Cable Forum

Cable Forum (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/index.php)
-   Current Affairs (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/forumdisplay.php?f=20)
-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

Osem 20-06-2011 21:36

Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Jack Straw has predicted the collapse of the eurozone and urged the UK to consider the "alternatives" as the Greek debt crisis worsens.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13839381

I seem to recall quite a few pronouncements Jack Straw made which didn't come to pass but is he right about this?

chris9991 20-06-2011 21:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
He is probably understating how bad it will be and for how long risks will remain. It's highly likely that due to the UK proximity that we'd be sucked in. At worst we could lose a lot of trading partners (due to their economic difficulties).

At best it could just affect some very wealthy individuals and countries ( I can't see this happening though)

I think what we might have to prepare ourselves for is what happened to Japan after it suffered in 1990. It had a lot of similarities to the economic outlook that we face now - property bubble popped and an ageing population

Derek 21-06-2011 00:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I reckon in years to come Gordon Brown, regardless of his other faults, will be seen as quite good for putting his foot down and not allowing Blair to drag us into the Euro.

It's time seems to be drawing to a close in it's current form, a one size fits all policy for Europe was never going to work.

Chris 21-06-2011 09:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I guess we have to credit Brown with something ... It might as well be rescuing us from the Eurozone nightmare. :tu:

Hom3r 21-06-2011 12:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I think we should leave the EU. We are one of the founding nations and yet our voice seems to have been drowned out.

Chris 21-06-2011 12:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
We are neither a founding nation of the EU, nor are we a member of the common currency of the EU. ;)

Osem 21-06-2011 13:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Aside from the fact that 'one size fits all' economics evidently doesn't work, it seems to me that the EU is fundamentally flawed in the sense that the larger it's become, the less able it is to be decisive when tough action is required.

I always felt there'd be a growing sense of them and us between the member states of the EU and the notion that we'd all live happily ever after in prosperity would be shown to be a pipe dream.

I really do think there's a lot worse to come.

denphone 21-06-2011 16:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35261225)
I guess we have to credit Brown with something ... It might as well be rescuing us from the Eurozone nightmare. :tu:

l will have to put this on record on you praising Gordon Brown.;)

devilincarnate 21-06-2011 16:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35261342)

I really do think there's a lot worse to come.

Yes I believe this as well, as we/others are the ship and they are the iceberg:erm:

Anonymouse 21-06-2011 16:53

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Keeping us out of the euro was the only good thing he did, really. Who was it who wasted £10,000,000,000 of our money trying uselessly to keep the pound in the ERM, though? Was that Brown?

A single currency can't work unless it's the only currency, anywhere. Oh, that's so likely, isn't it? :rolleyes:

I'm only surprised the damn thing's stil going. The sooner it collapses and we can get on with our lives, the better.

Hugh 21-06-2011 17:34

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
£3.3 billion, to be accurate, of which £2.4 billion was lost profit of not keeping enough foreign currency reserves to profit on Sterlings devaluation.

All down to Norm Lamont....

denphone 21-06-2011 17:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35261471)
£3.3 billion, to be accurate, of which £2.4 billion was lost profit of not keeping enough foreign currency reserves to profit on Sterlings devaluation.

All down to Norm Lamont....

Nice to know you are blaming a politician other then a labour one.;)

Damien 21-06-2011 18:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35261471)
£3.3 billion, to be accurate, of which £2.4 billion was lost profit of not keeping enough foreign currency reserves to profit on Sterlings devaluation.

All down to Norm Lamont....

Norman Lamont! Knew it was him! Even when it was Gordon Brown I knew it was him!!

:D

denphone 21-06-2011 18:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35261504)
Norman Lamont! Knew it was him! Even when it was Gordon Brown I knew it was him!!

:D

You sure about that.;):D:D;)

Hugh 21-06-2011 20:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35261475)
Nice to know you are blaming a politician other then a labour one.;)

I hold those who are responsible responsible, no matter what party - you should try it....;)

Sirius 21-06-2011 20:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35261437)
l will have to put this on record on you praising Gordon Brown.;)

Include me as well. The mans a prat but at least he kept us out of that shambles that is the Euro.

---------- Post added at 20:30 ---------- Previous post was at 20:27 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35261507)
You sure about that.;):D:D;)

Which one of those 2 sold the gold off for the cheapest price he could find :LOL: :Sprint:

Osem 21-06-2011 21:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35261475)
Nice to know you are blaming a politician other then a labour one.;)

Well with 13 years of government by New Labour with Brown at the top as Chancellor and PM ending only last year, it's hardly surprising that his name features rather a lot in our discussions about the mess we're in is it.

It was the same after Thatcher left office and, believe it or not, there are those around here who still go on about her as if she'd been in power until last year...... ;)

---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35261563)
Which one of those 2 sold the gold off for the cheapest price he could find :LOL: :Sprint:

Yes I think that 'prudent' move rather dwarfs what was wasted at the time of the ERM debacle - our membership of which was, IIRC, supported by Labour at the time.

