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Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !
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Old 21-08-2017, 10:24   #2671
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Patrick Minford is a classic for pushing the zero tariff approach to Brexit. he admitted that UK industry would virtually disappear if we went down this route but it was a still a good idea. Mind you, this is the same respected academic who said UKs GDP would drop by 20% with the introduction of the minimum wage.

Feel free to ignore this on reading who the authors are but here's a review of Economists for Brexits models and the flaws within - http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpo...ws-of-gravity/

This is a similar situation to climate change and vaccines - the vast majority of experts predict one outcome while a minority predict another. If the minority prediction fits peoples vision, then they are the only experts worth listening to
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Old 24-08-2017, 16:34   #2672
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Germany shifts 50,000 gold bars overseas back to Frankfurt amid Eurozone collapse fears

hitler's gold the gift that keeps on giving

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...inance-economy
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Old 24-08-2017, 16:46   #2673
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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Originally Posted by papa smurf View Post
Germany shifts 50,000 gold bars overseas back to Frankfurt amid Eurozone collapse fears

Quote:
Should Germany face an economic emergency, the precious metal can be converted into pounds or dollars.
That must hurt them even more, knowing that our currency is still considered one of the two solid ones.

Can I say I loved the comments in the article about some of the gold bar being ex-teeth, or do you get reported to the police for a hate crime these days? So confusing having to second think if anyone might get offended by taking a comment the wrong way :P
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Old 24-08-2017, 23:09   #2674
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:
Pound to euro exchange rate: Brexit fears see sterling slump to eight-year low
Sterling slumped to an eight-year low against the euro on Wednesday, which experts put down to Brexit uncertainty and stronger than expected growth in the eurozone economy.
The pound was down 0.5 per cent to 1.083 versus the euro as the London market closed, hitting its lowest level since October 2009...
Southampton airport had the worst exchange rate where customers were offered just 0.872 euros to £1. For every £1,000, travellers would get just 872 euros.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/p...-a3618891.html

Hopefully the £ will rise a bit after the Conservative Party Conference. The rumours are that Boris who has been extremely quiet of late will make a leadership challenge. This is damaging an already-weak £ taking it back to levels only seen during the Financial Crisis.

Last edited by 1andrew1; 24-08-2017 at 23:21.
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Old 25-08-2017, 10:18   #2675
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/p...-a3618891.html

Hopefully the £ will rise a bit after the Conservative Party Conference. The rumours are that Boris who has been extremely quiet of late will make a leadership challenge. This is damaging an already-weak £ taking it back to levels only seen during the Financial Crisis.
No worries, Andrew. I'm sure that Theresa will continue to reign supreme.
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Old 25-08-2017, 10:58   #2676
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

As a B&B owner with a high proportion of foreign visitors, I am in effect an exporter of services, and I can tell you that the currency situation is doing no harm at all to those who export more than they import. Exporting is the future and once we're free of the Customs Union and able to make reciprocal deals with the whole world rather than just the EU, those who can export are going to do very nicely indeed, as are those who are able to exploit the relative expense of imported goods by manufacturing domestically at a more competitive price.
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Old 25-08-2017, 17:55   #2677
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
As a B&B owner with a high proportion of foreign visitors, I am in effect an exporter of services, and I can tell you that the currency situation is doing no harm at all to those who export more than they import. Exporting is the future and once we're free of the Customs Union and able to make reciprocal deals with the whole world rather than just the EU, those who can export are going to do very nicely indeed, as are those who are able to exploit the relative expense of imported goods by manufacturing domestically at a more competitive price.
I know! Remainders are talking as if the fall in the value of the pound is a bad thing, whereas it's the best thing that could have happened for our exporters.

The pound was over-valued before anyway, and this is no more than a long awaited correction.
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Old 26-08-2017, 13:00   #2678
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

If the UK is to export more then the value of Sterling is key to that and the higher it is the harder that gets. The low pound is also making the UK less appealing to EU migrants and that, IMHO, is a big factor in the latest migration stats.

Last edited by Osem; 26-08-2017 at 13:05.
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Old 26-08-2017, 18:49   #2679
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem View Post
If the UK is to export more then the value of Sterling is key to that and the higher it is the harder that gets. The low pound is also making the UK less appealing to EU migrants and that, IMHO, is a big factor in the latest migration stats.
Yes, it's all good in my book. I really don't know what the remainers are afraid of. Although some can't deal with change very well, which is understandable, I suppose.

I see so many opportunities opening up for us with Brexit. I really do think the remainers will be pleasantly surprised when they see the results.
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Old 26-08-2017, 19:08   #2680
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Yes, it's all good in my book. I really don't know what the remainers are afraid of. Although some can't deal with change very well, which is understandable, I suppose.

