Brexit discussion

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Ooof - FT research shows that the weekly hit to the British economy could be the same £350m that Leave campaigners promised to claw back https://www.ft.com/content/e3b29230-...9-c64b1c09b482

'Could be', being the key words.

And on what data are they basing this research on?

We have not left yet, so how such data can be erroneously predicted on a whim, is baffling, but I suppose yet again, this is fear mongering at it's finest from the hard line remainers and easily ignored.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Mick

'Could be', being the key words.

And on what data are they basing this research on?

We have not left yet, so how such data can be erroneously predicted on a whim, is baffling, but I suppose yet again, this is fear mongering at it's finest from the hard line remainers and easily ignored.

Did you read the article? The methodology is all in there. It takes three different methods of projecting GDP growth (previous performance, measuring against peers and difference between forecast and the current reality to build 14 counterfactual scenarios) Note this article doesn't predict future performance but use current figures for the countries GDP. Even the Institute of Economic Affairs, a Pro Brexit think tank says the figures are reasonable.

However, you say the article is erroneous - which bits are wrong?

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Did you read the article? The methodology is all in there. It takes three different methods of projecting GDP growth (previous performance, measuring against peers and difference between forecast and the current reality to build 14 counterfactual scenarios) Note this article doesn't predict future performance but use current figures for the countries GDP. Even the Institute of Economic Affairs, a Pro Brexit think tank says the figures are reasonable.

However, you say the article is erroneous - which bits are wrong?

Did I read it, you ask?

Absolutely not, not a great fan of reading fiction.

Meanwhile, the DUP asked the Prime Minister today regarding Labour's ever so confusing stance on Brexit, as it changes like the wind direction, this time on a second referendum and insisting the PM enacts the results of the first referendum...

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/942803115698421760

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Mick

Did I read it, you ask?

Absolutely not, not a great fan of reading fiction

So you have no evidence that it is erroneous or fiction...

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

So you have no evidence that it is erroneous or fiction...

It's just a forecast. Most forecasts about our economy have been incorrect, basically because far too much emphasis has been put to the negatives and not enough to the positives.

Obviously, if you pour bucketfuls of negatives into a container and mixed it all up vigorously, you should be surprised if the figures all come out as a minus!

Originally Posted by jonbxx

So you have no evidence that it is erroneous or fiction...

Yes, like OB says, all other forecasts have been inaccurate so far... the one you posted falls in to the same realms of falsehoods.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Mick

Yes, like OB says, all other forecasts have been inaccurate so far... the one you posted falls in to the same realms of falsehoods.

How do you know without reading it? Part of the article concentrates on how far out forecasts are and using this as a model for the counterfactual numbers. It is very open in the fact that both the negative and positive predictions were wrong. The article runs a meta analysis of various predictions. Most importantly it uses data from the last 18 months, not predictions of the future. But hey, what does the FT know about money

---------- Post added at 19:22 ---------- Previous post was at 19:17 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's just a forecast. Most forecasts about our economy have been incorrect, basically because far too much emphasis has been put to the negatives and not enough to the positives.

Again, the article is analysis of the past 18 months, not the future. It shows the how the economy has performed and runs three different models to assess what the expected performance would be if we didn’t vote to leave, giving a total of 14 different models. The analysis used models from pro Brexit think tanks as well as establishment numbers.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Brexit is going to make most people in this country worse off, the penny is starting to drop.

Brexit is happening whether one likes it or not Mr K but what is most disturbing is the poisonous hate and incitement we are getting from parts of the media as it seems nothing has been learned or taken on board since the Jo Cox murder.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...threats-brexit

Originally Posted by jonbxx

How do you know without reading it?

Um, because you gave a brief outline of it before you linked to it possibly.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Mick

Um, because you gave a brief outline of it before you linked to it possibly.

So what in my outline was erroneous or fiction?

[Osem]

Originally Posted by denphone

Brexit is happening whether one likes it or not Mr K but what is most disturbing is the poisonous hate and incitement we are getting from parts of the media as it seems nothing has been learned or taken on board since the Jo Cox murder.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...threats-brexit

Or Carl Sargeants's suicide which seems to have been forgotten about already - possibly because he wasn't the victim of a right wing nut case who's an easy target for those who only see 'nastiness' on the right of the spectrum. A brief search will reveal the sort of pressure he was exposed to by some very nasty lefty hypocrites....

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

So what in my outline was erroneous or fiction?

I couldn't see anything that ticked those two boxes. But in the words of Arron Banks, "Facts don’t work, and that’s it. The Remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn’t work. You have got to connect with people emotionally. It’s the Trump success"

Originally Posted by pip08456

The referendum was done properly. The was one thing and one thing only to decide. Remain in or come out of the EU. It was not a blank sheet of paper.

It was a blank sheet of paper in that the definition of what leaving the EU meant was left unclear.
Some interpreted it as leaving the ECJ, Single Market and Customs Union and some on this forum feel strongly that's what it meant. But many in the leave campaigns didn't position it this way. For example, Daniel Hannan stated "Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market."

[Osem]

and Labour, courtesy of the wonderfully talented Diana Aboott can't even manage to be a credible opposition...

Diane Abbott tells Marr Labour has never backed a second referendum, only for Marr to read a quote from her two weeks ago… backing a second referendum

https://order-order.com/2017/12/17/d...nd-referendum/

Pathetic hateful morons.

Originally Posted by Osem

Or Carl Sargeants's suicide which seems to have been forgotten about already - possibly because he wasn't the victim of a right wing nut case who's an easy target for those who only see 'nastiness' on the right of the spectrum. A brief search will reveal the sort of pressure he was exposed to by some very nasty lefty hypocrites....

Denphone didn't mention left/right here. It's a problem across politics.

Jo Cox murder was so prevalent because it was the assassination of a sitting MP.

Carl Sargenant's inquest is still on-going IIRC and it's also complicated by the guidelines the media follows when reporting suicide.

[1andrew1]

More Brexit turkeys coming home to roost or a clever EU negotiating ploy?

Britain cannot have a special deal for the City of London, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator has told the Guardian, dealing a blow to Theresa May’s hopes of securing a bespoke trade agreement with the bloc.
Michel Barnier said it was unavoidable that British banks and financial firms would lose the passports that allow them to trade freely in the EU, as a result of any decision to quit the single market.
“There is no place [for financial services]. There is not a single trade agreement that is open to financial services. It doesn’t exist.” He said the outcome was a consequence of “the red lines that the British have chosen themselves. In leaving the single market, they lose the financial services passport.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...tiator-barnier