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Old 28-09-2017, 13:43   #271
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Osem View Post
Yeah that's called the real world. It's happened and we're still in the EU, the EU hasn't prevented it and isn't immune from similar action by the US if they decide it's warranted so I have no idea what your point is.
The point I would imagine is just how difficult it would be in negotiating a trading deal with the US. Especially in the very anti-free trade, pro-protectionist, environment we have now. The truth is the terms of any deal will be far more favourable to the US than the UK.
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Old 28-09-2017, 15:52   #272
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
The point I would imagine is just how difficult it would be in negotiating a trading deal with the US. Especially in the very anti-free trade, pro-protectionist, environment we have now. The truth is the terms of any deal will be far more favourable to the US than the UK.
I am sure that any deal the UK enters into with the US will benefit both sides, or else a deal won't be struck at all. After all, we can still trade with the US without a trade deal.

As for TTIP, don't expect the EU to sign up to that any time soon. I would have been in my grave for a century by the time that happens, and even that will be a miracle!
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Old 28-09-2017, 17:27   #273
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
The point I would imagine is just how difficult it would be in negotiating a trading deal with the US. Especially in the very anti-free trade, pro-protectionist, environment we have now. The truth is the terms of any deal will be far more favourable to the US than the UK.
And is that any different within the EU? The EU is far more antagonistic towards the US than the UK is so if things get bad with the Americans the EU is going to suffer just as much if not more than we are.

The 'deal' we currently have have with the EU as a member is far more favourable to them than us in various ways which is why we voted to leave. Some people seem to want more of the same EU but not even that is on the agenda because the EU isn't changing it's stance positively on anything and is heading unerringly to a harder stance on everything. The US isn't going to just accept that and outside of Eurolalaland the UK will be well placed to make what concessions it wants to without being held to ransom by Brussels.
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Old 28-09-2017, 21:18   #274
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Re: Brexit discussion

Trump will tell us to naff off. It's 'America First' remember. We need the EU, the EU is better off with us. The US can quite happily survive without the UK. Other countries e.g. India, are going to demand access for their citizens to the UK in any trade deal. Alone we have a very poor hand of cards to play (e.g what exactly do we produce that is vital for any other country and they can't get elsewhere ?)
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Old 28-09-2017, 22:43   #275
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Osem View Post
And is that any different within the EU? The EU is far more antagonistic towards the US than the UK is so if things get bad with the Americans the EU is going to suffer just as much if not more than we are..
I am saying that one of the arguments to the added friction we'll have when trading with the EU post-Brexit is that we'll make up for it with trade deals elsewhere. The Bombardier case is an example that this will be hard and it's not an ideal environment to do so.

Anyway looks like the figures we had for how much we trade outside of the EU might have been overestimated:

http://news.sky.com/story/revealed-h...gures-11057545

Quote:
Doubt has been cast over one of the longest-standing economic claims in the Brexit debate after a Sky investigation revealed that Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.
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Old 28-09-2017, 23:15   #276
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Re: Brexit discussion

If people on here are not aware of what the UK has to offer the U.S.A then you really don't understand the current arrangement we have much less any future deal and the U.S.A will definately be open to a wider trade aggreement then we currently have. Having observed the attitude on here that the UK has nothing to offer and will accept table scraps from whoever we do trade deals with also shows that despite what you think you don't understand or have any real knowledge of a sector where the UK is at worst at the forefront and usually is ahead of all competitors.

Personally I'm sick and tired of the entire defeatist attitude and the willingness at any point to run the UK down and often by elevating the position of the EU. Deals are being negotiated already and thank god the people handling them don't have the online attitude and view of the UK. Yes so far our negotiations with the EU haven't been very positive but I'm starting to understand the approach and the outcome that is being prepared for. I think the best thing for some on here is to move to the EU and leave the UK in your back mirror best outcome for everyone.
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Old 28-09-2017, 23:56   #277
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing View Post
If people on here are not aware of what the UK has to offer the U.S.A then you really don't understand the current arrangement we have much less any future deal and the U.S.A will definately be open to a wider trade aggreement then we currently have. Having observed the attitude on here that the UK has nothing to offer and will accept table scraps from whoever we do trade deals with also shows that despite what you think you don't understand or have any real knowledge of a sector where the UK is at worst at the forefront and usually is ahead of all competitors.

