Brexit discussion

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

The Eurozone is recovering and they're starting to see healthy economic growth too. It's premature to say all is well of course but it is recovering. Just the other week there GDP growth continued: https://www.theguardian.com/business...ment-inflation. The Deutsche bank crisis has largely passed and been isolated off, they didn't need a bailout in the end, so any risk will probably only be to the bank itself.

Again it's still not great, neither are we, but anyone hoping for a collapse will be disappointed unless a new crisis comes in from somewhere.

All I'll say is the European fund in my ISA has gone up 23% in the last year, 25% the year before that. However my UK fund has flat lined.

[Osem]

The boss of Sainsbury's has said the UK is "probably through the worst" of a weaker pound fuelling food inflation.
After years of deflation, Brexit currency movements meant there had been a "little bit of food price inflation" this year, chief executive Mike Coupe told the BBC.
But he said food prices this Christmas would still be "about the same as they were two years ago".
His comments came as the retailer reported a 9% fall in interim profits.
However, the decline was not as bad as expected and sales rose.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41925517

Still waiting for all that doom...

---------- Post added at 16:35 ---------- Previous post was at 16:30 ----------

Originally Posted by Mick

I think every member State if acted independently, would thrive better than being in a EU bloc, there is only about 10ish net contributors, we are one of them.

Some of the 28 are having their life choked out if them, just look at how many deals we could have, but oh no, we have to conform to EU rules and cannot set our own trade deals.

I don’t think anybody wants Europe as a continent to fail, but I care very little on the corrupt EU.

My wife's family will testify to the effect EU membership and the adoption of the Euro has affected their lives. Yes there has been EU investment but wages are much lower than the UK and prices have gone up considerably to the point where a lot of stuff is more expensive than here. The EU honeymoon days for many of these smaller nations are over I think and they're soon going to realise that there's no such thing as a free lunch. Having broken away from Soviet control they've been sold another form of central control and a lot of them don't like it.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Osem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41925517

Still waiting for all that doom...[COLOR="Silver"]

Mr Sainsburys profits are down by 9%, i'd call that gloomy if you were a shareholder !

---------- Post added at 18:19 ---------- Previous post was at 16:36 ----------

Confirmation on contrasting EU and UK fortunes:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...rket/#comments

European Commission slashes UK GDP growth forecasts but robust eurozone recovery will continue

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Mr Sainsburys profits are down by 9%, i'd call that gloomy if you were a shareholder !

---------- Post added at 18:19 ---------- Previous post was at 16:36 ----------

Confirmation on contrasting EU and UK fortunes:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...rket/#comments

Others have said otherwise. Don't forget, it's only a forcast and not set in stone. Either could go up or down.

Link

[1andrew1]

Not what Theresa May was hoping for in her inbox! An interesting situation to say the least.

Keep Northern Ireland in customs union, says EU
The EU is demanding Britain accept that Northern Ireland may need to remain inside the European customs union and single market after Brexit in order to avoid “a hard border on the island of Ireland”.
The explicit mention of an “all-island” approach by Dublin and Brussels directly contradicts the UK position and will infuriate the Democratic Unionist party, on whose votes Theresa May’s government depends for a parliamentary majority at Westminster.

https://www.ft.com/content/9e11bdcc-...b-322b2cb39656

The Telegraph states it is the source of the leak.

British hopes of opening Brexit trade and transition talks this December were thrown into renewed doubt as it emerged that Ireland is making fresh demands over the Northern Ireland border question, the Telegraph can reveal.
The toughened Irish stance, reflected in a leaked European Commission document obtained by The Telegraph, blindsided British officials at Brexit negotiations in Brussels on Thursday as Ireland piled on pressure in the talks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...order-demands/

[Osem]

... and much of the fall in profits is down to the company's costs associated with the purchase of Argos so nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, Sterling or anything else.

Originally Posted by Osem

... and much of the fall in profits is down to the company's costs associated with the purchase of Argos so nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, Sterling or anything else.

