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Originally Posted by jfman
Although I naturally disagree I will say I admire your blind optimism.
At the start it was supposed to be American tech blowing away Ruskies for fun. Now it’s the plucky Ukrainians with their pea shooters ready to outwit a superpower with some NATO training from officers who have never seen combat without clear air superiority and hoping for F-16s due last winter.
I’d wager that American assistance - financial, intelligence or weapons would far outweigh what Zelensky can gather in his begging bowl from Baltic states happy to spill Ukrainian blood keeping the Russian border in the distance.
I’d not underestimate the American ability to put the genie back in the bottle either if other priorities took over like Israel or Taiwan.  |
At the start, America seemed willing to do exactly that. It was only when the plucky Ukrainians defeated the attempted invasion of the north and the Russian march on Kyiv that the escalation managers got nervous. The current White House wants Russia to fail to conquer Ukraine but it does not want Russia to suffer a crushing defeat. So even with the money Congress has just approved, there are limits on what Biden will do to support Ukraine.
As for assistance from outside the US; assistance from Europe is on a par with, and in some areas outstrips, US support. It isn’t just the Balts, and Macron really does seem to see this now as a chance for France to show its defence/industrial prowess and strategic leadership, rather than its subtle diplomatic skills. One of the reasons the escalation managers in Washington are not going to get what they want in the long run is that they have given Europe and Ukraine reasons not to rely on the US too heavily. The White House’s patently absurd objection to Ukraine bombing Russian oil infrastructure rings hollow because White House policies have undermined their influence over Ukraine to the extent that Ukraine doesn’t feel inclined to listen.