Personally I'm sick and tired of the entire defeatist attitude and the willingness at any point to run the UK down and often by elevating the position of the EU. Deals are being negotiated already and thank god the people handling them don't have the online attitude and view of the UK. Yes so far our negotiations with the EU haven't been very positive but I'm starting to understand the approach and the outcome that is being prepared for. I think the best thing for some on here is to move to the EU and leave the UK in your back mirror best outcome for everyone.
Damien's made some great evidence-based points but you've not responded to any of them.

---------- Post added at 23:48 ---------- Previous post was at 23:27 ----------

Meanwhile, the EU 27 have an interesting solution to the island of Ireland dilemma.
Quote:
The European Parliament is to call for Northern Ireland to stay in the single market and customs union in order to protect the integrity of the EU’s borders.
MEPs have concluded it is the best solution to the problem of ensuring there is no border in Ireland. The move has the support of all major political groups.


---------- Post added at 23:56 ---------- Previous post was at 23:48 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
As for TTIP, don't expect the EU to sign up to that any time soon. I would have been in my grave for a century by the time that happens, and even that will be a miracle!
When do you reckon the UK will sign up to TTIP?
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Old 28-09-2017, 23:58   #278
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Re: Brexit discussion

Because I wasn't responding to Damien i was responding to the general attitude on here and it's why i will soon not be bothering with this forum as i have with others. Thankfully I've found a couple of forums where this is being discussed with a far better balance then here and no it doesn't mean they are totally pro brexit but neither are they pro EU either. This isn't really a discussion it's brexit bashing and completely disregarding the strengths of the UK with most commentator's being happy to languish in negativity and running down the UK every chance they get. Clearly I don't fit in with this forum and rather then expect it to change I'll leave it for greener personal pastures .
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Old 29-09-2017, 01:13   #279
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing View Post
If people on here are not aware of what the UK has to offer the U.S.A then you really don't understand the current arrangement we have much less any future deal and the U.S.A will definately be open to a wider trade aggreement then we currently have. Having observed the attitude on here that the UK has nothing to offer and will accept table scraps from whoever we do trade deals with also shows that despite what you think you don't understand or have any real knowledge of a sector where the UK is at worst at the forefront and usually is ahead of all competitors.

Personally I'm sick and tired of the entire defeatist attitude and the willingness at any point to run the UK down and often by elevating the position of the EU. Deals are being negotiated already and thank god the people handling them don't have the online attitude and view of the UK. Yes so far our negotiations with the EU haven't been very positive but I'm starting to understand the approach and the outcome that is being prepared for. I think the best thing for some on here is to move to the EU and leave the UK in your back mirror best outcome for everyone.
I don't understand the future arrangement/ deal, perhaps you can enlighten me on what we'll be selling them in the future that we don't now, we already know they've attached conditions on us like chlorinated chicken, hormone fed beef and gm crops before they'll do a deal but what are we going to be getting out of it apart from these delicacies
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Old 29-09-2017, 09:30   #280
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing View Post
If people on here are not aware of what the UK has to offer the U.S.A then you really don't understand the current arrangement we have much less any future deal and the U.S.A will definately be open to a wider trade aggreement then we currently have. Having observed the attitude on here that the UK has nothing to offer and will accept table scraps from whoever we do trade deals with also shows that despite what you think you don't understand or have any real knowledge of a sector where the UK is at worst at the forefront and usually is ahead of all competitors.
Do you think something better than TTIP is possible if we go alone?
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Old 29-09-2017, 14:20   #281
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by jonbxx View Post
Do you think something better than TTIP is possible if we go alone?
Better for the United States, definitely. For the UK, debatable.

---------- Post added at 12:07 ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 ----------

*Sigh*

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/e...-divorce-terms

This is not helpful. It is not the European Parliament's place to make this decision, it is down to the European Council.

The timing of this is provocative and the entire exercise pointless.

---------- Post added at 14:05 ---------- Previous post was at 12:07 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem View Post
And is that any different within the EU? The EU is far more antagonistic towards the US than the UK is so if things get bad with the Americans the EU is going to suffer just as much if not more than we are.

The 'deal' we currently have have with the EU as a member is far more favourable to them than us in various ways which is why we voted to leave.
On the first point - exactly. The EU can retaliate against the US more effectively than the UK alone can, so they would be far less willing to engage in anti-competitive trade practices with it.

