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1andrew1 · 07-12-2016, 00:12

I thought these were interesting reader's comments on the forthcoming negotiations worth sharing on this forum as it gives an interesting perspective.

Originally posted by The Pouca in FT.com on 6/12/2016

"The core of any Brexit deal is getting to 27 yeses - and any sensible discussion has to start from that standpoint - what can the UK seek that the other 27 EU member states will agree to? However, even in the pro-EU pages of the FT and The Guardian this is almost never discussed, it's all about the UK's wants and needs.

One thing that pretty well no one grasps is how big a deal psychologically and politically Freedom of Movement is for Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and even Germany. Memories in the UK may be short, but before the Berlin Wall fell citizens of those countries did not enjoy FoM, they were effectively trapped inside the Eastern Bloc. For them a huge aspect of freedom and of joining the EU is FoM - and the UK's objection is not helped by the xenophobia and outright racism that was displayed in the referendum campaign and afterwards, the attacks on Eastern Europeans in the street. So up front you have ten member states that regard FoM as a very big deal - and inter alia it's fair to say that the same view is taken by the Spanish, Italians, Portuguese, Greeks, Irish, etc. That is a big problem because refusing FoM means that there are already 10-15 No votes that can be counted.

Next, you have passporting. Again I think there is a failure to grasp why passporting into the Eurozone is a serious issue. Understand the UK is in an unusual position for any country - it has the untrammelled right now to sell financial products into what is in effect another economy, impacting that economy and its central banks (the ECB's) exposure, etc. The US does not allow foreign banks to do that into the US dollar zone. The UK's exceptional circumstances are as a result of being in the EU - and the 4 freedoms, including two key ones freedom to provide services and freedom of capital - but it is a historical accident - because those 4 primary freedoms were part of the original EEC and predated the Euro and the ECB. The UK has stayed out of the Euro, to a large degree carping hostilely from the sidelines. For any currency union to allow the sort of access that the UK now has would be pretty astonishing - so it is hardly surprising that many countries in the Eurozone cannot see this continuing. The especially cannot see it continuing if the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the European Court of Justice lack the authority to enforce rules on the City.

Next you have goods and to that must be added paying into the EU budget. A little history here might be useful. When Ireland entered the EU in 1973 it led to the almost immediate demise of car manufacturing in Ireland and a host of other industries as they faced competition from UK and EU manufacturers that operated on a much large scale, as well as the loss of tariffs on goods which entered the Irish market via importation into the EEC at Felixstowe or Rotterdam - while UK and EU industry gained. Those were tough years for Ireland initially - but the EEC (later EC and then EU) in effect compensated the Irish through the regional and structural funds. Ireland is now a net contributor to the EU budget, and has been for several years. Pretty well all western European countries are now new contributors, and most of that money goes east - and compensates the former eastern European countries for allowing the rest of the EU access to their markets for goods and services. Now the UK wants that access (which hurts Eastern European industry, employment and tax base) for free - or to put it another way, they want the rest of western Europe to pay the UK's club dues - while keeping the market access.

Then you have a raft of EU programs, Erasmus, Horizon 2020, Galileo, where a disproportionate share of expenditures were made in the UK and where UK scientists and institutions were allowed leading roles - again, why should this continue?

I could go on, but the point remains - few UK commentators are looking at this from the perspective of the EU 27, and when they do they are rather poisonous in their analysis, projecting venality (it's all about the money), pusillanimity and vindictiveness onto the motives of the EU 27. They also forget - all of the things I'm describing the UK voted to throw in the rubbish bin, declared valueless - all are in the gift of the EU 27, should they choose to return them. These are not things the UK gets to keep after the divorce unless the EU 27 agree, each and every one."
Source:
Subscribers https://www.ft.com/content/64ec9a92-...5d080#comments
Non-subscribers Google "This is what ‘red, white and blue’ Brexit will look like"