Don't you find it hilarious that when say the other day, I said the FTSE was reaching record levels, which is it was, it quickly got dismissed as, 'it's to do with global trade.'

Sainsbury's profits take a tumble due to competition and as you say and the hardline remainers around these parts, instantly blame Brexit, how convenient, despite them being utterly incorrect, as always.

Originally Posted by Mick

Don't you find it hilarious that when say the other day, I said the FTSE was reaching record levels, which is it was, it quickly got dismissed as, 'it's to do with global trade.'

But a good part of it is. FTSE companies largely earn cash from abroad and therefore the weaker pound strengthens it's value relative to the GBP denominated FTSE. http://www.cityam.com/260961/why-fts...ned-two-charts

Consider a simplified scenario of currency movement. If the exchange rate was $2 to the pound then every $1,000 of revenue would be worth £500. However, if sterling weakened and the exchange rate moved to $1.5 to the pound, then every $1000 of revenue would be worth £667. The outcome is that revenues increased 33% as a result of the fall in sterling.

If you were to measure their value in USD then it's still risen but not as dramatically.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

But a good part of it is. FTSE companies largely earn cash from abroad and therefore the weaker pound strengthens it's value relative to the GBP denominated FTSE. http://www.cityam.com/260961/why-fts...ned-two-charts





If you were to measure their value in USD then it's still risen but not as dramatically.

Iirc the FTSE 250 is a better barometer of what's going on

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Iirc the FTSE 250 is a better barometer of what's going on

Yeah although the UK economy has been stagnant for years now even before Brexit. The US has been doing well for a few years so any exposure there is beneficial.

[Osem]

It's certainly beneficial to our pension schemes, the value of which has been going up after the dramatic falls at the time of the financial crisis. Of course, that's all despite Brexit not because of it.

[1andrew1]

A bit more on that Brexit bombshell:

It will be "essential" for the UK to abide by EU rules on the single market and customs union to avoid a hard border in Ireland, the European Commission has suggested. The details are contained in a paper as part of this week's Brexit talks. It adds the UK should ensure there is no divergence from arrangements which allow for cross-border co-operation.
The leaked paper stops short of saying a hard border can only be avoided by the UK or Northern Ireland staying in the Single Market or Customs Union.
However, it brings the commission closer to the European Parliament position which "presumes" that the UK or Northern Ireland will have to stay in the internal market and customs union.It is also the clearest indication that the commission has accepted the Irish position on Brexit and the border issue.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41936931

Originally Posted by Osem

It's certainly beneficial to our pension schemes, the value of which has been going up after the dramatic falls at the time of the financial crisis. Of course, that's all despite Brexit not because of it.

Yes so long as you have limited exposure to the UK. In the immediate aftermath of Brexit my pension increased in value because of the drop in the pound. Again if the market is in the US then the fall in the pound means those dollars buy more pounds - the GBP value will increase.

It's not all one-way though you can't keep seeing your pension gain because of that because the increased value will be eroded away by the subsequent inflation.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Yes so long as you have limited exposure to the UK. In the immediate aftermath of Brexit my pension increased in value because of the drop in the pound. Again if the market is in the US then the fall in the pound means those dollars buy more pounds - the GBP value will increase.

It's not all one-way though you can't keep seeing your pension gain because of that because the increased value will be eroded away by the subsequent inflation.

That depends on how much inflation there is but yes these things go up and down - just ask those whose pension pots were wiped out a decade ago. Just like me, they know the sad reality only too well.

[1andrew1]

And another bombshell from the Brit himself who wrote Article 50. It can be stopped or paused.

Brexit can be reversed despite Government claims, the man behind Article 50 has said.

Lord Kerr, the architect behind the document claims the Brits are in danger of being “misled" by Government suggestions that quitting the bloc is set in stone.

The fact is that a political decision has been made, in this country, to maintain that there can be no going back. "Actually, the country still has a free choice about whether to proceed. As new facts emerge, people are entitled to take a different view."And there's nothing in Article 50 to stop them. "I think the British people have the right to know this - they should not be misled."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a3687256.html