On the second point it's absurd to suggest that most people made the decision based on that. As I've written a whole bunch of times there is a really good reason why the economy didn't feature highly in either Vote Leave or Leave.EU's campaigns. However often people repeat that even most of the vote either way was from well informed people who weighed up the evidence and made sober, fact-based decisions based on the likely future either way it doesn't make it any more factual. Pretty much no-one was adequately informed or in a position to make a completely educated decision.

The economic impact, at least, of EU membership is, going by the middle of the line consensus, an economic advantage to both EU and UK. If this were not the case I'm pretty sure we'd have heard a lot more about this and a lot less about sovereignty, immigration and 350 million a week from the Leave campaign. The slogan was 'Vote Leave, take control' not 'Vote Leave and the UK will be wealthier.'.

---------- Post added at 14:20 ---------- Previous post was at 14:05 ----------

In a slightly different point good grief, Dan Hannan really has gone off the deep end. I genuinely can't believe I used to take this man seriously. He's a moron, a liar, or both.



The tariff is on finished aircraft from Bombardier. As in Bombardier, Quebec, Canada. As in Canada, member of NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, along with the USA and Mexico, an agreement considerably deeper and more encompassing than a basic FTA.

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Old 29-09-2017, 22:55   #282
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet View Post
In a slightly different point good grief, Dan Hannan really has gone off the deep end. I genuinely can't believe I used to take this man seriously. He's a moron, a liar, or both.



The tariff is on finished aircraft from Bombardier. As in Bombardier, Quebec, Canada. As in Canada, member of NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement, along with the USA and Mexico, an agreement considerably deeper and more encompassing than a basic FTA.
He's just plain dishonest. He'll stop at nothing to get his precious Brexit.

The Irish PM has correctly analysed the situation. “It could well turn out to be a lesson for the UK,” Mr Varadkar said during a summit of European leaders in Tallinn, Estonia on Friday. “There’s been a lot of talk of a new trade deal between the UK and the US and how great that would be for the UK but we are now talking about the possibility of a trade war.” Referring to the issues raised by the Bombardier case, Mr Varadkar said: “Every country in the EU is a small country. We’re stronger together as a trading bloc.” https://www.ft.com/content/bc27d22c-...f-7f5e6a7c98a2

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Old 30-09-2017, 18:25   #283
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Re: Brexit discussion

Hmm.

http://news.sky.com/story/sir-jeremy...m-fox-11059514

Quote:
Sir Jeremy Heywood urged to investigate Boris Johnson and Liam Fox

The Foreign Secretary and International Trade Secretary are accused of breaching Cabinet rules by hosting a think tank launch.

Britain's top civil servant has been urged to investigate Boris Johnson and Liam Fox for a potential breach of Cabinet rules.

Labour MPs have written to Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood asking him to examine the launch of the new Institute for Free Trade (IFT) think tank earlier this week.

Hosted by the Foreign Secretary, Wednesday night's event was held in the Foreign Office's Map Room.

In the letter, Sir Jeremy has been encouraged to rule on whether this contravenes the ministerial code for government ministers, which states: "Government property should not generally be used for constituency work or party political activities."
Those people who voted leave thinking it would deliver lower immigration would be extremely disappointed in the IFT's vision: it's essentially a deregulated, low tax, zero trade barrier economy along the lines of Singapore, and evidently that vision is one shared at the upper echelons of government. Half of Singapore's population are immigrants, their economy relies on free movement of goods, services, capital and labour where possible.

This vision is actually pretty much what you would expect from Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Daniel Hannan, etc. They are neo-liberal in the extreme. I have no idea what else anyone would've expected them to look for.

That aside it seems abundantly clear that we shouldn't be paying for celebration of the launch of a think tank. Daniel Hannan is not a part of HMG, but is certainly a member of the Conservative Party and a Conservative MEP.

Be interesting to see what happens.

What a fantastic choice we have in the UK. The Tory dog is having its tail wagged by those who want the UK to become Singapore, and they find the EU too socialist, restrictive, etc, the Labour leader wants Brexit because those awful neo-liberal EU types prevent his protectionism and state subsidy plans but seems to be slowly pushed towards a more moderate position.

Schrodinger's European Union. The libertarian-right think it's socialist and protectionist, the authoritarian-left think it's neo-liberal crony capitalist. We were promised Schrodinger's exit from the EU: all things were promised to all people depending on their own desires. The socialist case was made by some, the neo-liberal case by others, with those awful people in the middle that've become pretty much marginalised now in this new era of extremes wanting the UK to leave the political union but continue to pool sovereignty as a part of the EEA.

