The future for linear TV channels
 

There has been debate on these forums about whether streaming and on demand services will ever replace linear TV channels. One of the things that has often been said is that there will always be a need for live television programmes, the implication being that you cannot show live stuff on demand.

Well, this may change your minds!

http://advanced-television.com/2015/...ews-programme/

BBC debuts digital-first news programme

The BBC has revealed plans for a new daytime show broadcast simultaneously on BBC Two, the BBC News Channel and online and focusing on breaking news, exclusive interviews and audience interaction.

The show – to be hosted by award-winning journalist Victoria Derbyshire – will develop innovative and creative ways to engage with the audience on TV, online and via social media – bringing a greater variety of stories to BBC News, and becoming the first ‘digital-first’ TV news programme, with each video being designed for an online audience first.

It will be hosted from London, but will feature regular debates around the country and draw on reporting expertise from across BBC News. It is the first time a daily programme commissioned by the News Channel will run on network television.

James Harding, Director of BBC News and Current Affairs, said the programme would be the centrepiece of domestic daytime TV news. “In the year ahead, on the most important stories – the future shape of the UK, the health of the global economy – our audiences will rightly expect us to be at the very top of our game. With these new programmes, and their commitment to bringing new perspectives and powerful story-telling, we will be very well placed to meet this challenge.

The programme will launch on 7 April. For its first four weeks, it will focus on the General Election, featuring live debates and key interviews.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well it won't change my mind as linear TV is going nowhere.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Yes, Den, but if you can go to BBC1, ITV, Channel 4 etc, and pick from today's programmes, with live ones appearing when the performance begins (be it news, sport, or whatever), why would this not be better than having to put up with all those adverts, and apart from the live programmes, with the added advantage of not having to wait for a particular time for them to start?

What a time saving that would be!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Same here and there will always be live events. I have to watch sport live when possible.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

But you can watch it live on demand! That's what will happen with the new BBC programme.

If the linear channels no longer broadcast in that way but on demand, it would put you in control of what you watched, when. Why is that a bad thing?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

But it wouldn't be on demand would it? It'd just be a live tv channel broadcasting on the Internet? Or am I totally misunderstanding this hahah

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

No your correct , nothing groundbreaking there.

A show broadcast on two linear channels and online , Sky and VM already do this with their respective TV anywhere offerings.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

But if the linear channels were all replaced by VOD, this would be a step change in the way that people watched TV.

By the time this happens, the existing STBs will all be capable of linking with the internet, and this may well become the standard way of viewing.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Do they need to be replace it though? Couldn't both just co exist? Bbc has iplayer, Netflix exists, 4 on demand etc? Bbc launched a new show purely on iplayer didn't they recently? But I think whilst that's good for some people they'll always prefer a live tv channel.

Both could and probably should co exist?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

So essentially any live events have there own channels, possibly streaming, and are shown live. All other content is available on demand, and that's how everybody will consume their TV.

Think about what a massive change that is from what we have now, what would be required in terms of bandwidth for 60m people to consume content in this way when 4m Virgin customers can't even watch I player properly currently, and then honestly tell me you think this is going to happen any time soon.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Call me cynical but I wonder if it's just a coincidence that the BBC charter is up for renewal soon.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

How is this different? You can watch a number of live channels via TV anywhere anyway. They are just making a daft statement about how they have embraced the internet. I can't see the BBC or ITV letting us binge watch our favourite shows like Netflix do. Imagine how quickly Broadchurch 2 would be ruined for people who have Facebook/Twitter etc but could not see it all in one go. The ending of Broadchurch would be discussed straight away on the internet and at work the day after. They will just continue drip feed the episodes. Just how are ITV and C4 supposed to survive without advertising? Also how on earth are BBC etc going to film large chunks of their programmes in a small period of time just to stick them online, they have much more content to produce than Netflix. You must also remember there are millions and millions of young families who can not afford the luxury of VOD providers, or the content bundled in with the packages Sky, VM etc, who rely on linear TV. I am in my 30's and I do not see linear TV disappearing in my lifetime. Don't get me wrong, I watch very little live, I manage my recordings just so I can skip the adverts. I know plenty of people who still watch TV live though.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It will never happen, because it is a solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

VOD is great for people who want that choice. It is an inconvenience for those that do not.

TV schedules are a simple, elegant solution to the problem of what to watch when you come home from work, slump in front of the TV and can't be bothered to make any choices beyond switching it on and seeing what's on the first page of the EPG. To those people, increas choice would be a problem, not a solution.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Won't happen, and, TBH, despite all the hype, it appears the BBC isn't actually doing anything with this programme they aren't already doing with others. They've certainly done news reports specifically for the website and various BBC news apps. They also have parts of programmes where they interact with the audience, although other channels do this.

Don't get me wrong, the BBC are innovative, and (IMO) beat the commercial broadcasters hands down when it comes to embracing new technologies.

