Eurozone will collapse...
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I seem to recall quite a few pronouncements Jack Straw made which didn't come to pass but is he right about this? |
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He is probably understating how bad it will be and for how long risks will remain. It's highly likely that due to the UK proximity that we'd be sucked in. At worst we could lose a lot of trading partners (due to their economic difficulties).
At best it could just affect some very wealthy individuals and countries ( I can't see this happening though) I think what we might have to prepare ourselves for is what happened to Japan after it suffered in 1990. It had a lot of similarities to the economic outlook that we face now - property bubble popped and an ageing population |
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I reckon in years to come Gordon Brown, regardless of his other faults, will be seen as quite good for putting his foot down and not allowing Blair to drag us into the Euro.
It's time seems to be drawing to a close in it's current form, a one size fits all policy for Europe was never going to work. |
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I guess we have to credit Brown with something ... It might as well be rescuing us from the Eurozone nightmare. :tu:
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I think we should leave the EU. We are one of the founding nations and yet our voice seems to have been drowned out.
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We are neither a founding nation of the EU, nor are we a member of the common currency of the EU. ;)
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Aside from the fact that 'one size fits all' economics evidently doesn't work, it seems to me that the EU is fundamentally flawed in the sense that the larger it's become, the less able it is to be decisive when tough action is required.
I always felt there'd be a growing sense of them and us between the member states of the EU and the notion that we'd all live happily ever after in prosperity would be shown to be a pipe dream. I really do think there's a lot worse to come. |
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Keeping us out of the euro was the only good thing he did, really. Who was it who wasted £10,000,000,000 of our money trying uselessly to keep the pound in the ERM, though? Was that Brown?
A single currency can't work unless it's the only currency, anywhere. Oh, that's so likely, isn't it? :rolleyes: I'm only surprised the damn thing's stil going. The sooner it collapses and we can get on with our lives, the better. |
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£3.3 billion, to be accurate, of which £2.4 billion was lost profit of not keeping enough foreign currency reserves to profit on Sterlings devaluation.
All down to Norm Lamont.... |
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:D |
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It was the same after Thatcher left office and, believe it or not, there are those around here who still go on about her as if she'd been in power until last year...... ;) ---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ---------- Quote:
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It was only £4.7 billion.....
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----------------- Found this if anyone's interested: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...rown-told.html Quote:
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and there can be no denying that and there has also been a lot of Conservative ones that have made monumental mistakes in the past and there can be no denying that either. |
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Ah. So Labour politicians make mistakes, but when Tories make them they're 'monumental'. Balanced. Not. ;)
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I know whose monumental mistakes I'm more concerned about right now.
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The ERM problems happened at a time when speculators were picking on different currencies, one after the other. If the speculators can be sure of how they are all likely to react(ie buy or sell a currency), then they can make easy money. IIRC the head of the German central bank(Bundesbank) said that sterling should be devalued, the government said they wouldn't. The ever helpful BBC News said that whenever a government said a devaluation wouldn't happen, it did anyway. This was the signal for action by the speculators. The government didn't devalue sterling, the money markets did. The speculators could profit by selling sterling, therefore driving the price down and then once things had settled, because the price had gone done, buy more sterling for the currency they had moved to(eg Deutsch Marks).
So the ERM problems were unseen to an extent, whereas the Gold issues where obvious straight away. |
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Its depends on your political point of view but yes Gordon Brown made mistakes but there were strong world factors at work also and l do not think you can deny that either and on the point of balance well Chris that applys to many others on this forum as well. ---------- Post added at 10:54 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ---------- Quote:
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This seems to be a hot topic on Question Time...
Bump! ---------- Post added at 23:47 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ---------- Sorry, thought it was. Clearly not. |
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I'd have added a comment or two if I'd seen QT. We were watching last night's Apprentice on iPlayer instead.
Might catch up with QT tomorrow. |
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It's here for those who don't mind having their blood pressure go off the scale..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006t1q9 ---------- Post added at 10:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:59 ---------- A smidgen of good news? Quote:
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Fair enough - I don't see a problem with us discharging our responsibilities via the IMF, however it is quite right that we don't pay a double whammy along with the Eurozone countries. They chose to take part in this batty currency experiment. We had the good sense to stay out of it.
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Just makes you wonder who's at the helm of EU expansion and how on earth they ever considered Greece (and certain other countries) suitable to join the Euro. What's even more worrying is that these same people still seem hell bent on further expanding the EU.... :confused: I'm of the firm opinion that any money lent to Greece now will go the same way as the last lot and never be repaid. Of course the Eurocrats can't admit that so they'll go on pretending that these are just loans and it'll all be alright in the end. Something decisive needs to be done to stop the rot but I can't see it happening just yet. |
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The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one. The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months. On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed. |
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Britain's Treasury has been accused of sneaking through an extra contribution to the International Monetary Fund of £9.2billion. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...oars-22bn.html |
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Oh dear, the Greeks seem to have had enough of the old austerity measures. Presumably they feel a year or two of suffering is enough but given the scale of the problems they face, I think they need to get real and accept that the 'good times' are likely to be over for the foreseeable future. Those engaged in smashing up bits of Athens and rioting need to learn that it isn't going to solve anything, in fact it's likely to make matters even worse.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13935400 |
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What would the rammifications of letting them go to the wall be?
