoming very evident is that the Russian military is not this unstoppable efficient steamroller they have many issue's from equipment, training, organisation and logistics all are currently being demonstrated and compounded.

This has done huge damage to Putin it's continuing to do damage and sanctions haven't fully hit yet so his problem's are mounting and while he couldn't care less what ordinary Russian's say or do (that illusion he spent time and effort creating) he does care what his rich cronies say. To say the situation in both Ukraine and Russia is fluid is understating it but there's a lot going on that isn't making it to media or public briefings that will have a great impact on events. Even if Russia succeeds today and declares victory the damage is done confidence in Putin has been very seriously dented in the Russian people, the wealthy cronies and more importantly the Russian military.

No evidence whatsover that he listens the oligarchs.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Would you rather tell them what's coming? seems a rather silly thing to do ?

Or, perhaps he should have said nothing at all?

Or, perhaps, you're having a go at Biden/US for the sake of having a go?

Originally Posted by Hugh

Pretty sure it was meant as a threat.

IMO it was rather a silly thing to say, especially to a person now regarded to be a little unhinged and under duress because it all seems to be going pear shaped.

Will Putin take it to mean even more economic sanctions . . . or a wave of incoming nukes?

[RichardCoulter]

Reports that RT has just been removed from all UK TV platforms

---------- Post added at 16:42 ---------- Previous post was at 16:03 ----------

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Be interested to see how much further they can ratchet up.

At some point NATO/The west are going to face an agonising decision, namely do we get involved in a military conflict with Russia? Or, do we abandon Ukraine to the Russians.

Whilst something is clearly off with the Russian approach, ultimately, with enough resources/time they will take Ukraine. We can give the Ukranians weapons & humanitarian aid all we want but if there is not a reasonably trained force to be able to deploy them.....

Totally agree. If we decide that abandoning the Ukraine to the Russians is the best course of action, I doubt that Putin will leave it there having got away with it once. Then we will have to make the same decision again.

I'm hoping that his own people will bring him down as, if not, we are looking at WWIII now or in the future, nuclear or otherwise.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Reports that RT has just been removed from all UK TV platforms

---------- Post added at 16:42 ---------- Previous post was at 16:03 ----------



Totally agree. If we decide that abandoning the Ukraine to the Russians is the best course of action, I doubt that Putin will leave it there having got away with it once. Then we will have to make the same decision again.

I'm hoping that his own people will bring him down as, if not, we are looking at WWIII now or in the future, nuclear or otherwise.

Further to your queries about internet access last night, a truckload of Starlink sat broadband dishes have arrived in Ukraine, courtesy of their owner, Elon Musk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60561162

Starlink is based on the latest low-earth-orbit technology, and uses hundreds of fast moving satellites that would be extremely difficult for a hostile actor to jam. The connection is fast and reliable (I have friends using it very happily in Wales, where there’s scant ADSL or 4G). It does, however, require a specially designed, motorised dish. You can’t use a TV dish, or even the sort of fixed sat broadband dish that has previously been used to bring broadband to hard-to-reach places.

[RichardCoulter]

That's good news as, even if the internet is taken out or Rusdia succeed in taking control of Ukrainia, they will still be able to let the West know what is happening.

It's a shame that most DTH users won't have access to this system though.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

At some point NATO/The west are going to face an agonising decision, namely do we get involved in a military conflict with Russia? Or, do we abandon Ukraine to the Russians..

Russia may have the might to push into Ukraine, take a few major cities and potentially depose the government.

But do they have numbers to hold the country. Does he want to become embroiled in a partisan guerrilla conflict that would continue for years. Any resistance would be well armed, financed and trained by the a West. Mercenaries of all nationalities I’m sure would join too.

This would not end with the fall of Kiev.

---------- Post added at 17:14 ---------- Previous post was at 17:11 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Intended…

Here’s a good (imho) thread on perhaps why it’s not going so well for the Russian ground forces (most of whom are inexperienced conscripts) in Ukraine (written by a Ukrainian living in Australia).

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...512765953.html

That’s a good analysis.

---------- Post added at 17:16 ---------- Previous post was at 17:14 ----------

Originally Posted by Blackshep

Ukraine has planned for what comes after possible defeat I'm not going to go into any detail but if Russia thinks the fighting ends if they achieve their goals they are in for an even bigger shock then they have had already. What's becoming very evident is that the Russian military is not this unstoppable efficient steamroller they have many issue's from equipment, training, organisation and logistics all are currently being demonstrated and compounded.