I'm hoping that the Conservative Party conference gets their internal power struggles sorted so that this process and, indeed, the entire Government, is no longer being run as a proxy war for control of that party and we get a clearer idea of what exactly the plans are. Right now I've no idea as Boris Johnson can't seem to keep it schtum and Liam Fox has a history of mentally masturbating over the idea of deregulation and a bonfire of workers' rights that he's reminded us of with his support for Hannan's think tank while Theresa May, echoed by Phillip Hammond, talks about a less turbulent approach.

I personally would probably benefit from the IFT's approach. Chances are 90%+ of this forum and the country wouldn't. Singapore is wealthy, and for those with means it's an incredible place. It's also horrifically unequal, and the Government have control over many things Hannan et al would leave to the private sector making things potentially worse here.

Last edited by Ignitionnet; 30-09-2017 at 18:40.
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Old 30-09-2017, 20:12   #284
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet View Post
Hmm.

http://news.sky.com/story/sir-jeremy...m-fox-11059514



Those people who voted leave thinking it would deliver lower immigration would be extremely disappointed in the IFT's vision: it's essentially a deregulated, low tax, zero trade barrier economy along the lines of Singapore, and evidently that vision is one shared at the upper echelons of government. Half of Singapore's population are immigrants, their economy relies on free movement of goods, services, capital and labour where possible.

This vision is actually pretty much what you would expect from Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Daniel Hannan, etc. They are neo-liberal in the extreme. I have no idea what else anyone would've expected them to look for.

That aside it seems abundantly clear that we shouldn't be paying for celebration of the launch of a think tank. Daniel Hannan is not a part of HMG, but is certainly a member of the Conservative Party and a Conservative MEP.

Be interesting to see what happens.

What a fantastic choice we have in the UK. The Tory dog is having its tail wagged by those who want the UK to become Singapore, and they find the EU too socialist, restrictive, etc, the Labour leader wants Brexit because those awful neo-liberal EU types prevent his protectionism and state subsidy plans but seems to be slowly pushed towards a more moderate position.

Schrodinger's European Union. The libertarian-right think it's socialist and protectionist, the authoritarian-left think it's neo-liberal crony capitalist. We were promised Schrodinger's exit from the EU: all things were promised to all people depending on their own desires. The socialist case was made by some, the neo-liberal case by others, with those awful people in the middle that've become pretty much marginalised now in this new era of extremes wanting the UK to leave the political union but continue to pool sovereignty as a part of the EEA.

I'm hoping that the Conservative Party conference gets their internal power struggles sorted so that this process and, indeed, the entire Government, is no longer being run as a proxy war for control of that party and we get a clearer idea of what exactly the plans are. Right now I've no idea as Boris Johnson can't seem to keep it schtum and Liam Fox has a history of mentally masturbating over the idea of deregulation and a bonfire of workers' rights that he's reminded us of with his support for Hannan's think tank while Theresa May, echoed by Phillip Hammond, talks about a less turbulent approach.

I personally would probably benefit from the IFT's approach. Chances are 90%+ of this forum and the country wouldn't. Singapore is wealthy, and for those with means it's an incredible place. It's also horrifically unequal, and the Government have control over many things Hannan et al would leave to the private sector making things potentially worse here.
Talking of Mr Hannan, James O'Brien response to a pretty dumb Tweet:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/914054003234951168

Mr Hannan:

Quote:
Leaving the EU is a bit like moving to a nicer home. The move can involve stressful moments, but it's worth it.
Mr O'Brien:

Quote:
Hands up if you'd move to a house you'd never seen because a spivvy estate agent swore blind it was 'nicer' than your current lovely home.
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Old 01-10-2017, 19:46   #285
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Re: Brexit discussion

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/u-shocks-w...175328264.html

Quote:
GENEVA (Reuters) - The United States surprised a meeting of the World Trade Organization on Friday with an interpretation of dispute settlement rules some said was a bid to boost President Donald Trump's plans to reform the global body.

Its view, expressed by the U.S. WTO representative, was seen as opening the door for individual WTO member states to block appeals rulings in certain cases, undermining a trade dispute system that is highly regarded by many trade experts.

"It's power politics," one trade diplomat who attended the meeting said.
So this is promising.
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