Interesting takes here on the survival of broadcast TV channels, which should please Chris!
Ultimately, of course the eventual outcome will depend on viewer behaviour.
http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/Broad...s-demandit.php
Broadcast will not die - audiences demand it
What’s more likely, according to an IBC panel convened to discuss what audiences want, is that the technology to broadcast content, if not the linear schedule itself, will be mixed into a hybrid with streaming on-demand.
“I don’t think the business model of creating quality content and marketing content to consumer will change,” said Ericsson's Gordon Castle, Head of Strategy Area Mediacom. “Over 80 per cent of people want packaged content and services from the same provider so there’s really high support for the traditional model. However, the technology itself is declining. We already know that in certain, rural parts of the world a mobile network can compete with fibre and meet the performance of even a fixed connection. For highly popular short/mid-tail content, broadcast technology continues to make the most sense as it’s very cost effective. For VOD and niche linear long-tail TV content, service providers can use broadband unicast to improve efficiency.”
James Alexander, Strategy & Proposition Director - NowTV said the concept of mass TV distribution will linger for some time. “A lot of our communications are associated with a time slot to push people to watch at a certain time of day but we having discussions around just saying the day it is available and giving people the choice of when to watch.”
“People been saying TV will die for a decade or more,” said David Bunker, Head of Projects, BBC Audiences. “People don’t necessarily care if something is only scheduled live but they do care if the content is in the moment and they are able to participate in it.”
Only Niko Waesche, Global Industry Head, Media and Entertainment from GfK differed. “In advanced countries with broadband, broadcast will be gone by 2030. Why would you need it, albeit you would need 100% broadband for regulatory purposes? More likely you will have content that is broadcast and mixed in the STB with ads that are stored locally.
The panellists also challenged the idea that linear TV is doomed.
“Our data says that this is not so,” Waesche said. “Sometimes people want to share the experience. There is a certain need for certain parts of the programme that everyone want to watch.
Fabian Birgfeld, Founder and Director - W12 Studios, said that the concept of a channel curated by time is a strong one. “It’s still by far the easiest way to consume content. People gravitate back to playlists and order. Traditionally that’s been done by broadcasters and that is probably doomed but other brands could be taste makers. It’s just a shift of control. Will social create the same experience as a channel - shows that are discovered because they have a buzz around them.
Alexander explained that Now TV has a linear, box sets and catch up “as a mini-Sky”. The key difference, he said is that “in our UI we favour on-demand where we don’t need advertising which customers like and we bury the live. You turn on the EPG and customers will have to search for live but 25 per cent of our viewing is still live.”
Few thought Netflix was killing pay TV. “Netflix is complementary with Now TV,” said Alexander. “Half of our customers are also consuming Netflix. Netflix is just another channel in a different guise. It is payTV.”
Asked for their thoughts on what has changed in terms of audience behaviour over the last few years Birgfeld said he thought the industry had come from a place of control but the audience has shown us that they don’t want to be in control. “Everything is a click or swipe away. From a designer’s point of view what is most challenging is this incredible fragmentation of experience.”
Ericsson highlighted the growth of mobile viewing at 71% a year since 2012 and that companies like Facebook are seeing a rise in mobile advertising of 84% a year. “We’re now seeing applications where the mobile phone gets blended with the TV,” said Castle. “People are using mobile to find the content they want and casting gives them the ability to watch on the screen of their choice. Binge watching has changed consumer behaviour especially on SVOD. We report that 83% of people binge watch on their SVOD package a week.”
The BBC’s Bunker has been in media research for 30 years back when there were just four channels. He suggested that in the last five years VOD moving to the TV set was a big deal. “We’re finding not just young people binging but older people realising you can do this now. The bigger thing is people’s expectations around content - the mindset of people has changed. to one of expectation of TV everywhere anywhere.”
GfK’s Waesche said change itself was a bit of a myth. “Time spent with TV has not decreased, in fact in many countries it has risen. In developing countries there’s a boom in TV watching driven by new infrastructure. 80 per cent of activity on a normal set activity in west european markets is still on TV but 20% is on OTT catch up and other services. You can see that within the TV box thing are happening but European TV broadcasters are as profitable as ever and revenues are rising - so what’s all the fuss about?”