That does not mean that VOD will ever totally replace linear channels, and I don't think it should. STBs may well all be capable of linking with the Internet, but how would people who don't wish to have an STB or do not have reliable broadband internet access watch TV? Do you think they should be deprived of TV because you are seeing a problem that isn't there?

Regarding adverts, before you think about how annoying you find them, remember that they *do* pay a lot of the costs of the programmes you watch. If you remove the adverts, the companies are going to need to get their money in some way.

I know that the likes of Netflix are predicting the end of Linear TV, but before you believe them, bear in mind it's in their interest to have people thinking that. If Linear TV ends, where are they going to go? Most likely Netflix or Amazon Prime Video.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The BBC have already said they'll possibly make certain content available on iplayer before its aired on linear , Sky already does this with the first episode of most of its shows via Sky On Demand and Sky Go.

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see more content made available via On Demand early , possibly even full series in one go that said this is more to appease the younger audience who prefer On Demand/Online viewing than to replace linear.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I hope so as you don't need to pay the TV tax for on demand stuff :Sprint:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Spot on Chris.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

For now. IMO, if the BBC are trying to talk up their online/streaming services then it is only with a view to extending the tv tax to cover it.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

As many have said linear will continue on , the two will coexist along side each other.

It seems more and more players are looking to get into original content only today we've seen Sony PlayStation announce a new original , Youtube have also announced its desire and Amazon Instant have also confirmed they'll move into movies.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

How are they going to enforce it considering there are plenty of ways to watch content online. If they use some form of login that is so easy to get around and there are plenty of channels transmitting stuff from the bbc that are overseas ;)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Who said you can't show live stuff on demand, its hardly new....? The first live on demand show was a boxing match on Sky Box Office and that was probably 20 years ago.

As for linear tv, it will always be around in some form, but I would turn things around a bit and say that linear tv shows will always be around. What I mean by this is that it is the tv show/film/content that is the most important not who broadcasts it or streams it.

If Amazon somehow got the rights to stream Coronation Street live, I'd imagine Amazon would get a "few" new subscribers. Of course not everyone likes soaps or has internet access, but millions do and would go when they can get their favourite show. If Amazon then got the rights to Emerdale and Ex Factor and other top ITV shows, that would be the end of ITV. The broadcaster is not important, it is content that is king and the people who are behind the content, especially the writers/creators of it.

Another obvious example being Game Of Thrones, which has never been shown on normal tv, yet is the most talked about show of recent years. Breaking Bad another example, which has never been shown in the UK on any channel. People go where the shows are.

I expect things will eventually shift towards portals where writers and actors come together with funding via p2p lending bypassing traditional broadcasters including the current new kids on the block like Netflix and Amazon. And their shows will be put on these portals for everyone to see.

Oh and as for the new BBC magazine show, its all been done before. There's nothing new except you'll have people tweeting in, or commenting on facebook, or calling in live via Skype. Not Earth shattering by a long shot.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Breaking Bad's earlier episodes were shown on FX (now Fox) and 5 USA in the UK I believe before being dropped.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Except of course that ITV owns Coronation Street and Emmerdale, and isn't ever going to sell them.

Besides that, the idea of writers and actors collaborating then pitching to distributors already happens. You can see it every time one of them has an executive producer credit on the closing titles. Private production companies pitch to distributors all the time. Endemol devises game shows, sells their formats round the world and re-produces them for each customer. Shine Group and its subsidiaries create all kinds of drama (Spooks, Ashes to Ashes, Broadchurch to name but three) and pitches the ideas to distributors. The thing is, the distributors are always, with extremely few exceptions, TV broadcasters. The production companies want this, because the broadcasters have the big audiences and therefore the big budgets.

Showing a programme at 7pm on a midwinter Saturday evening, when almost the entire country is sitting in front of the TV and, thanks to its habit of watching linear TV throughout the week, has been suitably primed to expect fireworks, is always, always going to result in a big, reliable return on the money invested in its production. Putting it on a VOD platform on the other hand, is as good as hiding it from all but the most ardent fan. I would love to know how many views Ripper Street has had, for example, having been ditched by the BBC and then revived by Amazon as a publicity stunt for its Prime instant video service. I bet it won't be nearly as many as it gets when the BBC broadcasts it later this year.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Companies such as Endemol and Shine aren't tiny little companies owned by the writers but are owned by the very distributors you mention, which in their case is Murdoch. I agree Murdoch and co are the ones with the big bucks, hence my remark about future funding of shows/films through p2p lenders.

In the future you might get a writer such as Carlton Cruze (creator of Lost) going onto a sci-fi portal which has Lost on it and he pitches to the subscribers of the site for funding for a new show he wants to do bypassing the big studios altogether. If a million subscribers donate a dollar, he gets enough dosh to make a decent pilot which may then be made into a full tv show. If the portal is worldwide, it will be far larger than any national tv channel.

