Potential for ‘deep recession’ if Scotland goes solo
http://www.ftadviser.com/2014/09/09/...P/article.html
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Credit Suisse economists have added to the gloomy predictions as to what could happen should Scotland leave the UK.
The Swiss bank’s economists reckon that Scotland would slump into a “deep recession” if it secedes from the UK, and deposit flight from its banking sector is both “highly likely and highly problematic”, given the size of the embryonic country’s financial sector.
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Not Westminster, Not Better Together, but Credit Swiss.
---------- Post added at 21:25 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------
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Originally Posted by LondonRoad
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Here is a good, balanced, article about the issue:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-key-questions
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Will Scotland join the EU
Yes. Almost certainly. But it will not be as easy or as quick as Scotland’s first minister Alex Salmond and the yes camp say. The issue sits astride a legal conundrum. There is no provision in the EU treaties for a member state of the EU falling apart, with the breakaway part then joining the EU. Legal problems abound. Scotland will probably have to apply to join, says Brussels. That needs the agreement of the other 28. There will be humming and hawing in Spain, Belgium and other countries facing separatist challenges.
But in the end politics will trump legal niceties. It will be very difficult for Brussels to ignore a free, peaceful, democratic referendum outcome without looking anti-democratic. Besides, the entire body of EU law and regulation already applies in Scotland, so negotiations should be relatively smooth.
But there will be arguments over the UK rebate from the EU budget and over the euro single currency (all new members have to commit to join it). Membership needs to be ratified by the other 28 parliaments and the European parliament. Salmond claims it can all be done in 18 months. That looks like wishful thinking.
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and as for borders:
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Would I need a passport to cross the Scottish border?
A deal to keep an independent Scotland within the common travel area – as the Scottish government proposes, and as Ireland already is – looks to be the most straightforward and workable solution. But political rows over immigration could be a real obstacle. It is hard to see a Westminster government of whatever hue signing up to an open border agreement with an independent Scotland that is taking a markedly different tack on immigrants. (The first minister, Alex Salmond, has said he wants to see net migration rise to about 24,000 a year.)
The issue of EU membership makes this yet more twisty. Should Salmond be wrong about the smooth transition to full EU membership, the Schengen problem could become very real. Given current attitudes to the EU and immigration within the wider UK, it is not hard to assume that if Scotland has to sign up to free movement for all EU nationals, the rest of the UK would be even more inclined to shut the door. Until there is a clearer answer on Scotland’s future membership of the EU, the passport issue is likely to remain unresolved. CP
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Read the whole article however. It's good.