[Horizon]

Old Boy,

The reason why I think Amazon and Netflix won't be around is based on comments by the big media companies today, especially Time Warner. Warner are worried about Neflix's encroachment on "their" territory and eroding HBO's (a TW owned channel) share of the market.

The big media cos will have their own Netflix or Amazon service and withhold their content to the streaming services. Netflix and Amazon will have more of their own content, but that will not justify future growth and keep customers if you can't watch a Warner, Disney, Fox show/film on Netflix and Amazon.

With regards to broadcast channels, they have long been dying a slow death. The main American networks, in particular, are worried. Despite ITV's recent surge, I think it will struggle. Who wants to waste time watching adverts....? I cannot now remember when I last sat down and watched ITV in the evenings. Plus, the evidence from smart phone/tablet viewing by younger folks is that they do not want to waste this time when they can be using it much more "efficiently" on facebook....

While the BBC is still funded by taxes, it will be fine. But once the licence fee is reduced, got rid of, or altered in any way, it will kill off the BBC as we know it in its current form.

There will still be a need for networks, whether it will be terrestrial (although I believe the terrestrial tv network will be gone in 30 years time and the bandwidth used for mobile), broadband networks and mobile. I think satellite delivered tv will die in favour of internet/mobile delivered tv.

I firmly believe that TV will look the same in 30 years time, as it did 30 years ago, on the surface, that is.... But what is underneath that surface will be very different and whoever is in the middle, the middlemen, will be gone.

As an example, if you wanted to book a holiday 30 years ago, you used a travel agent. Who uses a travel agent today? Most people use the net. Taking the same example, when the net came around, lots of people used services like lastminute.com to book their holiday's. But who uses that now? If you want a flight you go direct to Ryan Air's, BA's website and book with the hotels directly creating your own holiday "package".

TV will be like this. A direct relationship between those that create the stuff and those that watch it, I believe.