Originally Posted by OLD BOY
I have concluded that there is clearly never going to be a consensus on this issue and therefore perhaps a quick summary of this thread is in order.
The original proposition was that with changing viewing habits and the increasing number of user friendly video streaming services, the current trend would ultimately lead to the closure of the existing commercial TV companies.
The premise was based on the fact that programmes delivered by way of streaming services were available on demand 24/7, many of them without interruptions from commercials and of course unconstrained by inflexible schedules. So programmes that are an hour long on conventional commercial TV take only 45 minutes of so to watch on SVOD, and telly addicts are able to squeeze in another hour long programme every 4 hours. As the younger generation become adults and settle down into family life, they will expect to be able to choose and watch their shows when they want to and watch them without interruption. This behaviour has already commenced, and it will rub off on older generations with time. Judging by our experience with the advent of the internet, I would say this process will take up to a decade to embrace the vast majority of the population.
Clearly, watching TV by conventional methods will decline with time, and there will come a crunch point beyond which commercial broadcast linear channels will not be able to turn a profit. This has led me to conclude that these channels will start to disappear in the next decade as more streaming services become available.
Although I have said all along that streaming/on demand services will take over, I do concede that the main players in broadcast TV may find ways of keeping their channels on air, but to do so they will need to find other income streams. For example, either individually or collectively, the main terrestrial channels may invest in their own streaming service like Netflix, supported by subscriptions. They will probably come under pressure by the Government to offer an alternative without subscription and funded by advertising for those who cannot afford to, or do not want to pay for their TV.
I have assumed that the cost of running a conventional TV channel, with all the links, scheduling, etc, would lead to these linear broadcast channels closing, but some contributors on this thread have suggested that this may not be as costly as I have assumed. If that is correct, and both streaming services and conventional channels can be run side by side without being financially prohibitive, then this may well save the broadcast channels from a complete wipeout. However, I would not be at all surprised to see a reduction in their number, if nothing else.
My detractors have thrown a number of things at me and very strong views have been expressed that although the amount of streaming will increase, it will not be at the expense of our conventional channels because it will find its own level. It has also been suggested that there are technical problems which prevent video streaming from being available to 100% of the population. That of course, is true, but it is a stretch in my opinion to believe that these problems cannot be resolved in the course of 15-20 years, particularly as those in the industry fully expect video streaming to be the name of the game in the future. So, whilst these problems are acknowledged, we can now only wait and see whether they become sticking points in the expansion of the availability of streaming services.
I have been asked specifically about what kind of choices we will have in my vision of the future, but this is more difficult to assess, because unexpected developments do happen. Looking to the future from here, it would appear that TV will be dominated by global providers like Netflix, Amazon, Comcast, etc and supplemented by national providers such as our terrestrials. Even Sky may go global - it is already making strides in that direction.
One of the more pedantic arguments that have come out of this thread is that it is not correct to describe VOD as being separate from linear because it is possible to stream live programmes. Just for the record, I do accept this completely and I have said from the start that some VOD programming will be live. However, all over the internet, linear TV is assumed to refer to our conventional broadcast TV channels, and this is certainly what I have meant by it throughout.
Some have suggested that there will be a section of the population that will resist on demand viewing and that no Government would preside over a situation in which such a system was forced upon them. That argument simply does not wash. If the provision of conventional channels becomes uneconomic, the Government certainly won't step in, except to ensure a smooth transition. This is what happened when analogue was phased out in favour of digital TV.
It has also been said that our conventional channels could refuse to sell their original programmes to the SVOD providers, denuding them of content. However, this ignores the fact that the broadcast channels are heavily reliant these days on selling their shows in this way in order to increase revenue streams. Many channels of course rely on repeat and bought in material and so would find that they had very little to sell to the big streaming players anyway.
In my view, if the BBC were to move from the licence fee to a subscription based service, this would enhance the move to SVOD. All viewers would then have some money (from the saving they make) to purchase alternative provision if they wish to do so.
There has also been a lot of talk about 'what people want' and the fact that some prefer to switch on the box and channel hop. I don't deny that of course, but if I am right and the ability to make existing conventional linear TV channels pay becomes impossible, then I'm afraid that people will just have to get used to it, as they tend to do with any major change in society and how it works.
This has been a most interesting debate and I really did not expect it to become so heated, but I guess now we can sit back and watch things change - in whatever way they are going to change - in the future.
I, for one, will be thoroughly looking forward in the short term to seeing how Virgin Media's commitment to VOD as a means of providing us with exclusive content in the future unfolds.
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