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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
These are not my 'plans', Harry, and contrary to what some have been saying on here, the end of linear TV is not 'what I want'. It is mere speculation on my part, inviting discussion, and it is based on what I see as a drift away from conventional method of viewing, with the growth of streaming services.
I'm sure that you are at least half right about existing habits of teenagers, but when they settle down and have their own TV, I can't see them putting up with how linear TV works with all those tempting on demand alternatives present for the taking (and decidedly cheaper than linear premium TV channels). As I have said before, the margin of profitability of these channels is tight, and it would not take a huge audience drop to reduce advertising revenues and force channels off the air.
I have listened to the detractors from this argument, and Chris has made some good points about existing levels of capacity. I am not sufficiently technical to be able to rebuff some of the points he makes but what I can say with a fair degree of confidence is that a way through those problems will be found.
You can criticise me if you like for not coming up with a full technical resume on how the problems Chris mentions can be overcome, but frankly, that is not up to me. This is a discussion, not a business plan! I note, Harry, that you continue to tell us that Netflix will be sporting commercials, despite direct denials by the company, and so your arguments on this subject, with respect, are not so robust either.
In relation to content, I think it is becoming obvious that in years to come, the streaming companies will be picking up exclusively the best programmes available from the US and elsewhere, leaving nothing but the scraps for the broadcast linear channels. So they will have to make or commission more programmes of their own. There are financial implications there that the broadcasters will have to assess very carefully.
Now some will say that Sky's new deal with Showtime proves the opposite, but of course it does not. We are not talking about the now, we are talking about the future. Ultimately, it is the companies with the global reach that will outbid the likes of Sky and our terrestrials. Sky's exclusive deal with Showtime may well prove to be one of its last.
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I am afraid you will have to show me some evidence of how the internet/electricity issues and consistently high BB speeds fast enough for everyone in the country to receive the uninterrupted world of streaming services you envisage, will be overcome. Netflix and the others, must of already got their heads together and hired teams of people to be working on solving this very problem, other wise how else will they rule the televisual world in 10 years time?
Obviously I can not find any thing to back up my opinion with regards ads on Netflix, how ever, I dread to think how much Netflix will cost in 10 years time without them. Amazon have ad's on their main website, and also make more money from their main business model, so they could in theory, subsidise Amazon prime as ad free - if they choose to. Equally, I can not see them turning down ads to keep costs down. Also, you have seen me state Sky are showing ads on some of their OD portfolio and others have stated other broadcasters are showing adverts on their online offerings.
So I think its safe to say, Netflix et al, will eventually have to follow suit or risk losing out on extra money their direct rivals will be taking otherwise. How will they make up that lost money? By putting customer subscriptions up. Don't forget the more Netflix etc buy and/or the more their costs go up.
With regards streaming services, and your thoughts of Netflix etc picking up exclusive rights to the best programmes from the US and elsewhere. I assume you mean they will buy worldwide exclusive rights for their content? How much do you think that will cost without them, without taking vast amounts of ad money for global, un-skippable ads? Equally, would it then be finacially feasible for them to not be advertising to a global market, imagine the money they will turn down. These are serious issues that need to be addressed in your proposed world.
Even if what you envisage is true, considering most of the studios already own most of the production companies, and already make their own programmes, it is unlikely they will continue to give their best programmes away to the opposition.
If Netflix et al continue to grow into the monster you imagine they will become, what is to stop the content owners of the linear channels (who in your visions of the future world will be going out of business) from with holding any or all of their content from Netflix et al? Thus leaving Netflix et al, with only their minor amounts of exclusive content?
Incidently, how much do think Netflix alone will cost in 10 years and how much would you be willing to pay for a world of, say, 10 streaming services?