Well, it's been almost a year since I commented on this thread and although he gets berated from some members, I broadly agree with Old Boy.
My original comments are on page 2, so I'll not repeat those, except to say that is is the content, the programmes, that are key. Not who broadcasts/streams them.
Somethings may well stay the same, but some won't....
I was born into a world of 3 broadcast channels. My parents were born into a world of none. Today there are hundreds of channels as well as VOD and streaming services.
30 years ago, Christmas shows would regularly get 20 million viewers each, today prime time shows are lucky if they get much beyond 7 million.
I think technology has had a major disruptive effect on broadcast, linear television. The latest incarnation, of which, is streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon. But, over the last week several million viewers still sat in front of their tellies each day and watched depressing crap like Eastenders, or whatever other depressing, bleak stuff has been on the box over Christmas. (Dickensian shows, Call The Midwife, some other rubbish set in darkly shot scenes with actors who mumble...etc)
But I think things are cyclical to a point, things tend to go full circle.
I think we will see some form of merging of linear and non linear tv, aided by a super-tivo like, or Netflix like interface.
I think there will probably still remain the 5 main broadcast channels, but these will act like shop windows to other places. I think if you watch a show like Eastenders, you will get some form of on screen graphic highlighting similar shows, but you'll also get a selection of completely different choices as well to wet your appetite.
I do not think any distinction will be made between a linear tv channel, bar special event tv like major football events, and non linear tv. It's hard to explain as it doesn't exist yet!, but tv will get "smarter", smart tvs actually will learn what you like and don't like and tailor your viewing accordingly.
So, at the moment there is the choice between zapping between linear tv channels or looking through menus of VOD or streaming shows. I think this will disappear, as will the hundreds of linear tv channels that exist today. They'll be a few broadcaster channels, but tv will have a Netflix ish style system (far better than today's) which will guide viewers to various choices.
My predictions for the next 20-30 years:
The BBC in its current form will not exist. The license fee will have been killed off a long time by then.
ITV, CH4, Ch5 may remain, but not in their current form.
The hundreds of satellite and cable channels will not exist.
Netflix and Amazon Prime will not exist.
TV will actually become smart and do the donkey work for you and find something for you to watch.
The creators of content will be king and although major media companies may still exist, it is the creators/writers of stuff that will be in the driving seat.
In 30 years time, a major show or sports event could be watched by 20 million+ viewers all watching at the same time in a very linear, old fashioned way.
---------- Post added at 00:39 ---------- Previous post was at 00:12 ----------
I suppose what I'm saying is that tv shows used to be watched at the same time by whole swathes of the country. I strongly believe tv will go BACK to this.
Currently linear tv, especially the main broadcast channels, have made themselves irrelevant and largely unwatchable. Tv is dominated by soaps, celebrity chefs, bargain hunt, buying a house, follow the police around, other reality type shows.
BUT, I do not believe tv is irrelevant, but a very powerful medium and if you get the right show (Game of Thrones as an example) you get what tv execs call the watercooler moment. When people in offices are talking about the same tv show that was on the night before. This is what ALL tv execs want.
But at the moment everyone is heading towards M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction). Audiences of broadcast channels here and in America are dwindling and not sustainable for much longer.
Streaming services are threatening the traditional tv bundle of channels and will eventually kill them off. So, we will reach a point where there will be a lot of blood on the carpet and the causalities will be immense in the media world. But out of the mess, will come order and decent tv will prevail and Jon Snow will become king.
Happy New Year to you ALL.
