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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 20-03-2017, 12:10   #2776
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Scotland can keep the pound, pegged to our pound, but they can't force us into a Currency Union.
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Old 20-03-2017, 12:14   #2777
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

The lack of understanding of what the currency issue actually is, is shocking, even amongst Nats who presume to stand up and lecture the rest of us about it.

A currency is a means of evaluating and dividing up the total wealth of an economic area, and permitting trade within that area. One Pound Sterling has no intrinsic value. Its value is a reflection of the health of the economy within which it is the accepted currency.

A currency can only function properly if it is managed as part of the overall management of that economic area. That's why the US Dollar works and the Euro has been on the brink of collapse for the last 5 years. There is a single overarching financial authority in the US and there is a federal government which collects and redistributes the majority of tax income. That's the only reason Idaho can remain in currency union with California. The reverse - extremely limited central control and no means of wealth transfer via federal tax - is the reason Germany and Greece are straining at opposite ends of the Euro area.

Eventually, there will have to be a federal economic policy and fiscal transfers to keep the Euro working. Exactly the same level of integration would be required to keep a currency union between England and Scotland working. Of course, such a system already exists between England and Scotland; both Crowns and Parliaments were united, there is one government and wealth is transferred wherever it is needed.

---------- Post added at 11:14 ---------- Previous post was at 11:10 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Scotland can keep the pound, pegged to our pound, but they can't force us into a Currency Union.
Yup. Scottish banks holding an equal value of Pound Sterling in order to guarantee the value of Pound Scots, which just about works until you start to wonder where the money is going to come from to finance mortgages, business loans and the rest.

All the wealth creation will be in England. All the banks would be English banks with offices in Scotland, regulated by English law and operating according to the interests of head offices in London. No money markets or indigenous financial services institutions in Edinburgh whatsoever. What a glorious state of affairs to aspire to.
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Old 20-03-2017, 13:17   #2778
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
She also said the referendum was a once in a lifetime event, at the same time as David Cameron promised an EU referendum if he won the 2015 general election.

Please don't be taken in by SNP spin. Nothing has occurred since the 2014 referendum that Scottish voters were unaware of. Brexit is a handy pretext. If it had not been that, it would have been something else.
Ahh but did she specify whose lifetime?...

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Old 20-03-2017, 14:16   #2779
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
The lack of understanding of what the currency issue actually is, is shocking, even amongst Nats who presume to stand up and lecture the rest of us about it.

A currency is a means of evaluating and dividing up the total wealth of an economic area, and permitting trade within that area. One Pound Sterling has no intrinsic value. Its value is a reflection of the health of the economy within which it is the accepted currency.

A currency can only function properly if it is managed as part of the overall management of that economic area. That's why the US Dollar works and the Euro has been on the brink of collapse for the last 5 years. There is a single overarching financial authority in the US and there is a federal government which collects and redistributes the majority of tax income. That's the only reason Idaho can remain in currency union with California. The reverse - extremely limited central control and no means of wealth transfer via federal tax - is the reason Germany and Greece are straining at opposite ends of the Euro area.

Eventually, there will have to be a federal economic policy and fiscal transfers to keep the Euro working. Exactly the same level of integration would be required to keep a currency union between England and Scotland working. Of course, such a system already exists between England and Scotland; both Crowns and Parliaments were united, there is one government and wealth is transferred wherever it is needed.

---------- Post added at 11:14 ---------- Previous post was at 11:10 ----------



Yup. Scottish banks holding an equal value of Pound Sterling in order to guarantee the value of Pound Scots, which just about works until you start to wonder where the money is going to come from to finance mortgages, business loans and the rest.

All the wealth creation will be in England. All the banks would be English banks with offices in Scotland, regulated by English law and operating according to the interests of head offices in London. No money markets or indigenous financial services institutions in Edinburgh whatsoever. What a glorious state of affairs to aspire to.
Some countries like Montenegro use the Euro but are not members of the Eurozone whilst many countries peg their currency to other currencies, primarily the Euro and Dollar.
In addition, Ireland used to have the same shared currency as the UK until 1978 but was fully independent.
So, I'm not sure it's as clear-cut as the text books may suggest.

