Humza’s Hassles (a.k.a. Goodbye Greens)

Originally Posted by Chris

There are too many variables because not everyone is acting entirely rationally. Humza has no tactical awareness whatsoever and seems to have been blindsided by all of this. The Greens, having indicated they were likely to throw a tantrum next month, are shocked - shocked, I tell you - that someone else got there first and properly threw their knitted hemp rattle out of the pram in a way that would make them look even more mental if they do actually vote to save Humza next week. Though, looking even more mental doesn’t seem to be of great concern to the Greens so who knows what will happen.

I think Labour’s interests are served by the chaos regardless of the outcome because all the seats they want to win for Westminster and eventually for Holyrood are presently in SNP hands. Whether they take them now or later is unlikely to be a pressing matter and in any case they might prefer to spread the cost of their campaigning rather than have it all happening this year.

They have to have an election in 2026 anyway but 2026 might prove a problem. It's far enough away from the National General Election that any honeymoon period has worn off but too early for any real success to be shown.

I would imagine Labour are concerned that discontentment will be high in 2026. It might be easier for them to fight that election with the SNP being in office.

Otherwise, there is a chance SNP get their stuff together and fight that election against an unpopular Labour government in both Westminster and Holyrood.

[jfman]

It’s put up or shut up time. They’ll look like a laughing stock (more than the Greens) if they have the votes and don’t force an election.

[jfman]

Tomorrow’s Times reporting he’s come to the conclusion he should stand down which would remove the need for the Ross motion, but not the Sarwar one as it’s in the Government as a whole.

Swinney being touted as “interim” FM (although reluctant) while the SNP pick a new leader by July-ish.

BBC now seems confident that he is in fact going.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-68918348

[jfman]

It’s going to get incredibly messy. Even if the Conservative motion doesn’t succeed the Parliament still needs to elect a new (if interim) FM to prevent an election within 28 days. Is there such a unifying figure out there? And if there is, the Greens will no doubt seek to threaten the SNP around who they should be choosing as leader.

In some sense the only way the SNP gets that monkey off their back is to force the election they don’t want (does anyone bar Labour actually want it?). They could return as the largest party, but significantly short of a majority. No guarantee they form a minority government.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Chris

BBC now seems confident that he is in fact going.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-68918348

Yup, he's gone

Humza Yousaf fell off a scooter
Tripped over a hippie
Fell down the stairs at Bute House

Ouch!

[Stephen]

The party is a total joke now. They can't expect they'll win any elections now surely.

Originally Posted by Stephen

The party is a total joke now. They can't expect they'll win any elections now surely.

That depends. The lure of the Indymince cult is strong.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Chris

That depends. The lure of the Indymince cult is strong.

You are not wrong. Look what the Brexit cult delivered