07-12-2016, 00:12	#3069
1andrew1 cf.mega poster Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 14,231	Re: Post-Brexit Thread I thought these were interesting reader's comments on the forthcoming negotiations worth sharing on this forum as it gives an interesting perspective. Originally posted by The Pouca in FT.com on 6/12/2016 "The core of any Brexit deal is getting to 27 yeses - and any sensible discussion has to start from that standpoint - what can the UK seek that the other 27 EU member states will agree to? However, even in the pro-EU pages of the FT and The Guardian this is almost never discussed, it's all about the UK's wants and needs. One thing that pretty well no one grasps is how big a deal psychologically and politically Freedom of Movement is for Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and even Germany. Memories in the UK may be short, but before the Berlin Wall fell citizens of those countries did not enjoy FoM, they were effectively trapped inside the Eastern Bloc. For them a huge aspect of freedom and of joining the EU is FoM - and the UK's objection is not helped by the xenophobia and outright racism that was displayed in the referendum campaign and afterwards, the attacks on Eastern Europeans in the street. So up front you have ten member states that regard FoM as a very big deal - and inter alia it's fair to say that the same view is taken by the Spanish, Italians, Portuguese, Greeks, Irish, etc. That is a big problem because refusing FoM means that there are already 10-15 No votes that can be counted. Next, you have passporting. Again I think there is a failure to grasp why passporting into the Eurozone is a serious issue. Understand the UK is in an unusual position for any country - it has the untrammelled right now to sell financial products into what is in effect another economy, impacting that economy and its central banks (the ECB's) exposure, etc. The US does not allow foreign banks to do that into the US dollar zone. The UK's exceptional circumstances are as a result of being in the EU - and the 4 freedoms, including two key ones freedom to provide services and freedom of capital - but it is a historical accident - because those 4 primary freedoms were part of the original EEC and predated the Euro and the ECB. The UK has stayed out of the Euro, to a large degree carping hostilely from the sidelines. For any currency union to allow the sort of access that the UK now has would be pretty astonishing - so it is hardly surprising that many countries in the Eurozone cannot see this continuing. The especially cannot see it continuing if the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the European Court of Justice lack the authority to enforce rules on the City. Next you have goods and to that must be added paying into the EU budget. A little history here might be useful. When Ireland entered the EU in 1973 it led to the almost immediate demise of car manufacturing in Ireland and a host of other industries as they faced competition from UK and EU manufacturers that operated on a much large scale, as well as the loss of tariffs on goods which entered the Irish market via importation into the EEC at Felixstowe or Rotterdam - while UK and EU industry gained. Those were tough years for Ireland initially - but the EEC (later EC and then EU) in effect compensated the Irish through the regional and structural funds. Ireland is now a net contributor to the EU budget, and has been for several years. Pretty well all western European countries are now new contributors, and most of that money goes east - and compensates the former eastern European countries for allowing the rest of the EU access to their markets for goods and services. Now the UK wants that access (which hurts Eastern European industry, employment and tax base) for free - or to put it another way, they want the rest of western Europe to pay the UK's club dues - while keeping the market access. Then you have a raft of EU programs, Erasmus, Horizon 2020, Galileo, where a disproportionate share of expenditures were made in the UK and where UK scientists and institutions were allowed leading roles - again, why should this continue? I could go on, but the point remains - few UK commentators are looking at this from the perspective of the EU 27, and when they do they are rather poisonous in their analysis, projecting venality (it's all about the money), pusillanimity and vindictiveness onto the motives of the EU 27. They also forget - all of the things I'm describing the UK voted to throw in the rubbish bin, declared valueless - all are in the gift of the EU 27, should they choose to return them. These are not things the UK gets to keep after the divorce unless the EU 27 agree, each and every one." Source: Subscribers https://www.ft.com/content/64ec9a92-...5d080#comments Non-subscribers Google "This is what ‘red, white and blue’ Brexit will look like"