I don't see linear tv going altogether, but I think things will change. You cite a programme on a Saturday at 7pm which gets large audiences. If you compare the size of audiences for prime time shows these days as to what they were thirty years ago, its clear which way things are going. It is very unlikely that any tv show today could get an audience of 20 million people which used to be the norm thrity years ago.

I agree with your Ripper Street example, but that's the same as what we have now with hundreds of linear tv channels and new shows are difficult to find amongst them all. I think better software will sort this out (super tivo??) to guide viewers to new shows.

I know ITV owns the shows I mentioned, but many of its popular shows beyond Corrie and Emmerdale are not owned by ITV and in most cases are either owned either by Murdoch, Sony, or one of the other US studios.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Linar tv will remain but what is happening is the way we are watching tv is changing.
We will see more services along the way of the upcoming dish sling tv (usa only), sony vue tv (us and uk) Sky already offer Skygo on a monthly ticket without the need to be a Sky subscriber, tv is changing no doubt about that.
We will see more and more cable cutters and linar tv will only be a handful of channels plus live sports, however the way we watch live sports is changing too with the Premier league already considering a streaming service with 3pm kick off matches, wwe network, eurosport player.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Er no, in the case of Shine or Endemol operating in the UK, the "distributors" are BBC, ITV and Channel 4, who "distribute" via broadcast, and then via DVD, a concept which has been pitched to them, then commissioned and paid for by them.

Shine devises shows like Ashes to Ashes (actually its subsidiary, Kudos, was responsible for that one), and pitches it at the BBC, which either rejects or commissions it. The programme doesn't get made unless someone has commissioned it because it is too damned expensive to do otherwise - hence the major problem with the arrangement you're proposing. Nobody is ever going to produce something like Lost based on the interest of a collective of sci fi fans. The up front costs are eye-watering. Only a major TV broadcaster has that kind of money, or possibly a major online company with a massive advertising budget.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I'd be very surprised if the DVD sales of Ashes to Ashes went into the BBC's coffers rather than Murdoch who is the owner of the show. The BBC may well have put up the dosh to commission it and show it on their channel initially, but they do not own it and are not the distributor. They pay for first run rights and that's it.

Regarding new shows like the next Lost, excuse the pun here, but I think you're thinking linear here.:)

Imagine a sci-fi portal with hundreds of millions of subscribers/viewers. They could easily fund big budget shows. Say if the site was charging a fee similar to Netflix, the site might directly fund shows if there was enough votes cast. I think the funding could come come via several different methods, but I'd imagine the old billionaire codgers who run the big media companies/studios will still be in control for some time yet.

Edit: Just had a look who does deal with the DVDs for Ashes to Ashes and its neither the BBC or Murdoch, but a company called Entertainment One whom I've never heard of until now.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Entertainment One has DVD distribution expertise that neither BBC Worldwide nor Kudos can presumably be bothered to develop in-house.

You really are understating the BBC's role in the production of a show like Ashes. At the time of commissioning, the show's success is not guaranteed. The first-run broadcaster is taking an immense financial gamble and will seek to offset that by securing as many income streams from it as possible (even at the BBC, where these days they are expected to show they're getting value for the licence fee). In return for its investment, the broadcaster is getting repeat rights and, I guarantee you, a cut of DVD sales. The prominent "as seen on the BBC" flash (including logo) on the front of even the most recent re-issue of the Ashes box set is the giveaway.

Your sci fi portal idea does indeed require imagination. It really is a fantasy. There is simply no way such an organisation could raise the kind of funds required, nor could it provide the kind of executive oversight required to keep production on time and on schedule. Individuals with that sort of expertise are not cheap.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Hi, Vince. Yes, they could co-exist. However, others think that eventually most people will take the view that it is easier to pick the programmes you want to see, and view them without all the ads at a time which is convenient to them.

By the time the vast majority of people get used to doing just that, the number of linear channels will decrease due to the declining demand.

---------- Post added at 12:41 ---------- Previous post was at 12:34 ----------

Ah, you are assuming that under the scenario painted that when a series like Broadchurch becomes available, you will be able to see every episode straight away.

However, I suspect that we will move to a new schedule each day for each channel, with a catch up facility (or maybe all programmes would move to the cloud for future viewing, replacing the need to record).

So each day, each broadcaster would list all the programmes that will be shown on that day, and from the appointed time would become available to view. This would be so much more convenient for people who do not view at conventional times (eg night workers and shift workers).

Linear TV may survive, I agree, but I think new ways of watching TV will become prevalent over time and the way we view now will seem pretty primitive.

The main issue will be how these programmes are funded in the future. It will be for the broadcasters to work out new funding streams, but I would imagine that subscriptions will bring the majority of the income for the commercial channels. This can be boosted by other income streams, such as programme sponsorship, advertising on programme guides, product placement, etc.

---------- Post added at 12:47 ---------- Previous post was at 12:41 ----------

Some Forum members have questioned how live sport can be shown via on demand. I am just making the point that it is perfectly possible, just as you can view a programme currently being broadcast and recorded on your STB.