Hugh 21-06-2011 21:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It was only £4.7 billion.....

Sirius 21-06-2011 21:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35261605)
It was only £4.7 billion.....

:rolleyes: only :)

Osem 21-06-2011 21:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35261608)
:rolleyes: only :)

£4.7billion and counting? :D

-----------------

Found this if anyone's interested: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...rown-told.html

Quote:

The taxpayer lost an estimated £7 billion, twice the amount lost when Britain left the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
The proceeds from the sales were invested in dollars, euros and yen. In recent years, most other countries have begun buying gold again in large quantities.
Sadly it all seems like peanuts given the vast sums currently at stake........

denphone 22-06-2011 05:12

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35261558)
I hold those who are responsible responsible, no matter what party - you should try it....;)

There have been Labour politicians who have made mistakes
and there can be no denying that and there has also been a lot of Conservative ones that have made monumental mistakes in the past and there can be no denying that either.

Chris 22-06-2011 08:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Ah. So Labour politicians make mistakes, but when Tories make them they're 'monumental'. Balanced. Not. ;)

Osem 22-06-2011 09:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I know whose monumental mistakes I'm more concerned about right now.

nomadking 22-06-2011 10:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The ERM problems happened at a time when speculators were picking on different currencies, one after the other. If the speculators can be sure of how they are all likely to react(ie buy or sell a currency), then they can make easy money. IIRC the head of the German central bank(Bundesbank) said that sterling should be devalued, the government said they wouldn't. The ever helpful BBC News said that whenever a government said a devaluation wouldn't happen, it did anyway. This was the signal for action by the speculators. The government didn't devalue sterling, the money markets did. The speculators could profit by selling sterling, therefore driving the price down and then once things had settled, because the price had gone done, buy more sterling for the currency they had moved to(eg Deutsch Marks).

So the ERM problems were unseen to an extent, whereas the Gold issues where obvious straight away.

Osem 22-06-2011 10:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35261734)
The ERM problems happened at a time when speculators were picking on different currencies, one after the other. If the speculators can be sure of how they are all likely to react(ie buy or sell a currency), then they can make easy money. IIRC the head of the German central bank(Bundesbank) said that sterling should be devalued, the government said they wouldn't. The ever helpful BBC News said that whenever a government said a devaluation wouldn't happen, it did anyway. This was the signal for action by the speculators. The government didn't devalue sterling, the money markets did. The speculators could profit by selling sterling, therefore driving the price down and then once things had settled, because the price had gone done, buy more sterling for the currency they had moved to(eg Deutsch Marks).

So the ERM problems were unseen to an extent, whereas the Gold issues where obvious straight away.

That's a very good point. When the speculators sense blood they really go for it. One reason why the EU shouldn't be seen to be weak or dithering about the economic crisis.

denphone 22-06-2011 10:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35261703)
Ah. So Labour politicians make mistakes, but when Tories make them they're 'monumental'. Balanced. Not. ;)


Its depends on your political point of view but yes Gordon Brown made mistakes but there were strong world factors at work also and l do not think you can deny that either and on the point of balance well Chris that applys to many others on this forum as well.

---------- Post added at 10:54 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35261724)
I know whose monumental mistakes I'm more concerned about right now.

Yes Mr Cameron has been making a few lately.;)

Tuftus 23-06-2011 23:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This seems to be a hot topic on Question Time...

Bump!

---------- Post added at 23:47 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------

Sorry, thought it was.

Clearly not.

Chris 23-06-2011 23:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I'd have added a comment or two if I'd seen QT. We were watching last night's Apprentice on iPlayer instead.

Might catch up with QT tomorrow.

Osem 24-06-2011 10:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It's here for those who don't mind having their blood pressure go off the scale..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006t1q9

---------- Post added at 10:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:59 ----------

A smidgen of good news?

Quote:

David Cameron has won his battle to limit the amount of money the UK will have to contribute towards a second financial bail-out for Greece.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13896201

Chris 24-06-2011 10:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Fair enough - I don't see a problem with us discharging our responsibilities via the IMF, however it is quite right that we don't pay a double whammy along with the Eurozone countries. They chose to take part in this batty currency experiment. We had the good sense to stay out of it.

Osem 26-06-2011 09:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Greece's current predicament can be told in numbers, big ones.
The national debt is around 340bn euros. That is one and a half times the value of everything the country produces, its GDP, or 30,000 euro for every Greek citizen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13854962

Just makes you wonder who's at the helm of EU expansion and how on earth they ever considered Greece (and certain other countries) suitable to join the Euro. What's even more worrying is that these same people still seem hell bent on further expanding the EU.... :confused:

I'm of the firm opinion that any money lent to Greece now will go the same way as the last lot and never be repaid. Of course the Eurocrats can't admit that so they'll go on pretending that these are just loans and it'll all be alright in the end. Something decisive needs to be done to stop the rot but I can't see it happening just yet.

denphone 26-06-2011 09:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35262911)
Fair enough - I don't see a problem with us discharging our responsibilities via the IMF, however it is quite right that we don't pay a double whammy along with the Eurozone countries. They chose to take part in this batty currency experiment. We had the good sense to stay out of it.

