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Old 14-09-2017, 10:52   #46
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Re: Brexit discussion

For those of you who thought voting "remain" was for the status quo, here's Juncker's latest booze fuelled vision:

Quote:
He signalled Brussels should seize greater control over corporation tax and VAT across the bloc, create a European ‘FBI’ and an EU Army by 2025.

The bureaucrat added that he wanted more member states should adopt the Euro and the passport-free ‘Schengen’ zone expanded to include Romania and Bulgaria.

He spoke of his desire for the EU to expand beyond 27 countries post-Brexit by welcoming in western Balkan states such as Serbia.

And while saying the door to Turkey joining the EU was closed “for the foreseeable future” he said there would “always be an outstretched hand” to the Turkish people.

He added it was time to combine the roles of the President of the Commission – essentially the EU’s civil service – and the President of the EU Council – the body of the leaders of each member state.
Source
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Last edited by heero_yuy; 14-09-2017 at 10:53. Reason: Link added
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Old 14-09-2017, 11:20   #47
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Re: Brexit discussion

It was for the status quo, at least in the short term. The above we either had opt-outs on, a veto, or would've triggered a referendum here if they were enacted. Every EU member state has committed to joining the Euro besides those with opt-outs, and those can't be circumvented. Schengen much the same.

Without our influence, votes and veto the EU can take a different path if it so chooses.

It's worth remembering that, contrary to the opinions of some, Juncker can say whatever he pleases as far as his vision of the EU goes but he doesn't have the power to implement it. He doesn't get to decide what actually happens, that's down to the Council of Ministers, the elected heads of state of each member state, and the EU Parliament.

It's fair to say, though, that Juncker's comments don't set out whatever the future of the UK within the EU would've been.

EDIT: If I remember at some point I'll find an article that focuses on what he said and its ramifications seriously. The article linked made me feel dumber having read it.

Last edited by Ignitionnet; 14-09-2017 at 11:25.
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Old 14-09-2017, 11:24   #48
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing View Post
Where's Nick Clegg to tell us again that an EU army is a dangerous fantasy, everything Juncker said today shows exactly why brexit is happening and also shows the EU hasn't learnt a damn thing just gone back to their usual expantionist federal head in the sand approach.
People like Clegg and Blair will say and promise anything in order to get their way - that's the sort of democracy they believe in. I really can't understand how anyone can deny where the EU is heading, but of course these people are only concerned with making it a 'fait accompli'. They'll lie and spin until they get their way and then it'll be too late for us to do anything about it. How much more evidence do people need to accept that this is their agenda? There's no evidence at all that they've actually learned anything from what's happened in the EU, the only answer they have to anything is 'more of the same'. If anyone wanted a perfect example of unerring political dogma and intransigence I'd say the EU is it.
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Last edited by Osem; 14-09-2017 at 12:28.
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Old 14-09-2017, 11:30   #49
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Re: Brexit discussion

Meanwhile, back in the real world, away from 'hatred' of individuals, John Lewis profits have fallen 50% and are blaming the uncertainty caused by Brexit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41264277
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Old 14-09-2017, 11:37   #50
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by Mr K View Post
Meanwhile, back in the real world, away from 'hatred' of individuals, John Lewis profits have fallen 50% and are blaming the uncertainty caused by Brexit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41264277
No doubt other companies in the coming months will be reporting reduced profits as well with the impact of the weaker pound . higher inflation and political uncertainty.
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Old 14-09-2017, 11:46   #51
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
No doubt other companies in the coming months will be reporting reduced profits as well with the impact of the weaker pound . higher inflation and political uncertainty.
Yeah indeed. It was inevitable.
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Old 14-09-2017, 11:48   #52
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Re: Brexit discussion

This is a bit concerning too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7945956.html
Quote:
But earlier this year David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, admitted no impact assessment had been undertaken by the current administration, probing the potential effects to the economy of a “no deal” scenario.
We keep threatening to walk away if we don't get what we want like a spoilt child. But it turns out we don't have a plan if there's no deal ! Bit of an empty threat ! Bit like when the Govt. had no plan if we voted for Brexit.
Our negotiators - headless chickens, running about, giving interviews about how brilliantly everything is going and achieving nothing..... Meanwhile the EU carries on as usual, economies growing, while time runs out for us.
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:00   #53
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet View Post
[url]
Actually let me ask peeps here - if we go WTO, which it looks like we will, the EU's tariffs kick in on our exports to them. What would people have us do in response?
Although I studied economics at school I am far removed from being an economist. Statistics can be used to "prove" any POV without context. Once context is entered into the equation conclusions and forecasts tend to change.