I have not suggested that these programmes will all be taken up by the likes of Amazon and Netflix. You will still find them under the TV station's own portal.

I know the BBC magazine show idea has been done before, but you need to ask yourself why the BBC are making a big thing of this. There is an agenda!

---------- Post added at 12:50 ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 ----------

Not if all the channels can be accessed only by on demand! In fact, you've probably just made the case for abolishing linear TV!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You can already do your suggestion , set a recording leave it 10 mins and watch time shifted fast forwarding the ads.

How can live sport be On Demand , I think your getting confused with live sport broadcast and being streamed online at the same time , this is already done by Sky Sports and BT Sport plus many others.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Streaming certainly works, but is there a technical reason why it can't work on demand? Similar principle to what you can do with a recording on your set top box.

Incidentally, you don't need to leave your recording for 10 minutes before watching it. You can watch it as soon as the title appears on 'My Shows' on the TIVO. You can also watch it straight away on the V+ from memory.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

As you can on just about every PVR , how would you fast forward the ads by this method though considering you'd be virtually watching live ?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

What?!

I appreciate you think you've been quite clever here, but I'm afraid you're going to have to spell it out for the sake of us dullards.

What incentive do TV channels that, by law, occupy the first five channel numbers on all broadcast platforms serving the UK, have to abandon those channel slots and simply become one streaming player brand among many?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

BIB, So the broadcasters could list all the programs available on a daily basis, at a certain time. Sounds rather a lot like what happens now with EPG's and TV guides. If only there was a system in place which people who work shifts could shifts find a way to record a show and watch at convenient time for them. Oh wait, there already is.

Lets also say, I work a 5am - 8pm shift (not uncommon in food retail) and I do not get to see when Broadchurch becomes available to watch ahead of linear tv. I then go on the internet to see what is happening in the world and see a host of posts/stories about the show, all because I did not know when the show could be downloaded. What should I do in that instance, stay off the internet just incase my viewing pleasure is ruined? As it stands, if I miss Broadchurch, I know to steer clear of certain sites until I have caught up with it.

With regards to the other revenue streams, why would ITV want to risk crippling their revenue stream when it works well for them currently? What purpose would it serve them to offer their shows on demand with no adverts? What other revenue streams are available to them? Charity contributions? Bank loans?

Don't get me wrong, linear TV may well die off in the next 20 years, I just can not see it happening.

I love a good debate on here, but I think your argument is massively flawed. The TV companies have a good deal going for them, nothing is really broken with the system and I can't see why they would risk losing their revenue stream from adverts. Netflix etc will continue to be a nice luxury for those who can afford it and the two different ways of watch TV will stay exactly the same.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Not a problem on a BBC channel though!

I agree that if you were watching a programme 'live' on demand, you would have to put up with the adverts if the programme was provided by a commercial channel with ads. However, by watching it later, you could fast forward through them.

---------- Post added at 12:46 ---------- Previous post was at 12:39 ----------

As more and more people find other ways of watching programmes, including many who currently record first what they want to watch and then skip the ads, the revenue from advertising will decline anyway, and there will come a point where an alternative method of funding will need to be found.

Your logic is not quite right, because you have ignored the fact that you can already watch all your programmes through catch up, which is not peppered with advertisements. The TV channels have gone into this voluntarily, they can see where all this is leading.

Regarding the programmes being listed to start at a certain time, I put it this way to take account of the 'live programming' argument, but there is nothing to stop the TV channels from loading up all the programmes at the start of the day that could be viewed immediately, apart from the live stuff.

The arguments you make are fair enough, but they do not prevent the scenario I describe, or something like it, from happening. They are simply considerations that need to be thought through.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Am I missing something here ? How can you watch something 'live' On Demand ?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The same way as you watch something live (or near live) from your recordings, I guess.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

They are online (apart from the BBC).

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

4OD is a nightmare for adverts when it works lol, demand5 and itv you can use adblock+ to get around the adverts though.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well there you go, where there's a will, there's a way!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

So not live , nearly live ;)

Doesn't iplayer have a live restart button ? Not sure if its only on computer version.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, apart from 4OD ;)

I see no point in putting Freeview channels on streaming only. The current over the air broadcasting is cheap and efficient and practical for the consumer, enabling time shifting and advert skipping.

If the commercial channels were online only, they'd make sure that Joe Public couldn't skip the adds, as that is part of the funding to make the programmes. Sure, people who visit forums like this would likely find a way, but they are an extremely small minority.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Isn't this similar to what they do with the likes of Glastonbury coverage anyway?

I don't see the difference.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

A friend has just moved to Hong Kong. He can only get non-linear TV. On a 500Mb connection that costs £20 per month (1Gb costs a whopping £30!).