Yes thank god we did have the good sense to stay out of it.

Chris 26-06-2011 09:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35263801)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13854962

Just makes you wonder who's at the helm of EU expansion and how on earth they ever considered Greece (and certain other countries) suitable to join the Euro. What's even more worrying is that these same people still seem hell bent on further expanding the EU.... :confused:

I'm of the firm opinion that any money lent to Greece now will go the same way as the last lot and never be repaid. Of course the Eurocrats can't admit that so they'll go on pretending that these are just loans and it'll all be alright in the end. Something decisive needs to be done to stop the rot but I can't see it happening just yet.

You're confusing two competing philosophies within the European Union Osem - Integrationist and Expansionist.

The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one.

The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months.

On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed.


denphone 26-06-2011 09:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35263813)
You're confusing two competing philosophies within the European Union Osem - Integrationist and Expansionist.

The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one.

The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months.

On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed.


l have to say on this you are talking a lot of sense Chris and we do not generally agree on anything usually.

Osem 26-06-2011 20:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35263813)
You're confusing two competing philosophies within the European Union Osem - Integrationist and Expansionist.

The Expansionists (principally the UK) favour a wider union; the Integrationists favour an 'ever deeper' union. The Euro is an integrationist project whereas eastern expansion is, well, an Expansionist one.

The Integationists, quite rightly, see a single currency as a means to bring about a federal European super-state. If the single currency survives the current mess, there will now be a very powerful argument in favour of introducing some of the mechanisms that keep the Dollar stable across the US, despite the wide variation in economic performance of the States within the Union that use it. Expect to see arch Europhiles renewing the argument for tax harmonization in the coming months.

On the other side, the Expansionists see a wider union as a means of preventing excessive integration, due to the sheer complexities involved. The Euro is, again, an excellent case in point. The single currency is demonstrably unworkable even within the core of nations that originally signed up to it. The chances of it ever becoming the currency of the entire Union are somewhere south of zero right now. That it became the currency of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the first place demonstrates not how well the Integrationists believed those economies were progressing, but just how badly the Integrationists wanted the project to succeed.

Nice explanation. However, all of that implies there's some method in the Euromadness. I'm of the opinion that the EU is a supertanker out of control in a minefield with a cross party committee at the helm... ;)

TheDaddy 27-06-2011 03:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35262911)
Fair enough - I don't see a problem with us discharging our responsibilities via the IMF, however it is quite right that we don't pay a double whammy along with the Eurozone countries. They chose to take part in this batty currency experiment. We had the good sense to stay out of it.

Where does the IMF get the cash from. Looks like our contribution may have gone up by £9 million to, so much for double whammys, if the Greeks could manage to sort out a decent method of income taxation they might not even need a bail out.

Britain's Treasury has been accused of sneaking through an extra contribution to the International Monetary Fund of £9.2billion.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...oars-22bn.html


Osem 28-06-2011 22:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Oh dear, the Greeks seem to have had enough of the old austerity measures. Presumably they feel a year or two of suffering is enough but given the scale of the problems they face, I think they need to get real and accept that the 'good times' are likely to be over for the foreseeable future. Those engaged in smashing up bits of Athens and rioting need to learn that it isn't going to solve anything, in fact it's likely to make matters even worse.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13935400

Tuftus 29-06-2011 08:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What would the rammifications of letting them go to the wall be?

denphone 29-06-2011 09:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuftus (Post 35265401)
What would the rammifications of letting them go to the wall be?

Very very serious l suspect.

Kymmy 29-06-2011 09:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Not really, if the Greek economy currency collapsed then they can;t exactly devalue the euro.. It would be a case of major and continued bail-out or dropping the euro and going back to the drachma..

If they dropped the euro then that would only increase the value of the euro for everyone else.. Until the next country has issues...

Tuftus 29-06-2011 09:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
For us, or just them?

Chris 29-06-2011 09:33

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
... which is why, prior to the single currency's launch, there were convergence criteria that were supposed to ensure that only economies of broadly similar performance and resilience could join it. The whole point was to prevent the Euro, or a weak economy, or both, being damaged by precisely the sort of train wreck we're seeing in Greece this week.

The single currency is an insane vanity project conceived and perpetrated by people who were prepared to fudge or entirely ignore their own rules just to see it launched. Their blinkered approach may yet be a significant factor in its failure.

denphone 29-06-2011 09:34

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35265418)
Not really, if the Greek economy currency collapsed then they can;t exactly devalue the euro.. It would be a case of major and continued bail-out or dropping the euro and going back to the drachma..

If they dropped the euro then that would only increase the value of the euro for everyone else.. Until the next country has issues...

It could be like a domino effect if this continues.

Kymmy 29-06-2011 09:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35265424)
It could be like a domino effect if this continues.

Show's how little you understand the issue..

