Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
From Scotland's point of view, I think the referendum is a good tactic to put pressure on Theresa May tp obtain a deal that works well for Scotland. But I think it's a bit bizarre wanting it midway through the negotiations as Scotland won't fully know what Brexit will look like.
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She needs to capitalise on the uncertainty. She also hopes to convince people that voting for independence before the UK has actually left the EU will mean that Scotland will never actually leave (which is nonsense - the UK has favourable membership terms which the rest of the EU resents, there is no way they're going to allow continuity of membership under those terms).
Once the UK is out of the EU, then Scotland within a fully independent UK is a quantifiable thing. Scotland out of the UK and queueing to get into the EU is the great unknown. A referendum fought on those terms would be impossible for the Nats.
If May agrees to transfer powers, expect her to do so on condition that the thing isn't held before 2020 at the earliest. Alternatively, permission to do one, but only within the next 6 months, might be worth an each-way bet ...