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, you got me there, but we are only talking about the odd second delay, similar to the time lags experienced between different TV sets.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Still think its pretty pointless if your desperate to watch you can tune in live , slightly delayed via PVR or On Demand which arrives generally pretty quick after broadcast.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I was just trying to explain that if linear channels were withdrawn, live viewing was still possible.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

If live viewing is still desirable, then linear broadcasting is the simplest and most efficient way to deliver it ...

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Exactly.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

sometimes, the simplest thing is life is to be given a shortlist of what to watch at an appropiate time, thats what linear does for me, if given too much choice I waste far too much time going through sky movies app (lets face it the searching function of movies on VM is dross) Finally making a choice of what to watch from the selection and before you know it you made shortlist etc and an hour lost of your life, a whole hour!

life too short buts hey thats me

interesting discussion though btw

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I have to agree. Part of what I can't stand about Netflix is trawling through hundreds of shows. It's not that I'm indecisive, but sometimes it's nice to have the decision made for you. I think the op is suggesting the solution to a problem that simply doesn't exist.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I find that checking 'recently added to Netflix' type sites and subscribing to forum threads that recommend titles on Netflix helps with that.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Cheers for advice. I've taken to googling what's currently good on Netflix in the past. I don't find the "recommended for you" suggestions that great.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Quite correct. There is nothing wrong with the way it works currently. There is no need to recreate the wheel. Even if things did ever change and we had the choice of on demand or sticking to the listings, I would still keep to the listings. I don't mind a bit of binge watching now and a gain, but the anticipation of waiting for the next episode is all part of the fun for me.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I said possible, not desirable!

I'm not the one suggesting that withdrawing the linear channels is a good idea, I'm just commenting on what I think is coming.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I know - but I'm giving reasons why I think it's *not* coming. Linear broadcast is a simple, efficient means of content delivery that, at peak viewing periods, satisfies an audience consisting of almost half the entire population of the country. It just works.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I think if you read your first three posts on this thread it does look like you're arguing for it to happen.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I understand why you would say that, but actually I was trying to get to the bottom of why some of us on here are so against it.

I've concluded that it's just that it's easy to get stuck in your own ways of doing things.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Lol,"stuck in your own ways of doing things"? It could be that, or it could just be that I prefer the current system. I will enjoy binge watching House Of Cards next month, but I am enjoying the wait between Broadchurch episodes more. It allows me to think about the show and all it's intricacies when I am bored lumping stock out at work.

BTW, I am not against it, as long the companies allow us to watch/record the shows as we currently do. I will be happy for those who want shows "on-demand".

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Has ITV Player introduced HD content to the online version ? ITV Player on Sky now offers quite a lot of the content in HD.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Rarely use itv player mate last time i used it was back in October last year, there was no hd then.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It's not about being stuck in my ways, I can't see how the scenario you're outlining is better. I, and everybody, would need a stable unlimited broadband connection, to know that there weren't capacity issues in my area and that we'd always have speeds capable of delivering hd telly. We would have no choice to access tv but to pay the licence fee AND a broadband subscription, and that's before you take into account that literally everybody else in the country would be doing the same. You think evening is peak time for broadband now?

Not only is it a long long way off, we already have a system that works, backed up well by internet based solutions. Wanting to keep it isn't a case of being stuck in our ways! It's an acknowledgement that things are already pretty good.

If your question is what's wrong with moving to the system you've outlined then I think your question is wrong. It should be what's right with it? And I think part of the answer is that we are simply nowhere near the infrastructure, or the desire, or even the necessity, required.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, I would say that the situation I have described is better because you don't have to be a slave to the decisions of the programme schedulers - you can see the programme whenever you want to - and you don't have to put up with all those advertisements.

I appreciate that there are things that need to be sorted out first, such as giving everyone access to broadband at an appropriate speed, but I do think that this is about 10 years + away. I'm sure it will come, though.

Incidentally, don't most people pay a broadband subscription already? And if there has to be a TV licence, it is only fair that anyone with access to BBC programmes should pay it.

That's not to say that I necessarily agree with the TV licence, by the way!

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:41 ----------

Yes Harry, but there's nothing to prevent you from leaving a week between viewing from a list of programmes on the schedule.

I have watched House of Cards, Breaking Bad and Orange is the New Black on Netflix, but I didn't 'binge watch' them just because the whole series was on there. I watched a programme every week.

That's me set in my ways!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Pvr's offer the solution to "being a slave" to the schedules and having to put up with adverts. Adverts, of course, would be unavoidable on a wholly streaming based system.

And I don't know if "most" people pay a broadband susbscription already, but I know my grandmother doesn't, and I'm struggling to see why she should suddenly have to in order to continue watching tv.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Slight :bump:

Colin Callender, the former president of HBO and executive producer of BBC2's Wolf Hall, says linear TV has plenty of life left in it yet:

http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-...ormer-hbo-boss

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well I suppose he would say that, wouldn't he?