This has done huge damage to Putin it's continuing to do damage and sanctions haven't fully hit yet so his problem's are mounting and while he couldn't care less what ordinary Russian's say or do (that illusion he spent time and effort creating) he does care what his rich cronies say. To say the situation in both Ukraine and Russia is fluid is understating it but there's a lot going on that isn't making it to media or public briefings that will have a great impact on events. Even if Russia succeeds today and declares victory the damage is done confidence in Putin has been very seriously dented in the Russian people, the wealthy cronies and more importantly the Russian military.

Indeed, Putin has only driven his country into a Cul-de-sac.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Russia may have the might to push into Ukraine, take a few major cities and potentially depose the government.

But do they have numbers to hold the country. Does he want to become embroiled in a partisan guerrilla conflict that would continue for years. Any resistance would be well armed, financed and trained by the a West. Mercenaries of all nationalities I’m sure would join too.

This would not end with the fall of Kiev.

---------- Post added at 17:14 ---------- Previous post was at 17:11 ----------



That’s a good analysis.

---------- Post added at 17:16 ---------- Previous post was at 17:14 ----------


Indeed, Putin has only driven his country into a Cul-de-sac.

You're applying rational to a man who has quite clearly lost the plot......

[TimeLord2018]

Roman Abramovich confirms he will sell Chelsea - with all 'net proceeds' to benefit victims of Ukraine war
https://news.sky.com/story/roman-abr...e-war-12555801

[Blackshep]

Putin has a close circle of oligarch's and military officer's that are the bedrock of his support and are essential for him to remain in power even though he's put much effort into the illusion of "a man alone". Right now it's anyone's guess to what extent he's taking advise but if he isolates himself and attempt's to further escalate it will create an unstable and unpredictable situation that nobody other then Putin is prepared to risk.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by TimeLord2018

Roman Abramovich confirms he will sell Chelsea - with all 'net proceeds' to benefit victims of Ukraine war
https://news.sky.com/story/roman-abr...e-war-12555801

He's selling a lot of his UK property too, before he gets collared. Basically he's taking the money and running. As for 'net proceeds' if he sells at a loss they'll he none.
Suspect he has a nice semi-detached in Leningrad to escape to...

[Blackshep]

This would be the perfect time to introduce crisis visa's giving entry while this continues with an obligation for them to return to Ukraine when normality is resumed, that normality being a free and fairly elected government in Ukraine.

Latest UK Intel:

Another interesting thread I came across, which goes done way to explaining perhaps why the 40 mile convoy hadn’t moved much…

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...ubcJGaaQWk10-w

This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.

For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system. One of the biggest reasons for the repositioning, per TACOM logistic Representatives, was that direct sunlight ages truck tires. The repositioning of Trucks in close parking prevents a lot of this sun rotting and cycling the CTIS keeps the tire sidewalls supple.

When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.

Now look at the same Pantsir-S1 tire sidewalls after the Ukrainians tried to tow or drive it out of the mud. The right rear tire fell apart because the rips in it were too big for the CTIS to keep aired up. No one exercised that vehicle for 1 year.

There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV's now in Ukraine.

The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season. And there is photographic evidence of this. There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.

Given the demonstrated levels of corruption in truck maintenance. There is no way in h--l that there are enough tires in the Russian army logistical system.

So their wheeled AFV/truck park is as road bound as Russian Army columns were in the 1st Russo-Finnish War. What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening, the Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV's wide.

When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Finns in 1939 destroying Russian truck columns.

The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there. But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.

ps - those Pantsir-S1’s cost $15 million each…

[papa smurf]

'Dead or alive!' Russian businessman places $1m bounty on Vladimir Putin’s head

The businessman posted: “I promise to pay $1,000,000 to the officer(s) who, complying with their constitutional duty, arrest(s) Putin as a war criminal under Russian and international laws.

“Putin is not the Russian president as he came to power as the result of a special operation of blowing up apartment buildings in Russia, then violated the Constitution by eliminating free elections and murdering his opponents.”

He then attached a photo of Vladimir Putin to the post, pinned with the caption: “Wanted: Dead or alive. Vladimir Putin for mass murder.”


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...kedin-facebook

I think this wins the "Worst Twitter Post About The Ukraine War" competition.

(Melville is a political commentator and publicist).