If one country drops the euro then it'll strengthen the rest.. The "Next country" line was purely due to the continued recession and not the euro..

@Chris, You have to give them credit though that it lasted this long before one of them got into trouble.. There though always was going to be an issue with so many individual markets trying to link themselves to a single currency.. I would have thought that the simple fact that every country within europe will never give up their own governmental powers and totally default to a european central government for all aspects of rule would have meant that the euro could never be anything but an experiment..

I wonder if the european union will give a push to certain countries and force them to drop out and then at least the core countries from which the euro is stabilised will have a chance to continue??

Chris 29-06-2011 09:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35265431)
Show's how little you understand the issue..

If one country drops the euro then it'll strengthen the rest.. The "Next country" line was purely due to the continued recession and not the euro..

@Chris, You have to give them credit though that it lasted this long before one of them got into trouble.. There though always was going to be an issue with so many individual markets trying to link themselves to a single currency.. I would have thought that the simple fact that every country within europe will never give up their own governmental powers and totally default to a european central government for all aspects of rule would have meant that the euro could never be anything but an experiment..

I wonder if the european union will give a push to certain countries and force them to drop out and then at least the core countries from which the euro is stabilised will have a chance to continue??

I find it difficult to give credit to people who experiment on such a scale as to put the economy of an entire country at risk ... at the end of the day, the federalist ideologues in Brussels aren't going to lose their plush offices and chauffeur-driven cars. The ordinary people of Greece, on the other hand, are now royally shafted whichever way the house of cards that is the Euro decides to fall.

The logical argument for tax and economic policy convergence within the Eurozone is of course irresistible. As I said earlier, the Dollar only works across the USA because there's a federal government sitting above the individual state governments, running a federal economic policy which includes massive transfers of wealth from the states that make money (like California) to those that don't (like Alaska).

I'm not sure, however, that even France or Germany are quite ready to embrace such a level of harmonization, which I think means either that a 12-member Euro is going to continue to lurch from one crisis to another, or else a smaller Eurozone will have to be created, comprised of those economies that genuinely can cope with it (i.e. only those that should have qualified to be in it in the first place).

denphone 29-06-2011 09:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35265431)
Show's how little you understand the issue..

If one country drops the euro then it'll strengthen the rest.. The "Next country" line was purely due to the continued recession and not the euro..

@Chris, You have to give them credit though that it lasted this long before one of them got into trouble.. There though always was going to be an issue with so many individual markets trying to link themselves to a single currency.. I would have thought that the simple fact that every country within europe will never give up their own governmental powers and totally default to a european central government for all aspects of rule would have meant that the euro could never be anything but an experiment..

I wonder if the european union will give a push to certain countries and force them to drop out and then at least the core countries from which the euro is stabilised will have a chance to continue??

Well maybe but here are comments from the Bank of England committee and another one from the IMF chief.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/p...isis-1.1108419

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...=feeds-newsxml

Kymmy 29-06-2011 09:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Domino effect only has credence if they don't pull out of the euro and the other countries prop them up.. (I personally think that the other Eurozone countries will drop greece like a hot potato if it gets any worse)

You have to take articles in context and not as a blanket ;)

denphone 29-06-2011 10:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35265441)
Domino effect only has credence if they don't pull out of the euro and the other countries prop them up.. (I personally think that the other Eurozone countries will drop greece like a hot potato if it gets any worse)

You have to take articles in context and not as a blanket ;)

Well everybody to their own opinion but l am not sure the Eurozone countries will drop Greece as they are in this together or thats what they keep telling us.

Kymmy 29-06-2011 10:08

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
If the greek vote goes against austerity measures then it'll be interesting to see how the main core of Europe and also of the IMF reacts..

ATM the benefits of the EU and of the IMF are finely balanced, if this takes it over the edge then we could see some drastic measures.. Throwing Greece to the wolves might be the only option to keep the balance intact. Remember we are in a worldwide recession still and most countries will have their back-up plan for self survival..

Hugh 29-06-2011 11:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Interesting point from Robert Peston's blog
Quote:

Greece has what economists call a primary fiscal deficit, in that what it raises from taxes does not cover the basic running costs of the state, let alone its borrowing costs too.
And the banks can't be blamed for that, can they?

Not really a sound basis for going forward, is it?

Kymmy 29-06-2011 18:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well the Greek parliment have voted with common sense and passed the Austerity vote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13960947

Dai 29-06-2011 20:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35265772)
Well the Greek parliment have voted with common sense and passed the Austerity vote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13960947

Let's hope they do a better job than they have managed so far collecting taxes.

Tuftus 29-06-2011 22:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Agreed, but why do the Greek masses dissagree and riot?

Do they not see that they are broke and there is no choice?

Hugh 29-06-2011 22:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuftus (Post 35265884)
Agreed, but why do the Greek masses dissagree and riot?

Do they not see that they are broke and there is no choice?