I expect everything will look so different in 2025.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You are again vastly overplaying the demise of linear TV OB and whether you like it or not and l get the impression you don't linear TV is here to stay for a extremely long period well into the future.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

So how different from 2005 does today look?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, there has been a huge take up in video on demand viewing, and streaming is rapidly becoming the norm.

A more relevant date to compare with is 15 years ago in 2,000 when all viewing was via broadcast TV and videotape. However, things are speeding up considerably now in the digital age, and I maintain that things will look very different in another ten years time.

Incidentally, I have nothing against linear TV at all as long as I have the choice to view things as I do now. I am simply pointing out that the days of linear TV are numbered in my view.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Is streaming rapidly becoming the norm? It is being used more, but it is far from becoming the norm. Again, you must take into account the many millions of families who either can't afford such luxuries or don't care about streaming services.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sorry, but they are both very much minority activities. Go and have a look at Figure 1.38 in
http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/bin...014_UK_CMR.pdf

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The difference is that Cord Cutting was not possible then, but it is now (irrespective of the take up percentage). In fact cord cutting has only become a practical option in the last few years.

I still think OTA broadcast will not disappear anytime soon for the basic Freeview channels. And I see no reason for it do so, as it provides an inexpensive and efficient way for the consumer to time shift and advert skip when combined with a PVR.

It is the realms of Pay TV, which will be most affected in the future. Why get tied into a minimum 12 month contract with VM or Sky when you can cherry pick the shows you want from those only available pay channels using various internet services that have only 30 day subscriptions?

To be fair, it's not so easy for sports fans to Cord Cut; I'm just glad that I don't watch sports!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

On demand viewing is growing, but it is still a fraction of the actual figures..

Take Sherlock. According to the BBC, 3.3 million people requested the first episode on iPlayer. Total number of viewers: 11.38 million. So, 1/3rd..

Eastenders: averaged about 1.3 million requests during January 2014. Number of viewers: Averaged about 8m..

Sources: iPlayer http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacent...ance-jan14.pdf
Total viewers: http://www.barb.co.uk/whats-new/weekly-top-30 (you will have to select the dates)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

To be fair, 3.3 million is a pretty large number and 1/3rd is a decent sized fraction.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

To be accurate, 3.3 million is about a quarter of the BARB total, not a third. Also, seeing as iPlayer figures are not incorporated in BARB statistics, 3.3 million is, at best, a fifth of a potential total audience of around 15 million, assuming that all of the iPlayer requests were from new viewers, and not from people who wanted to watch again, having previously seen the episode on TV. BARB does not currently monitor its panel members' use of catch up services like iPlayer so we have no way of knowing for sure.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Yep, my mistake. The original figure I found said 9m had watched EE, so saying about a third would be right, then I found the 11m figure and forgot to alter the one third statement, which is, of course, now incorrect.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

At a guess, the 9m figure would be the overnight, available the day after transmission. The final consolidated figure adds those who time-shifted their viewing by watching within, IIRC, 7 days of transmission. Crucially, BARB's timeshift figures don't count iPlayer downloads. Certainly, they don't count those direct from the BBC via the interwebs. Not sure what the status is with VM, with it being to some degree integrated with the STB.

iPlayer stats really are an enigma. If the BBC has devised some formula for determining what proportion of them are unique views which should be added to the BARB figures, they've not said so. Actually it would be nigh-on impossible for them to arrive at accurate figures simply based on downloads, as they have no way of knowing how many people are viewing the download at the other end of the connection. Only BARB's somewhat intrusive audience monitoring hardware can do that.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This Horowitz Research report agrees with you and suggests that the exodus from linear to OTT/SVOD television is somewhat exaggerated:

http://www.rapidtvnews.com/201502063...#axzz3QxdUTb7P

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

It is, and the point is, it's growing rapidly.

It would be wrong to assume that the figures are going to remain much as they are now over the coming years. I think there will be a sudden surge at some point, and as technology improves.

At present, Freeview only viewers need a Freeview box to access on demand for example. What will happen when most people have a TV that allows this - and indeed video streaming?

Big changes are on the way, IMHO.

---------- Post added at 12:50 ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 ----------

The problem with this is that the report concentrates on what is happening now - not in 10 years' time.

The logic of the flow of this report is clear in this sentence:

'Perhaps one of the most stand-out stats was that the overwhelming majority of multiplatform viewers who have both a multichannel service and OTT SVOD services are not ready to give up easy access to broadcast programming, even when presented with the option of adding standalone, à la carte SVOD services like the new services offered by HBO, Showtime and CBS.'

I'm not sure what that proves, because I too would not want to give up broadcast services at this stage. Where would I access the News for example? However, in the future, all of this will be sorted and would no longer be a problem.

Look at how recently 3D came to TV sets, and enthusiasm came and went. Things are moving fast, and once people get a taste for access to what they want, when they want it, the move towards VOD and streaming services will be unstoppable.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Again, you're simply reading your own enthusiasm for these things on to everyone else. How long do you think a TV lasts? My mum's still using a 4:3 21" CRT that is well over 20 years old, with a Freeview PVR attached, and she only got a PVR because the digital switchover forced obsolescence on her VHS video recorder. She doesn't have any kind of internet connection (by choice).