Anyway, it looks as if the referenndum timing may be pushed back a bit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-independence/
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Old 20-03-2017, 14:27   #2780
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
Some countries like Montenegro use the Euro but are not members of the Eurozone whilst many countries peg their currency to other currencies, primarily the Euro and Dollar.
In addition, Ireland used to have the same shared currency as the UK until 1978 but was fully independent.
So, I'm not sure it's as clear-cut as the text books may suggest.

Anyway, it looks as if the referenndum timing may be pushed back a bit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-independence/
I think you may need to re-read my post.

What the SNP demanded in 2014 - a full Sterling currency union - will not happen. Not ever. Full currency union requires a common fiscal and monetary policy to be secure. The Euro does not have one and is highly insecure. The US Dollar does have one, is utterly stable and is the world's reserve currency. The UK Treasury argued in 2014 - quite reasonably - that full currency union, complete with unified fiscal and monetary policy, is exactly what Scotland has right now, and to detach the government of Scotland from that of the rest of the UK would unavoidably end that state of affairs. You can't have a common fiscal and monetary policy between two governments which also claim both to be sovereign over their own affairs. It is a contradiction.

There is nothing to stop a third party country from using a currency that is not its own, either by directly circulating foreign banknotes, or else holding a supply of foreign notes equivalent to the value of domestic promissory notes it circulates within its own territory. For small, stagnant economies this can work fine. They lose some flexibility and dynamism but they save a lot of time and money because they don't have to worry about managing a currency for themselves.

You mentioned Ireland - they didn't quite do as you're suggesting. They hoarded a range of foreign currencies as backing for Pound Irish, buying and selling as necessary to ensure that the Punt retained parity with Pound Sterling. This approach is called a "currency board" and is widely used in many of the world's smaller economies.

The problem with any of the above from a Scottish perspective is that, by its rhetoric, the SNP doesn't see an independent Scotland as one of the world's small economies. In 2014 they talked it up endlessly. Their economic ambitions simply weren't in line with any achievable solution to the currency problem.
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Old 20-03-2017, 14:39   #2781
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Brexit is certainly not a 'little thing'. It's massive and Scotland didn't vote for it.

If you believe in democracy what's wrong with letting them have a vote? They might well vote to remain inspite of Brexit. Only reason to object, is if you thing they might vote a way you don't want. However it's up to the Scottish people, not us. They voted to Remain and they voted for the SNP.
It was a UK vote and the UK decided to abandon this bureaucratic nightmare of an institution. Just how far do you take this argument? Should one hamlet that voted to remain be allowed to remain? Of course not. You always look at the whole vote, not just parts of it - that's how it works.

Scotland has devolved powers that are quite generous, but that country should not be permitted to lord it over the rest of us and hold us to ransom every time something happens that they don't like.

This whole thing is both the result of an SNP obsession and the need to divert attention from just how badly they are running things in Scotland. An independent Scotland governed by the left wing SNP would be an absolute disaster for that country. Their policies would create more unemployment and investors would be discouraged from doing business in Scotland. I trust they don't expect what remains of the UK to bail them out if they get their way and then fall flat on their faces. The leadership of the SNP are probably working out their 'entitlement' to our foreign aid budget as we speak. The sooner we reduce funding in that department, the better!

If the Scots get taken in by the SNP's arguments, they will soon encounter austerity, the like of which has not been visited on those shores in modern times. Fortunately, I think most Scots are much too canny to fall for the fairy tales spouted by Sturgeon, Salmond and their fanatical friends.
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Old 20-03-2017, 14:51   #2782
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
I think you may need to re-read my post.