The old "somebody else's problem" syndrome - why should they have to pay for their profligate spending (early retirement, high percentage of pay as pension, general tax avoidance).

staggie 30-06-2011 06:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
how about the moneys that greece makes from tourism whyb can that money not be used to help the people of greece and why cannot the fat cats in greece give up thier huge wages and live more sensibly like the rest of us

denphone 30-06-2011 06:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuftus (Post 35265884)
Agreed, but why do the Greek masses dissagree and riot?

Do they not see that they are broke and there is no choice?

Because the Greeks are very tempermental and and hot headed by nature.:)

Hugh 30-06-2011 06:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Actually, it is the fact that all levels of society have been avoiding paying taxes, not just the 'fat cats', and that Greece spent far more than it raised in taxes....

But hey - a class warrior never let's facts get in the way of a good diatribe, hey?

staggie 30-06-2011 06:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
im nota class warrior i just say when i think summats wrong
its not the working people of this counrty that hide money in tax havens and employ top accountents to find loop holes to avoid payying tax

Hugh 30-06-2011 08:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by staggie (Post 35265944)
im nota class warrior i just say when i think summats wrong
its not the working people of this counrty that hide money in tax havens and employ top accountents to find loop holes to avoid payying tax

As the kids say - ROFL......:D

I agree with you that everyone should pay their fair share of tax - however, avoiding paying tax is not illegal, evading it is...

Anyhoo, we were talking about Greece, where, as I stated, it isn't just the "fat cats", it is also the "working class" who avoid paying all the taxes they should....

Osem 30-06-2011 09:22

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quite right - tax evasion as opposed to avoidance is virtually endemic in Greece. To that extent, whilst I sympathise with the problems ordinary people there face, they are in part responsible for it in just the samne way that those here who helped inflate the credit bubble with spending based on borrowing against their homes.

Anonymouse 30-06-2011 15:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The whole business of domino effects is why I've never agreed with globalisation; whatever happens in Greece, a completely separate country from the UK, should not affect us, but of course it will. Local problems should be kept local. Globalisation's only good when things are going right - which, at present, they're not. Global trade by all means, but not a global economy.

Kymmy 30-06-2011 15:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What happens in Greece only effects the UK because we let it. I'm all for membership of the EU but it shouldn't mean that we bail out every country who can't see the mess that they put themselves in. The EU was originally a way of lowering borders to give easier travel, commerce between member countries, sorry to say that is now overshadowed by combined legislation and also support for countries that will never be in a position to ever offer us the same support.

---------- Post added at 15:23 ---------- Previous post was at 15:15 ----------

Greek MP's have now just passed the 2nd stages of Austerity laws.. Hopefully the rioters will see that they can't stop the changes as all they're doing is damaging Greece even more.

Osem 30-06-2011 16:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35266136)
What happens in Greece only effects the UK because we let it. I'm all for membership of the EU but it shouldn't mean that we bail out every country who can't see the mess that they put themselves in. The EU was originally a way of lowering borders to give easier travel, commerce between member countries, sorry to say that is now overshadowed by combined legislation and also support for countries that will never be in a position to ever offer us the same support.

---------- Post added at 15:23 ---------- Previous post was at 15:15 ----------

Greek MP's have now just passed the 2nd stages of Austerity laws.. Hopefully the rioters will see that they can't stop the changes as all they're doing is damaging Greece even more.

What happens in Greece affects us all because if it all goes pear shaped it will unduly affect what little confidence is left in the banking/financial system. Lack of confidence in financial systems ultimately leads to panic and chaos.

I too have a nasty feeling that if/when our time comes to knock on the ECB's and/or IMF's doors for a bail out they'll echo the words of Liam Byrne
and say:

Dear UK "I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left"..... :mad:

denphone 30-06-2011 16:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35266166)
What happens in Greece affects us all because if it all goes pear shaped it will unduly affect what little confidence is left in the banking/financial system. Lack of confidence in financial systems ultimately leads to panic and chaos.

I too have a nasty feeling that if/when our time comes to knock on the ECB's and/or IMF's doors for a bail out they'll echo the words of Liam Byrne
and say:

Dear UK "I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left"..... :mad:

Yes definitely if financial confidence goes then as you say the domino effect could then effect us all even though we are not in the Euro.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8508136.stm

Kymmy 30-06-2011 16:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35266166)
What happens in Greece affects us all because if it all goes pear shaped it will unduly affect what little confidence is left in the banking/financial system.

Personally I don;t think it will.. The situation in Greece isn't about banking instead it's about one countries problem with not only their inability to structure their own tax system correctly but also their link to other countries via a shared currency. If anything it should improve Britain's standing and the pound as a single currency.

Britain though does need to take a step back, put their foot down and state that yes we're happy to be part of Europe but not as the rich uncle/aunt who is forever coming to the rescue of the smaller states.. I wonder if the way things are going that the EU will become a two tier system with France, Germany, UK (and maybe one or two more) cutting funding links with the lower group and to some extent isolating themselves from those countries that see the EU as a charity. The EU should be a "club" of disinction and of economic harmony and membership should be restricted to those capable of adding to the collective as well as benefiting from it.