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Not really, if the Greek economy currency collapsed then they can;t exactly devalue the euro.. It would be a case of major and continued bail-out or dropping the euro and going back to the drachma..
If they dropped the euro then that would only increase the value of the euro for everyone else.. Until the next country has issues... |
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For us, or just them?
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... which is why, prior to the single currency's launch, there were convergence criteria that were supposed to ensure that only economies of broadly similar performance and resilience could join it. The whole point was to prevent the Euro, or a weak economy, or both, being damaged by precisely the sort of train wreck we're seeing in Greece this week.
The single currency is an insane vanity project conceived and perpetrated by people who were prepared to fudge or entirely ignore their own rules just to see it launched. Their blinkered approach may yet be a significant factor in its failure. |
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If one country drops the euro then it'll strengthen the rest.. The "Next country" line was purely due to the continued recession and not the euro.. @Chris, You have to give them credit though that it lasted this long before one of them got into trouble.. There though always was going to be an issue with so many individual markets trying to link themselves to a single currency.. I would have thought that the simple fact that every country within europe will never give up their own governmental powers and totally default to a european central government for all aspects of rule would have meant that the euro could never be anything but an experiment.. I wonder if the european union will give a push to certain countries and force them to drop out and then at least the core countries from which the euro is stabilised will have a chance to continue?? |
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The logical argument for tax and economic policy convergence within the Eurozone is of course irresistible. As I said earlier, the Dollar only works across the USA because there's a federal government sitting above the individual state governments, running a federal economic policy which includes massive transfers of wealth from the states that make money (like California) to those that don't (like Alaska). I'm not sure, however, that even France or Germany are quite ready to embrace such a level of harmonization, which I think means either that a 12-member Euro is going to continue to lurch from one crisis to another, or else a smaller Eurozone will have to be created, comprised of those economies that genuinely can cope with it (i.e. only those that should have qualified to be in it in the first place). |
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http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/p...isis-1.1108419 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...=feeds-newsxml |
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Domino effect only has credence if they don't pull out of the euro and the other countries prop them up.. (I personally think that the other Eurozone countries will drop greece like a hot potato if it gets any worse)
You have to take articles in context and not as a blanket ;) |
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If the greek vote goes against austerity measures then it'll be interesting to see how the main core of Europe and also of the IMF reacts..
ATM the benefits of the EU and of the IMF are finely balanced, if this takes it over the edge then we could see some drastic measures.. Throwing Greece to the wolves might be the only option to keep the balance intact. Remember we are in a worldwide recession still and most countries will have their back-up plan for self survival.. |
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Interesting point from Robert Peston's blog
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Not really a sound basis for going forward, is it? |
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Well the Greek parliment have voted with common sense and passed the Austerity vote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13960947 |
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Agreed, but why do the Greek masses dissagree and riot?
Do they not see that they are broke and there is no choice? |
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how about the moneys that greece makes from tourism whyb can that money not be used to help the people of greece and why cannot the fat cats in greece give up thier huge wages and live more sensibly like the rest of us
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Actually, it is the fact that all levels of society have been avoiding paying taxes, not just the 'fat cats', and that Greece spent far more than it raised in taxes....
But hey - a class warrior never let's facts get in the way of a good diatribe, hey? |
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im nota class warrior i just say when i think summats wrong
its not the working people of this counrty that hide money in tax havens and employ top accountents to find loop holes to avoid payying tax |
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I agree with you that everyone should pay their fair share of tax - however, avoiding paying tax is not illegal, evading it is... Anyhoo, we were talking about Greece, where, as I stated, it isn't just the "fat cats", it is also the "working class" who avoid paying all the taxes they should.... |
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Quite right - tax evasion as opposed to avoidance is virtually endemic in Greece. To that extent, whilst I sympathise with the problems ordinary people there face, they are in part responsible for it in just the samne way that those here who helped inflate the credit bubble with spending based on borrowing against their homes.
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The whole business of domino effects is why I've never agreed with globalisation; whatever happens in Greece, a completely separate country from the UK, should not affect us, but of course it will. Local problems should be kept local. Globalisation's only good when things are going right - which, at present, they're not. Global trade by all means, but not a global economy.
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What happens in Greece only effects the UK because we let it. I'm all for membership of the EU but it shouldn't mean that we bail out every country who can't see the mess that they put themselves in. The EU was originally a way of lowering borders to give easier travel, commerce between member countries, sorry to say that is now overshadowed by combined legislation and also support for countries that will never be in a position to ever offer us the same support.