I see so many opportunities opening up for us with Brexit. I really do think the remainers will be pleasantly surprised when they see the results.
Anyone would think there was no productive life outside the EU and no possibility of mutually beneficial relationships between us and them after Brexit. It's really quite bizarre how some people are evidently so wedded to the idea of being part of a club committed to achieving a single European state that they'd peddle all the nonsense about the those wanting to leave hating Europeans blah blah blah. I don't know anyone who hates Europe but I do know plenty of people who hate what the EU has become and where it's headed. There's plenty more who feel the same within the EU too just in case anyone hadn't noticed. The trouble is the Eurocrats don't want to accept it and that's what's led us here.
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Old 27-08-2017, 23:35   #2681
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I know! Remainders are talking as if the fall in the value of the pound is a bad thing, whereas it's the best thing that could have happened for our exporters.

The pound was over-valued before anyway, and this is no more than a long awaited correction.
True, though so far more than balanced by a drop in consumption and investment.

See how it settles in the longer run. So far this has been the most ineffective devaluation in terms of impact on exports since at least the 70s. Most of what we export is, for obvious reasons, not all that price sensitive.

Our export market has changed dramatically. We are world leaders in a few fields, those fields aren't that dependent on costs. Items that are price-sensitive are produced in countries where the cost of said production is far lower than anything a Sterling devaluation could allow us to reach.

Once inflation has run its course it'll be worth watching what happens.

---------- Post added at 22:35 ---------- Previous post was at 22:25 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
As a B&B owner with a high proportion of foreign visitors, I am in effect an exporter of services, and I can tell you that the currency situation is doing no harm at all to those who export more than they import. Exporting is the future and once we're free of the Customs Union and able to make reciprocal deals with the whole world rather than just the EU, those who can export are going to do very nicely indeed, as are those who are able to exploit the relative expense of imported goods by manufacturing domestically at a more competitive price.
I'm fairly sure the Customs Union doesn't impact on export of services outside of the European Union, the Common External Tariff is on goods, and trade deals that include services are extremely rare and usually come in things like the EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, etc, rather than bilateral deals. These carry a whole bunch of things with them that may prove unpalatable to those concerned about total 'sovereignty' whatever that is.

About 80% of our economy and an even higher proportion of exports are services.

Even free trade agreements on goods aren't trivial. We have FTAs with about 65% of the world economy right now. That's not going to be trivial to replace in a way that doesn't cause some enormous problems for some sectors of our economy. I've read the stuff about unilaterally declaring zero tariffs. It'd be absolutely insane.

You make a valid point about manufacturing finished goods domestically, however we aren't exactly raw material rich as a nation and factory gate inflation has been a big issue that's undone a fair amount of the benefits of the devaluation.

It's been good for my employer though for sure - even with the pay rise they gave me I'm still 15% cheaper than I was a bit over a year ago
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Old 28-08-2017, 11:50   #2682
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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It's been good for my employer though for sure - even with the pay rise they gave me I'm still 15% cheaper than I was a bit over a year ago
That may well be true but you are still a lot more expensive that your potential colleagues in China and India ...
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Old 28-08-2017, 12:53   #2683
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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That may well be true but you are still a lot more expensive that your potential colleagues in China and India ...
But then there is the Culture differences - I have worked with/opened up outsourcing in India, China, and Vietnam, and the challenge with the Chinese and Indian outsourced resource is "face"; they don't want to contradict you/let you know things aren't going well, so you have to have lots of resources involved in checking/planning/rechecking.

That's why most companies don't outsource their Project Managers/Solution Architects/Network Engineers/Business Analysts - keep the management/oversight in the country, coding outside (and there are still issues with that model).
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Old 28-08-2017, 19:00   #2684
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
But then there is the Culture differences - I have worked with/opened up outsourcing in India, China, and Vietnam, and the challenge with the Chinese and Indian outsourced resource is "face"; they don't want to contradict you/let you know things aren't going well, so you have to have lots of resources involved in checking/planning/rechecking.

That's why most companies don't outsource their Project Managers/Solution Architects/Network Engineers/Business Analysts - keep the management/oversight in the country, coding outside (and there are still issues with that model).
And let them deal with customers problems.
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Old 28-08-2017, 21:33   #2685
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Re: Brexit: Article 50 Has Been Triggered !

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Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
That may well be true but you are still a lot more expensive that your potential colleagues in China and India ...
Indeed I am. Just as well there's no viable replacement for me there at this time
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