Dai 30-06-2011 17:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I was all for membership of the 'Common Market' which is what we voted for all those years ago.

Since then it's been hijacked to build a sort of Socialist European Empire.

It's high time some of this wasteful and corrupt system was dismantled. Maybe Greece will mark a start.

Osem 30-06-2011 21:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35266196)
Personally I don;t think it will.. The situation in Greece isn't about banking instead it's about one countries problem with not only their inability to structure their own tax system correctly but also their link to other countries via a shared currency. If anything it should improve Britain's standing and the pound as a single currency.

Britain though does need to take a step back, put their foot down and state that yes we're happy to be part of Europe but not as the rich uncle/aunt who is forever coming to the rescue of the smaller states.. I wonder if the way things are going that the EU will become a two tier system with France, Germany, UK (and maybe one or two more) cutting funding links with the lower group and to some extent isolating themselves from those countries that see the EU as a charity. The EU should be a "club" of disinction and of economic harmony and membership should be restricted to those capable of adding to the collective as well as benefiting from it.

The crisis isn't directly about banking but many major banks have massive interests in Greece and if those look threatened then obviously there'll be some doubt about how bad the damage will be and whether or not their interests in Spain, Ireland, Portugal will go the same way. Confidence in the financial markets is key since nobody wants to invest money unless they have confidence that it won't be lost. Lack of confidence = lack of investment = lack of growth.

I thin the EU aleady is 2 tier with the likes of France and Germany doing pretty much what they like at times and the rest following on behind. Sadly, I feel we're all so closely bound now that there's no way out without real pain - the best we can do is not get any further in.

nomadking 30-06-2011 21:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
On the other hand, if potential investors get scared off from investing in certain countries, they are more likely to invest in other more 'secure' countries(eg UK?) instead

Osem 30-06-2011 21:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35266374)
On the other hand, if potential investors get scared off from investing in certain countries, they are more likely to invest in other more 'secure' countries(eg UK?) instead

Spain, Ireland and Iceland were deemed 'secure' just a few years ago. The problem is that doubt simply breeds more doubt and coupled with the actions of predatory speculators (such as was the case in our very own ERM debacle) that can cause mayhem. You only have to look at the contrasting economic views of the UK to see that there are those who feel the UK is far from a secure bet and there's a great deal of bad news to come.

Overconfidence fuelled the dotcom boom and housing bubble. Lack of confidence, however, can cause fundamentally sound businesses to be driven to the wall or a run on the banks as was seen with Northern Crock. It can become self-fulfilling.

denphone 20-07-2011 05:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
According to this they say the only country that can save the EMU is Germany and l have to agree with that but we have to question whether Germany are really that committed to saving it in the long term.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-systemic.html

Kymmy 20-07-2011 07:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Very surprised that the Euro exchange rate hasn't been more effected.. since last month it's only moved a couple of cents down against the pound???

Osem 20-07-2011 09:34

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kymmy (Post 35275800)
Very surprised that the Euro exchange rate hasn't been more effected.. since last month it's only moved a couple of cents down against the pound???

Well Sterling isn't exactly deemed a safe haven right now. Even though we're not in the Euro we've got plenty of our own problems and a lot to lose if/when the Eurozone's wheels really come off.

Chris 20-07-2011 10:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35275788)
According to this they say the only country that can save the EMU is Germany and l have to agree with that but we have to question whether Germany are really that committed to saving it in the long term.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-systemic.html

The German people are quite rightly asking themselves why they should be expected to pay for the whole party. If the German government is not committed to bailing out the Euro indefinitely then it perhaps means they are finally listening to the voices of the people that elect them.

denphone 20-07-2011 11:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35275884)
The German people are quite rightly asking themselves why they should be expected to pay for the whole party. If the German government is not committed to bailing out the Euro indefinitely then it perhaps means they are finally listening to the voices of the people that elect them.

Its a pity that more politicians do not listen to the voices that elected them then perhaps they would not get into the mess that they do seem to get themselves constantly in.

TheDaddy 20-07-2011 11:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35275884)
The German people are quite rightly asking themselves why they should be expected to pay for the whole party. If the German government is not committed to bailing out the Euro indefinitely then it perhaps means they are finally listening to the voices of the people that elect them.

The German people are benefiting from the debt crisis, their exports are booming + they'll get their cash back at some point.

Ignitionnet 20-07-2011 12:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Germany have done well from the Eurozone, it's kept their exports cheap for a while.

No way they'll get their money back directly. The only thing that'll rescue the Eurozone now is probably full fiscal union. That will trigger referendums and cause constitutional problems in Germany.

EDIT: This does assume it's not sneaked in via the back door of course.

Osem 21-07-2011 22:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Leaders of the Eurozone countries have agreed a new bailout package for Greece worth 109bn euros ($155bn, £96.3bn).

It includes, for the first time, support from private lenders, including banks, which will give Greece easier repayment terms.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14239794

I'd say it's throwing good money after bad - if there was such a thing as 'good money' anymore.

This thing is going to get seriously out of hand!