---------- Post added at 15:23 ---------- Previous post was at 15:15 ---------- Greek MP's have now just passed the 2nd stages of Austerity laws.. Hopefully the rioters will see that they can't stop the changes as all they're doing is damaging Greece even more. |
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I too have a nasty feeling that if/when our time comes to knock on the ECB's and/or IMF's doors for a bail out they'll echo the words of Liam Byrne and say: Dear UK "I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left"..... :mad: |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8508136.stm |
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Britain though does need to take a step back, put their foot down and state that yes we're happy to be part of Europe but not as the rich uncle/aunt who is forever coming to the rescue of the smaller states.. I wonder if the way things are going that the EU will become a two tier system with France, Germany, UK (and maybe one or two more) cutting funding links with the lower group and to some extent isolating themselves from those countries that see the EU as a charity. The EU should be a "club" of disinction and of economic harmony and membership should be restricted to those capable of adding to the collective as well as benefiting from it. |
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I was all for membership of the 'Common Market' which is what we voted for all those years ago.
Since then it's been hijacked to build a sort of Socialist European Empire. It's high time some of this wasteful and corrupt system was dismantled. Maybe Greece will mark a start. |
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I thin the EU aleady is 2 tier with the likes of France and Germany doing pretty much what they like at times and the rest following on behind. Sadly, I feel we're all so closely bound now that there's no way out without real pain - the best we can do is not get any further in. |
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On the other hand, if potential investors get scared off from investing in certain countries, they are more likely to invest in other more 'secure' countries(eg UK?) instead
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Overconfidence fuelled the dotcom boom and housing bubble. Lack of confidence, however, can cause fundamentally sound businesses to be driven to the wall or a run on the banks as was seen with Northern Crock. It can become self-fulfilling. |
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According to this they say the only country that can save the EMU is Germany and l have to agree with that but we have to question whether Germany are really that committed to saving it in the long term.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-systemic.html |
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Very surprised that the Euro exchange rate hasn't been more effected.. since last month it's only moved a couple of cents down against the pound???
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Germany have done well from the Eurozone, it's kept their exports cheap for a while.
No way they'll get their money back directly. The only thing that'll rescue the Eurozone now is probably full fiscal union. That will trigger referendums and cause constitutional problems in Germany. EDIT: This does assume it's not sneaked in via the back door of course. |
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I'd say it's throwing good money after bad - if there was such a thing as 'good money' anymore. This thing is going to get seriously out of hand! |
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From the brief reports I have read the bailout has had a cautiously optimistic reception from some economists. They seem to think it will work but at the cost (or gain) of closer fiscal ties amongst the Eurozone countries.
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My wife's just come back from Slovakia - she reports massive price inflation since she was last there just a few years ago. The false Eurocrat promise of western affluence for all has only led to prices going through the roof whilst wages stagnate...... |
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Again, My understanding is they consider this path to be the lesser of two evils. They would rather save Greece than let them fall and trigger a full blown crisis across Europe. If Greece exposed the Italian and Spanish banks, which are already on the verge, then there are more countries (such as us!) which are exposed to them and so on. At the same time they seem to be giving themselves an awful lot of power other the currency and each other's economies. One commentator said they had a choice to grow apart or enter a more closer union. They took the 2nd option. |
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As intriguing as the NOTW scandal is, I really can't understand why it's occupying so much political and media time when we're on the verge of an almighty financial crash which will have very grave consequences for us all. |
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Regardless of what happens we're being lashed to the mast, and certainly not being asked if we're happy about it.
Europe could be the issue that breaks this coalition, Cameron can only pander to the Euro-sycophant Clegg and ignore both a large swathe of his own party and a large swathe of the population for so long. As far as Clegg goes given he claims to be a Liberal Democrat he should be all in favour of a plebiscite. |
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Greece forced to abandon the Euro in favour of Paypal
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All that printing money and lending borrowed money doesn't seem to be working does it..... |
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Europe cries out for leadership and courage as global share sell-off continues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-2332654.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-disaster.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...e-to-fall.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...decisions.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ing-again.html |
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Looks like it it is getting closer to home?
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Well it hasn't gone away yet....
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Every time I see this thread title, I just think
The Eurozone will collapse... The Pandorica will open... Silence will fall... :spin: :D ---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:47 ---------- On topic, the BBC News website is using a superb picture of Silvo as the still on top of its video clip for this news item. He's sitting on a gilded, velvet-lined throne that makes him look like a Godfather. :D |
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UK Chancellor George Osborne has said the eurozone debt crisis is a "real danger" to all of Europe as he arrived for a summit in Brussels.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15414168 |
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Every western economy seems to be borrowing money hand over fist. But where does that money come from?
Can anyone point me to a simple explanation of this system as it seems to me as a financial innocent that there must be a magic money tree somewhere. |
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If there was a magic money tree, the council would have cut it down by now to make room for a new house.
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It is just over an hour long and explains how the system works, and how it began to be the way it is (basically why banks are allowed to invent money and lend it to us, legally, whereas we can't buy a printing press and invent our own money without going to jail). If anyone else remembers where this video is to be found, please post - I still need to watch the last 10 minutes or so. Wish I could remember! |
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Was that the money as debt video(s)?
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All they need is one quick phone call to debtmatters and within minutes they'll be out of the red and into the black.
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