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Eurozone will collapse...
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Old 26-06-2011, 10:13   #31
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:
Greece's current predicament can be told in numbers, big ones.
The national debt is around 340bn euros. That is one and a half times the value of everything the country produces, its GDP, or 30,000 euro for every Greek citizen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13854962

Just makes you wonder who's at the helm of EU expansion and how on earth they ever considered Greece (and certain other countries) suitable to join the Euro. What's even more worrying is that these same people still seem hell bent on further expanding the EU....

I'm of the firm opinion that any money lent to Greece now will go the same way as the last lot and never be repaid. Of course the Eurocrats can't admit that so they'll go on pretending that these are just loans and it'll all be alright in the end. Something decisive needs to be done to stop the rot but I can't see it happening just yet.
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Old 26-06-2011, 10:25   #32
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Fair enough - I don't see a problem with us discharging our responsibilities via the IMF, however it is quite right that we don't pay a double whammy along with the Eurozone countries. They chose to take part in this batty currency experiment. We had the good sense to stay out of it.
Yes thank god we did have the good sense to stay out of it.
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Old 26-06-2011, 10:29   #33
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Osem View Post
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13854962

Just makes you wonder who's at the helm of EU expansion and how on earth they ever considered Greece (and certain other countries) suitable to join the Euro. What's even more worrying is that these same people still seem hell bent on further expanding the EU....

I'm of the firm opinion that any money lent to Greece now will go the same way as the last lot and never be repaid. Of course the Eurocrats can't admit that so they'll go on pretending that these are just loans and it'll all be alright in the end. Something decisive needs to be done to stop the rot but I can't see it happening just yet.
You're confusing two competing philosophies within the European Union Osem - Integrationist and Expansionist.

The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one.

The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months.

On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed.

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Old 26-06-2011, 10:35   #34
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
You're confusing two competing philosophies within the European Union Osem - Integrationist and Expansionist.

The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one.

The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months.

On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed.

l have to say on this you are talking a lot of sense Chris and we do not generally agree on anything usually.
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Old 26-06-2011, 21:54   #35
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
You're confusing two competing philosophies within the European Union Osem - Integrationist and Expansionist.

The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one.

The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months.

On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed.
Nice explanation. However, all of that implies there's some method in the Euromadness. I'm of the opinion that the EU is a supertanker out of control in a minefield with a cross party committee at the helm...
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Old 27-06-2011, 04:05   #36
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Fair enough - I don't see a problem with us discharging our responsibilities via the IMF, however it is quite right that we don't pay a double whammy along with the Eurozone countries. They chose to take part in this batty currency experiment. We had the good sense to stay out of it.
Where does the IMF get the cash from. Looks like our contribution may have gone up by £9 million to, so much for double whammys, if the Greeks could manage to sort out a decent method of income taxation they might not even need a bail out.

Britain's Treasury has been accused of sneaking through an extra contribution to the International Monetary Fund of £9.2billion.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...oars-22bn.html

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Old 28-06-2011, 23:03   #37
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Oh dear, the Greeks seem to have had enough of the old austerity measures. Presumably they feel a year or two of suffering is enough but given the scale of the problems they face, I think they need to get real and accept that the 'good times' are likely to be over for the foreseeable future. Those engaged in smashing up bits of Athens and rioting need to learn that it isn't going to solve anything, in fact it's likely to make matters even worse.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13935400
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Old 29-06-2011, 09:50   #38
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

What would the rammifications of letting them go to the wall be?
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:13   #39
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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What would the rammifications of letting them go to the wall be?
Very very serious l suspect.
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:30   #40
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Not really, if the Greek economy currency collapsed then they can;t exactly devalue the euro.. It would be a case of major and continued bail-out or dropping the euro and going back to the drachma..

If they dropped the euro then that would only increase the value of the euro for everyone else.. Until the next country has issues...
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:31   #41
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

For us, or just them?
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:33   #42
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

... which is why, prior to the single currency's launch, there were convergence criteria that were supposed to ensure that only economies of broadly similar performance and resilience could join it. The whole point was to prevent the Euro, or a weak economy, or both, being damaged by precisely the sort of train wreck we're seeing in Greece this week.

The single currency is an insane vanity project conceived and perpetrated by people who were prepared to fudge or entirely ignore their own rules just to see it launched. Their blinkered approach may yet be a significant factor in its failure.
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:34   #43
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Kymmy View Post
Not really, if the Greek economy currency collapsed then they can;t exactly devalue the euro.. It would be a case of major and continued bail-out or dropping the euro and going back to the drachma..

If they dropped the euro then that would only increase the value of the euro for everyone else.. Until the next country has issues...
It could be like a domino effect if this continues.
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:42   #44
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
It could be like a domino effect if this continues.
Show's how little you understand the issue..

If one country drops the euro then it'll strengthen the rest.. The "Next country" line was purely due to the continued recession and not the euro..

@Chris, You have to give them credit though that it lasted this long before one of them got into trouble.. There though always was going to be an issue with so many individual markets trying to link themselves to a single currency.. I would have thought that the simple fact that every country within europe will never give up their own governmental powers and totally default to a european central government for all aspects of rule would have meant that the euro could never be anything but an experiment..

I wonder if the european union will give a push to certain countries and force them to drop out and then at least the core countries from which the euro is stabilised will have a chance to continue??
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Old 29-06-2011, 10:52   #45
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Re: Eurozone will collapse...

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Originally Posted by Kymmy View Post
Show's how little you understand the issue..

If one country drops the euro then it'll strengthen the rest.. The "Next country" line was purely due to the continued recession and not the euro..

@Chris, You have to give them credit though that it lasted this long before one of them got into trouble.. There though always was going to be an issue with so many individual markets trying to link themselves to a single currency.. I would have thought that the simple fact that every country within europe will never give up their own governmental powers and totally default to a european central government for all aspects of rule would have meant that the euro could never be anything but an experiment..

I wonder if the european union will give a push to certain countries and force them to drop out and then at least the core countries from which the euro is stabilised will have a chance to continue??
I find it difficult to give credit to people who experiment on such a scale as to put the economy of an entire country at risk ... at the end of the day, the federalist ideologues in Brussels aren't going to lose their plush offices and chauffeur-driven cars. The ordinary people of Greece, on the other hand, are now royally shafted whichever way the house of cards that is the Euro decides to fall.

The logical argument for tax and economic policy convergence within the Eurozone is of course irresistible. As I said earlier, the Dollar only works across the USA because there's a federal government sitting above the individual state governments, running a federal economic policy which includes massive transfers of wealth from the states that make money (like California) to those that don't (like Alaska).

I'm not sure, however, that even France or Germany are quite ready to embrace such a level of harmonization, which I think means either that a 12-member Euro is going to continue to lurch from one crisis to another, or else a smaller Eurozone will have to be created, comprised of those economies that genuinely can cope with it (i.e. only those that should have qualified to be in it in the first place).
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