Damien 21-07-2011 22:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
From the brief reports I have read the bailout has had a cautiously optimistic reception from some economists. They seem to think it will work but at the cost (or gain) of closer fiscal ties amongst the Eurozone countries.

Osem 21-07-2011 22:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35276598)
From the brief reports I have read the bailout has had a cautiously optimistic reception from some economists. They seem to think it will work but at the cost (or gain) of closer fiscal ties amongst the Eurozone countries.

I'm no economist and even I 'know' it isn't going to work. Greece and the other countries who were admitted to the Eurozone need to be removed from it before this thing really gets out of hand.

My wife's just come back from Slovakia - she reports massive price inflation since she was last there just a few years ago. The false Eurocrat promise of western affluence for all has only led to prices going through the roof whilst wages stagnate......

Damien 21-07-2011 22:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35276603)
I'm no economist and even I 'know' it isn't going to work. Greece and the other countries who were admitted to the Eurozone need to be removed from it before this thing really gets out of hand.

My wife's just come back from Slovakia - she reports massive price inflation since she was last there just a few years ago. The false Eurocrat promise of western affluence for all has only led to prices going through the roof whilst wages stagnate......

My understanding was that if Greece were to leave the Eurozone they would effectively end up defaulting on all their debts which would trigger a crisis in Spain and Italy. Then probably Ireland and so on.

Osem 21-07-2011 22:34

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35276608)
My understanding was that if Greece were to leave the Eurozone they would effectively end up defaulting on all their debts which would trigger a crisis in Spain and Italy. Then probably Ireland and so on.

I think it's called the lesser of two evils. The Eurocrats are in denial. Does anyone really think this money will ever be repaid?

Damien 21-07-2011 22:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35276610)
I think it's called the lesser of two evils. The Eurocrats are in denial. Does anyone really think this money will ever be repaid?

The banks are effectively writing off some of it. It's meant to be a kind of default that isn't really a default - some money will never come back. I find the whole issue quite difficult as I haven't followed it closely and there is a seemingly endless depth of history to the issue.

Again, My understanding is they consider this path to be the lesser of two evils. They would rather save Greece than let them fall and trigger a full blown crisis across Europe. If Greece exposed the Italian and Spanish banks, which are already on the verge, then there are more countries (such as us!) which are exposed to them and so on.

At the same time they seem to be giving themselves an awful lot of power other the currency and each other's economies.

One commentator said they had a choice to grow apart or enter a more closer union. They took the 2nd option.

Osem 22-07-2011 09:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35276615)
The banks are effectively writing off some of it. It's meant to be a kind of default that isn't really a default - some money will never come back. I find the whole issue quite difficult as I haven't followed it closely and there is a seemingly endless depth of history to the issue.

Again, My understanding is they consider this path to be the lesser of two evils. They would rather save Greece than let them fall and trigger a full blown crisis across Europe. If Greece exposed the Italian and Spanish banks, which are already on the verge, then there are more countries (such as us!) which are exposed to them and so on.

At the same time they seem to be giving themselves an awful lot of power other the currency and each other's economies.

One commentator said they had a choice to grow apart or enter a more closer union. They took the 2nd option.

IMHO trying to save Greece is exactly what could bring the whole lot down and it doesn't surprise me one jot that those whose singleminded obssession has got us to where we are, still refuse to accept reality. So far as I can see, wasting vast sums trying to bail out a country which should never have been allowed into the Eurozone sets a dangerous precedent and only means there's less available to deal with the problems of the bigger economies which really could be the tipping point.

As intriguing as the NOTW scandal is, I really can't understand why it's occupying so much political and media time when we're on the verge of an almighty financial crash which will have very grave consequences for us all.

TheDaddy 23-07-2011 07:14

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35276682)
As intriguing as the NOTW scandal is, I really can't understand why it's occupying so much political and media time when we're on the verge of an almighty financial crash which will have very grave consequences for us all.

It's occupying so much media time because that's what they think people want to see/read and to a degree they are right, some one said the other day that on the front page of The Sun or Star from way back the headlines went in this order: Gazza dropped from World Cup squad, Geri leaves Spice Girls and India + Pakistan on brink of Nuclear war, there in a nutshell all what's wrong with our media.

Osem 23-07-2011 09:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35277135)
It's occupying so much media time because that's what they think people want to see/read and to a degree they are right, some one said the other day that on the front page of The Sun or Star from way back the headlines went in this order: Gazza dropped from World Cup squad, Geri leaves Spice Girls and India + Pakistan on brink of Nuclear war, there in a nutshell all what's wrong with our media.

...and it's occupying so much political time because the people who got us into this mess would rather pretend it's not happening for as long as they can. ;)

Ignitionnet 23-07-2011 13:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Regardless of what happens we're being lashed to the mast, and certainly not being asked if we're happy about it.

Europe could be the issue that breaks this coalition, Cameron can only pander to the Euro-sycophant Clegg and ignore both a large swathe of his own party and a large swathe of the population for so long.