Remainers keep harping on about the service industry and how vital it is to the UK economy. I do not deny there's money to be made there but now let's put it into context.

Goods and services exports to the EU only account to 12-15% of the UK's export market. Even that figure is skewed by any exports via ports such as Rotterdam which then become part of EU export figures not the UK's.

Quote:
The £240 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth about 12% of the value of the British economy in 2016. It’s been at around 12-15% over the past decade.
As to any tariffs the EU imposes if we go WTO agreements I would do nothing in response.

There is a fallacy that tariffs cost businesses billions, they don't. There is only one person who pays the tariff and that is the end consumer.

If the goods and services that this country exports are superior to any other product then the end user will pay for them, this will push innovation and development in this country to be better than anyone else.

As regards a "tit for tat" response to tariffs and the need to do nothing, this can only lead to reduced prices for the consumer.

See, I can put forward a reasoned contribution to a debate.

Before I forget, the LINK where I got the total export figures from.
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:16   #54
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 View Post
Goods and services exports to the EU only account to 12-15% of the UK's export market. Even that figure is skewed by any exports via ports such as Rotterdam which then become part of EU export figures not the UK's.

Before I forget, the LINK where I got the total export figures from.
I'd have another look at those figures. They account for 12-15% of the UK economy, not UK exports. The first line of the article you linked indicates 44% of exports, with the 'Rotterdam effect' accounting for about 2% of that 44%.
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:17   #55
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Re: Brexit discussion

I may be missing something but any fall in profits (c. £30m) due to Brexit/Sterling suffered by John Lewis is dwarfed by the £56m restructuring charge isn't it. What's the actual cost to JLP of the fall in Sterling since the Brexit vote? Unless we know that figure we can't judge what negative effect there's actually been.
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:28   #56
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Re: Brexit discussion

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
l never said all politicians are liars but a fair few many are and as for CF well most members are very nice apart from a few members.
you said 'most'...
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:30   #57
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Re: Brexit discussion

I'm sure none of us have lived our lives entirely 'lie' free. Some are just a lot more practiced at it than others.
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:46   #58
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet View Post
I'd have another look at those figures. They account for 12-15% of the UK economy, not UK exports. The first line of the article you linked indicates 44% of exports, with the 'Rotterdam effect' accounting for about 2% of that 44%.
My bad and I grant you that correction, so that means the total effect to UK economy if we left with no trade agreement would be a maximum of 12-15%.

However, WTO rules would kick in and would to some extent reduce that figure as would trade under WTO with the rest of the world until trade agreements were finalised. This (potentially) could mean a boom in the UK economy.

Not so much of the "Doom and Gloom" scenario now is there?

Is there nothing else in my post you disagree with?
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Old 14-09-2017, 12:55   #59
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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:
Leave campaigner Sir James Dyson expects the UK to leave the EU with no deal, and trade to default to World Trade Organization rules and tariffs.
Sir James, who founded the engineering firm Dyson, told the BBC such an arrangement would "hurt the Europeans more than the British".
Brexit uncertainty is an opportunity for firms to forge links with fast-growing economies, Sir James said.
However, John Lewis has said Brexit uncertainty was hitting the UK economy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41265718

Brexit uncertainty is hitting all sorts of things here and in the EU, you wouldn't think that latter though. We rarely hear about the worries of or the effects on EU businesses but I don't see that changing. Brexit uncertainty won't last forever however. When the deal is done in whatever form it takes, there'll be no more. At that point we'll start hearing more about EU uncertainty and all the huge problems they're going to be grappling with whilst we get on with dealing with all the realities of an uncertain world.
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Last edited by Osem; 14-09-2017 at 13:00.
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Old 14-09-2017, 13:01   #60
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Re: Brexit discussion

At this point I think it goes without saying that no agreement will be made in time with regards to a Brexit deal.
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