Plenty of people only buy basic and would end up with a connected TV only if that feature was universally available across the range.

We get 2Mb internet on a good day, by the way, and barely receive standard-def quality pictures when we access iPlayer via our Freesat PVR. Slow 'broadband' is a widespread issue in the UK.

And even when the capability to do it is in every home, there is nothing as convenient as a TV schedule when you're tired at the end of a day in the office, and there's nothing as attractive to an advertiser as a commercial break viewed simultaneously by 10 million people.

I confidently predict that linear broadcast TV will be around and well used for the rest of my lifetime.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Again, you are posting what is now, rather than what is to come.

First of all, the Government is committed to extending good broadband speeds to the whole country. So the 2MB issue you mention will not be a problem forever.

The newer TVs don't last as long as the old ones did because the technology is getting so complicated. My TV needed a new motherboard after just three years. I'm sure I will have to change it within the next 5.

You've only got to go on a walk to see the number of people watching TVs with widescreen, so although there are still people, particularly pensioners, who still have archaic TVs, the majority will have more modern sets than they do now, and the price is coming down all the time.

I've heard more than once on these forums people saying that when they were tired, they just wanted to watch what was on. And yet, if you want to watch something you are actually interested in, you still have to look up in the TV magazine or EPG what is on, or channel hop. Yesterday, when my wife fell asleep in the middle of something we were watching, I just went to Netflix and chose 'My Lists' and there was my pre-planned selection just waiting to be viewed. Chose 'Damages' and it was all done about 15 seconds after going into Netflix.

Frankly, I think people are putting problems in the way - I do understand that people are resistant to change. But the confidence expressed that things will remain as they are forever astounds me!

Incidentally, it's pretty easy for the TV industry to force people to change to a newer technology, just as your Mum had to when her VHS recorder became obsolete.

All they need to do is have all programmes in 4K!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sorry, but you're just being ridiculous now.

It took almost 10 years from the launch of DTT for the government to have the confidence to even begin switching off analogue TV signals, and that was with digital switchover as the intended end result, right from the outset. It took a further five years to complete that process. During that initial 10-year period, DTT was re-branded and re-launched *twice* before it began to penetrate sufficient homes to be considered viable. So no, there is no "all they have to do" when it comes to forcing people to upgrade. It is a long, complex process and it is led by regulators who are empowered by government, not by the TV industry. Even today, DTT doesn't have the capacity to support a complete switch from SD to HD broadcast. "Forcing" everyone on to 4K isn't going to happen. Whether the UK's internet infrastructure would be capable of sustaining HD video streams to 20 million households simultaneously, I don't know. I suspect not.

Most people, by the way, have not the slightest interest in spending time pre-planning a "My List" in Netflix or wherever. In doing so, you are simply marking yourself out as someone who uses TV in a way that the vast majority of other people, don't. That would be why you're so perplexed by those of us who say the linear broadcast schedule is the simplest and most convenient way of watching TV.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The problem with posting what is to come is that what is to come changes. As such, no one knows what we will be watching 10 years down the line for sure. Sure, the "experts" are telling us that we'll be watching streaming services, but 10 years ago, they were telling us we'd be watching everything on HD-DVD. Look what happened there.

Let's wait and see how well that goes. The Government have been saying they will improve rural broadband for nearly a decade now, and don't seem to have achieved much so far.

That's my point. You had to pre plan your selection, and even then you had to make a conscious decision to watch Damages. I'm talking about just hopping through the channels, seeing if something catches my eye and looks interesting. No conscious decision involved. I've discovered many programmes that I've gone on to absolutely love just by channel hopping. It's very shallow of me to say this, but I discovered Buffy The Vampire Slayer because I was channel hopping, and saw Sarah Michelle Gellar and thought "Wow, she looks pretty". It's likely I would not have discovered it had I relied on a text description such as those provided by Netflix.

I'm not really resistant to change, or On Demand video services. I frequently watch things on Netflix, Amazon or the various channel on demand services.
That is unlikely to happen soon. Not because the consumer will resist it (although there are signs consumers are starting to resist new technologies - look at how 3D fared), but the programme makers might slow it down. They are *starting* to upgrade to 4k cameras, but may still want several years more use out of the editing suites and other infrastructure they have that is limited to 2k.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, apart from Eastenders and Coronation street :D :rolleyes:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Just shows how sick some people are. :rolleyes:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This article warns that the whole concept of streaming video may be undermined by lack of investment in infrastructure:

http://www.rapidtvnews.com/201502073...newsletter_454

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

This is not a negative article, Richard. The key words are:

At its inaugural meeting, the Streaming Video Alliance (SVA) issued an assurance to start tackling such issues, which it fears could fracture the market.


and

The SVA says that achieving success in streaming video relies heavily on creating an open architecture and infrastructure model that fosters broad collaboration throughout the online video ecosystem. The alliance confirmed that it has made this its mission, as the organisation plans to develop, publish and promote open standards, policies and best practices that allow the online video streaming ecosystem to flourish.