As far as Clegg goes given he claims to be a Liberal Democrat he should be all in favour of a plebiscite.

Tezcatlipoca 23-07-2011 20:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Greece forced to abandon the Euro in favour of Paypal

Quote:

In an attempt to stem their growing debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund has told Greece it must abandon the Euro in favour of the more restrictive Paypal.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, told reporters, ”We think Greece deserves a second chance, but they also need to learn the value of money, to stop this happening again.”

“So we’ve agreed to pay off their debts, and we’ve stuck 50 quid in an electronic account for them – but they now know we can see how they spend it.”

Following the announcement, the major financial markets rose by an average of 10 points, but eBay jumped by 46%.
Greece turns to Paypal

Greece has embraced its new-found financial independence, and after buying an antique olive stoner from Italy to gain some positive feedback, Greece successfully sold a bottle of Ouzo and 3 tonnes of baklava, and has earned a little yellow star.

Even after Paypal fees, the economy is looking rosier than ever.

There are dangers for the emerging Power Trader, and Greece only narrowly avoided being conned out of 2 months of walnut production by Nigeria.

“It was very close”, explained George Papandreou, the president and password holder for ‘Zorba1340′.

“Fortunately, we got an email warning against trading outside the market, and we just managed to stop the shipment as their Worldpay payment was reversed. I’ve reported them to ebay: it’s the last time we deal with a country that has less than 5-star feedback.”

(snip)

Osem 03-08-2011 17:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has described the bond markets' treatment of Italy and Spain as "a cause of deep concern.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14385636

All that printing money and lending borrowed money doesn't seem to be working does it.....

chris9991 03-08-2011 18:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35282700)
All that printing money and lending borrowed money doesn't seem to be working does it.....

Maybe they need to print/lend more:(

denphone 06-08-2011 05:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Europe cries out for leadership and courage as global share sell-off continues.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-2332654.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-disaster.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...e-to-fall.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...decisions.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ing-again.html

devilincarnate 10-08-2011 19:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Looks like it it is getting closer to home?

Quote:

European and US stock markets have suffered more large falls, led by steep declines in banking shares.

In nervous trading, the focus turned to France, where the French government denied it would follow the US and lose its top-grade AAA credit rating.

Societe Generale bank, whose shares fell up to 20%, was also forced to deny it was under financial pressure.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14472079

Osem 20-09-2011 10:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well it hasn't gone away yet....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14981718

Quote:

Italy has had the rating of its creditworthiness cut, the latest move in the European debt crisis.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14968090

Quote:

World share markets have fallen, and oil and the euro are also down, on fresh worries about a Greek default.
Has anyone in Euroland got their head out of the sand?

Chris 20-09-2011 10:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Every time I see this thread title, I just think

The Eurozone will collapse...
The Pandorica will open...
Silence will fall...

:spin:
:D

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:47 ----------

On topic, the BBC News website is using a superb picture of Silvo as the still on top of its video clip for this news item. He's sitting on a gilded, velvet-lined throne that makes him look like a Godfather. :D

denphone 22-10-2011 12:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
UK Chancellor George Osborne has said the eurozone debt crisis is a "real danger" to all of Europe as he arrived for a summit in Brussels.



Quote:

"The crisis of the eurozone is a real danger to all of Europe's economies, including Britain."


Quote:

BBC business editor Robert Peston said that new forecasts from the bailout lenders - the so-called "troika" - showed that the current plan to revive the Greek economy had failed.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15414168

Dai 22-10-2011 12:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Every western economy seems to be borrowing money hand over fist. But where does that money come from?

Can anyone point me to a simple explanation of this system as it seems to me as a financial innocent that there must be a magic money tree somewhere.

denphone 22-10-2011 12:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaiNasty (Post 35319715)
Every western economy seems to be borrowing money hand over fist. But where does that money come from?

Can anyone point me to a simple explanation of this system as it seems to me as a financial innocent that there must be a magic money tree somewhere.

Somehow l don't see a magic money tree coming to the rescue here.:)

Kingofthedead4 22-10-2011 12:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
If there was a magic money tree, the council would have cut it down by now to make room for a new house.

Chris 22-10-2011 13:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaiNasty (Post 35319715)
Every western economy seems to be borrowing money hand over fist. But where does that money come from?

Can anyone point me to a simple explanation of this system as it seems to me as a financial innocent that there must be a magic money tree somewhere.

Somebody posted a link to an excellent documentary a month or so ago. I just can't remember who it was, what site the video was on, or which thread they posted in. :spin:

It is just over an hour long and explains how the system works, and how it began to be the way it is (basically why banks are allowed to invent money and lend it to us, legally, whereas we can't buy a printing press and invent our own money without going to jail).

If anyone else remembers where this video is to be found, please post - I still need to watch the last 10 minutes or so. Wish I could remember!

chris9991 22-10-2011 13:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Was that the money as debt video(s)?

Jameseh 22-10-2011 13:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
All they need is one quick phone call to debtmatters and within minutes they'll be out of the red and into the black.


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 11:46.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.