What the SNP demanded in 2014 - a full Sterling currency union - will not happen. Not ever. Full currency union requires a common fiscal and monetary policy to be secure. The Euro does not have one and is highly insecure. The US Dollar does have one, is utterly stable and is the world's reserve currency. The UK Treasury argued in 2014 - quite reasonably - that full currency union, complete with unified fiscal and monetary policy, is exactly what Scotland has right now, and to detach the government of Scotland from that of the rest of the UK would unavoidably end that state of affairs. You can't have a common fiscal and monetary policy between two governments which also claim both to be sovereign over their own affairs. It is a contradiction.

There is nothing to stop a third party country from using a currency that is not its own, either by directly circulating foreign banknotes, or else holding a supply of foreign notes equivalent to the value of domestic promissory notes it circulates within its own territory. For small, stagnant economies this can work fine. They lose some flexibility and dynamism but they save a lot of time and money because they don't have to worry about managing a currency for themselves.

You mentioned Ireland - they didn't quite do as you're suggesting. They hoarded a range of foreign currencies as backing for Pound Irish, buying and selling as necessary to ensure that the Punt retained parity with Pound Sterling. This approach is called a "currency board" and is widely used in many of the world's smaller economies.

The problem with any of the above from a Scottish perspective is that, by its rhetoric, the SNP doesn't see an independent Scotland as one of the world's small economies. In 2014 they talked it up endlessly. Their economic ambitions simply weren't in line with any achievable solution to the currency problem.
Thanks for your comprehensive reply. I think if Scotland voted leave it would have to modify its currency ambitions but I doubt the SNP wants to raise the matter at this stage; ideally keep it in the long grass until after any vote.

In what way is the Euro insecure? People have been forecasting its demise since it was introduced in 1999. Surely it is more stable than Sterling which covers just one economy as it covers 19 countries including the largest EU economies.
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Old 20-03-2017, 14:56   #2783
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post

In what way is the Euro insecure?
I can't believe you said that, Andrew! That made my day!
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:02   #2784
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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I can't believe you said that, Andrew! That made my day!
My pleasure. I always like to take an evidence-based approach rather than a Project Original Fear one. If Chris proves me wrong I'm happy to have learnt something.
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:23   #2785
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Ahh but did she specify whose lifetime?...

lifetime of a rat presumably,certainly something that doesn't live very long.
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:26   #2786
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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My pleasure. I always like to take an evidence-based approach rather than a Project Original Fear one. If Chris proves me wrong I'm happy to have learnt something.
I wasn't agreeing with you, old chap! I just thought it was hilarious to ask so innocently how anyone could think the euro wasn't secure.

I'm still not sure if you were joking. I hope you were!
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:35   #2787
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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I wasn't agreeing with you, old chap! I just thought it was hilarious to ask so innocently how anyone could think the euro wasn't secure.

I'm still not sure if you were joking. I hope you were!
Didn't you know, there is no evidence of financial problems/uncertainties in Europe/the Eurozone? That's why we should have stayed in...
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Last edited by Osem; 20-03-2017 at 15:38.
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:38   #2788
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Didn't you know, there are no financial problems/uncertainties in Europe/the Eurozone? That's why we should have stayed in...
...and Greece's predicament is just fake news...
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:40   #2789
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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...and Greece's predicament is just fake news...
Yup, it's just not happening you know. It's all scaremongering by little Englanders.
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Old 20-03-2017, 15:53   #2790
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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My pleasure. I always like to take an evidence-based approach rather than a Project Original Fear one. If Chris proves me wrong I'm happy to have learnt something.
Not meaning to sidestep the question but it has been addressed at length in the Eurozone Colapse thread, many times over.

In essence, without a system of federal tax and redistribution, the Eurozone will always inevitably end up in the situation it is now in, with countries like Greece, Italy and Ireland coming perilously close to bankruptcy while massive amounts of currency accumulate in more efficient states like Germany. Bailouts have followed protracted negotiation and brinkmanship whereas in a properly functioning diverse currency zone, such as the USA, it is automatic.
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