June 8th General Election

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't understand how YouGov's poll can be right? If it is then we really don't know everything about how voters will behave. Part of Labour's resurgence seems to be Tory missteps and the return to two party politics but even so?

Financial Times
What YouGov produced is not a poll in itself, but a model based on polling data, a projection of how seats would fall based on current voting projections, rather than a forecast of what will happen on election day.
A conventional poll attempts to create a representative sample of how the country intends to vote. By contrast, the YouGov model combines survey data from the last election, census data and current polling to try to identify types of voters, assess their number, work out how likely they are to vote and who they intend to vote for...
Where the technique can still go awry — as traditional methods can — is when the underlying data has what statisticians call “in cell” bias. For example — and without knowing what the precise details of the YouGov model are — if there are large numbers of people in the sample who are political junkies, but this is not a category in the model, then the results will be skewed.

https://www.ft.com/content/39b6628c-...7-59b4dd6296b8

[Dave42]

the latest one I post in the tweet I posted was a poll not new model

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Dave42

the latest one I post in the tweet I posted was a poll not new model

Maybe Brexiters are worrying that if they vote Conservative, during the Brexit negotiations Theresa May will do another u-turn and take us into the Eurozone!

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by denphone

If we patiently wait enough for it we might actually get a politician who actually tells the truth in time but don't count on it.

Possibly Den but they'd never get elected

Caroline Lucas seems the most honest front line politician atm to me.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Possibly Den but they'd never get elected

Caroline Lucas seems the most honest front line politician atm to me.

Hey Mr K, are you half of the CF Green vote?

Cheers

Dave

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Dave42

Matthew Goodwin‏ @GoodwinMJ 7m
7 minutes ago


More
New Yougov poll (not model)
Con 42
Lab 39
LD 7
Ukip 4
Others 8

Con lead = 3 pts

Whether this is true really remains to be seen but its certainly could be squeaky bum time on the Conservatives bench leading up to June the 8th,

---------- Post added at 06:06 ---------- Previous post was at 06:02 ----------

Originally Posted by Dave42

yes think this is happening ukip just about done now like lib dems

Indeed UKIP are finished but the key is how much of their former vote will splinter off to the Conservatives and Labour and personally l think it will be the Ukippers in the south going mostly to the Tories and quite a few in the north reverting back to Labour.

---------- Post added at 06:08 ---------- Previous post was at 06:06 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Maybe Brexiters are worrying that if they vote Conservative, during the Brexit negotiations Theresa May will do another u-turn and take us into the Eurozone!

Forever the optimist l see Andrew.

---------- Post added at 06:09 ---------- Previous post was at 06:08 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

Possibly Den but they'd never get elected

Caroline Lucas seems the most honest front line politician atm to me.

Perhaps we need some of the Cable Forum members to become politicians as some of them are as honest as the day is long Mr K.

---------- Post added at 06:12 ---------- Previous post was at 06:09 ----------

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

Hey Mr K, are you half of the CF Green vote?

Cheers

Dave

l am sure l saw a picture of him with his flower power shirt a while back.

[Gary L]

What the grey wobbly woman needs to do now is... let all the media focus on her not attending for being weak and scared for a few days. and then at the next one she need to make a grand big entrance with helicopters hovering overhead and black limos and such. a big marching band with the Union Jack flying high!

do a Donald Trump!
do the American style election!
sure winner!

it's what they do when they announce the worst and then do a U-turn or reduce the actual figure they came up with first so it looks brilliant now.
it's the way the Cons work.

Originally Posted by Mr K

Caroline Lucas seems the most honest front line politician atm to me.

Knowing you don't stand a chance of winning power will do that.

[Jimmy-J]

May will win this election, hands down. It'll be a complete whitewash. You'll see.

Originally Posted by Gary L

What the grey wobbly woman needs to do now is... let all the media focus on her not attending for being weak and scared for a few days. and then at the next one she need to make a grand big entrance with helicopters hovering overhead and black limos and such. a big marching band with the Union Jack flying high!

do a Donald Trump!
do the American style election!
sure winner!

it's what they do when they announce the worst and then do a U-turn or reduce the actual figure they came up with first so it looks brilliant now.
it's the way the Cons work.

I'd accept all that more than a set of terrorist sympathisers, who have lots and lots of money trees to pay for all these uncosted promises.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

Hey Mr K, are you half of the CF Green vote?

Cheers

Dave

No, if we had PR then it would be an option. Unfortunately I have to vote tactically for a party I don't really support such is our pathetic electoral system. Voting for a 3rd or 4th placed candidate means your vote is pointless and just helps the incumbent.

[tweetiepooh]

PR systems suck. I don't want to vote for a party I want to vote for a representative.

I still think it would be fun if lots of independents get elected or a real mixed bag. Probably not a good idea at this time though.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

PR systems suck. I don't want to vote for a party I want to vote for a representative.
.

There's variations on PR that would allow you to do that aswell. Some may remember the PR referendum​ after the 2010 election. Public opinion was in favourite of change at the start of the campaign, but the 2 main parties and their press friends got to work on us for a month, and we did as we were told and maintained the status quo. If we want more people to vote they must know their vote counts no matter what constituency they're in.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

PR systems suck. I don't want to vote for a party I want to vote for a representative.

I still think it would be fun if lots of independents get elected or a real mixed bag. Probably not a good idea at this time though.

But your MP voted to Remain but his party is backing a hard Brexit:

http://www.stevebrine.com/issues/eu-referendum

Where is the value add of voting for a representative? At least voting for a party, you get a better match for your values and wishes ..

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mick

I'd accept all that more than a set of terrorist sympathisers, who have lots and lots of money trees to pay for all these uncosted promises.

Have the tories released detailed costings yet? Don't suppose it matters if they haven't because they can always resort to the old favourite of

releasing very tight spending plans before elections but spending and taxing more after winning them

who needs a money tree when you can just mug of the public again and again, labour might be shambolic but at least their honest, well not as dishonest!


https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...spending-plans