http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/up...-safe-one.html
Good overview of the state of the election. Clinton ahead but within a polling error of losing.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vincerooney
My prediction? i have a sneaky feeling trump will win. hes closing in the polls and i think a lot of people in the opinion polls arent admitting theyll vote trump. i think its brexit 2 all over again
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I have no idea what's going to happen. I don't like calling these things. I don't have the sinking feeling of my side losing which I had a few weeks before Brexit. The betting markets have it around 70-30 as does the FiveThirtyEight projection so I'll go with that.
There are a lot of undecided voters in the early voting, record highs. However there is also an increase in women, the margin is wider so far, and hispanics whilst African American turnout is down. So I guess either:
- Trump wins a Brexit style victory from white men without a college degree turning out in record numbers
- Clinton wins ala the polls from slightly higher turnout from women, less from men, more from latinos, less from African Americans but otherwise matches Obama in 2012
- Clinton wins comfortably from a huge increase in women and hispanic voters. Voters will a college degree go majority democratic for the first time