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Old 10-09-2014, 14:43   #2090
Stuart
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Personally, I think that while a certain group of very proud and Nationalistic Scots would welcome a Yes vote, and it would probably be very good for Salmond's political career (after all, if his seat isn't safe now, I'd wager it will be if he manages to portray a Yes vote as a way of beating the English), I've done some research on this and I don't think a Yes vote would be good for Scotland as a country.

Why? a few reasons..

1) While they may not have to set up as much of an infrastructure as the UK government has said, they will need to set up some infrastructure. After all, do they have an equivalent of the Inland Revenue or HMRC for tax collection? Both IR and HMRC probably have regional offices in Scotland, but how much control infrastructure do they have? When the Scottish Government needs to deal with either department (say to set taxes), they would need a head office to deal with. This is going to cost money to set up. Even if they use the offices in London, I'll bet that those offices will charge for the privilege. After all, Scotland would be no longer part of the UK, so the government may well demand they pay for their use of UK facilities.

2) Finance. Thanks to North Sea oil, Scotland could be a very wealthy nation. Sadly, North Sea oil is going to run out sooner rather than later. How are the Scottish Government going to finance their plans. It's not as if they'll be able to go to London for a grant, and any loan will need to be paid back.

3) Economy size. In this day and age of globalisation, it's an unfortunate fact that for a country to prosper, it needs the support of the multinational companies. They currently look at the UK and see a country offering easy entry to Europe (in terms of business), a solid (if depleted) manufacturing base and a financial system that, in spite of it's size, is considered to be very powerful on the world markets. What are they going to see when they look at Scotland? A country with a good supply of new tech companies (which helps), a good engineering reputation and little else as far as I can see?

Now,when I post this, I don't mean to patronise or insult either Scotland or any Scot, but I genuinely don't see how becoming their own country will benefit Scotland. As I said, I can see the benefit to Alex Salmond, and I can see the attraction.

There is also the risk that outside investors could become nervous about the future of the Union as a whole as a result of this. Nervous investors are bad, because they tend not to invest. They also, if they have currency, have a tendency to sell it, which will lower our exchange rates. A lack of investment and a sudden rush to sell the Pound could push both Scotland and the rest of the UK into a very deep recession. Something that will negatively affect *everyone* regardless of whether they believe Scotland should be a separate country or not.
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