Yes, there are problems, but this doesn't mean they cannot be overcome and things won't change.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Hi, Stuart, I've scissored your reply to concentrate on the main points that I wanted to make on this.

I think you may be reading more into my 'selection' than actually was the case. It was a few months ago when I went through part of the Netflix library and added the programmes I thought were worth watching to 'My List'. I don't do it on a regular basis, but it only took me a short time (about 20 minutes from memory).

That list remains on the system each time you access it, so by going to 'My Lists', all the selected programmes are on there. All you have to do is choose one - I had no idea I was going to watch 'Damages' until I saw it on there.

Although there is a little time delay getting into Netflix, once you are in, this process takes just seconds and I would be willing to bet that I can find something worth watching long before you do when 'channel hopping' (unless you are easily pleased!). I have found that method of selecting programmes extremely frustrating and even if I find something worthwhile, I find myself in the middle of the programme or a series that I hadn't watched before. A most inefficient means of finding a programme that you want to see, IMHO.

My comment about 4K was just meant to remind everyone that a change in technology can generate major change that we have little control over. Obviously a change to HD only is more likely than 4K in the foreseeable future, but who knows what may prompt a change in the present system?

I understand completely that some of you on the Forum are comfortable with what you have now, but many of us want more. It's not my decision whether they actually withdraw the current system; all I am saying is that it is unlikely to last forever.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

But you seem to want less, not more.

Linear and streaming will continue to co-exist. They each serve their own purpose.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sorry if I have led you to that belief. I certainly want more streaming and the maximum choice of programmes.

I am happy for broadcast TV to continue, but I just think that once new ways of viewing really catch on, broadcast TV will decline to a point when it is either diminished substantially or discontinued altogether, and this could happen sooner than we think.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Many of us want more? Don't see too many people agree with you at the minute. Happy to be corrected though.

Yeah things could change, but I simply can not see why they will. I like the odd binge watch, but I more pleased by the fact Netflix are drip feeding Better Call Saul. However, I will be seriously hacked off if someone trots into work at 12 on a Tuesday and spoils an episode of the show simply because he saw it 8 am whilst I had no way of watching at work. If that happens often enough, and too many people complain, the times the show is aired will change quickly.

Also, please explain how ITV will fund themselves via on-demand programs with no adverts? Would you happy to pay for a new series of a show when the previous one was FTA? And whilst you are at it, what incentive have they got to show programs with no adverts in? What are they going to do, tell advertisers they don't need them anymore because no-one wants adverts?

It may happen, but in my eyes it's not gonna happen for a long, long, long, long, long time.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I'm glad you are happy with your lot, Harry. But you don't have to look far to realise that many people indeed want more. For example, why are so many trying to break out of the UK restrictions using 'Unblockus' and so on? Why are so many people wingeing about Virgin Media's inability to give us access to Sky Atlantic?

Yes, it can be annoying when you are watching a series and a friend or colleague blurts out what happens next, but surely that was the situation with 'Breaking Bad' on Netflix, wasn't it? Look how many people were into that and enjoyed it immensely.

And if the streaming companies decide to bring us new programmes on a week by week basis, there is nothing to stop them doing that by popular demand.

Funding is a separate issue. It is a matter for ITV and the like to find different income streams. This is the big issue in a lot of areas with sites on the internet (eg newspapers, etc). Examples of ways around it include subscriptions and sales to providers like Netflix and on demand providers like Virgin Media. Advertising on the sites themselves or as a precurser to the programme are other alternatives.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Yeah people want more (i.e. Atlantic), but I thought this was a discussion about the future of linear tv channels and how you would prefer to have the same shows on linear TV available advert free and that you want to be watch them at any given time ahead of it's scheduled showing on linear TV? Have I missed something in the way the discussion has developed over the weeks?

BTW, it's not just VM don't get access to Atlantic. You can hardly blame them if no-one else is prepared to what Sky apparently ask for.
Ironically, if VM ever did get SA (hugely unlikely), it will be a recordable linear channel with no real need for a streaming service, as you can simply record the linear broadcast. Odd you mention that when you can get it as a streaming service via Now TV!!!!!

Yup, that is a fair point about Breaking Bad etc, consider that point retracted.

---------- Post added at 15:28 ---------- Previous post was at 15:20 ----------

Lets say you can't afford pay TV, how would you pay extra to watch shows that are currently FTA on ITV? Why should the less well off have to miss out on FTA programs? LOL, so instead of adverts during the show, you will be happy to sit through the same amount of adverts at the beginning of a show and/or be bombarded with them on a webpage. Rather defeats the object, surely

Edit, why should ITV have to find alternative funding? It is working pretty well for them as it is currently.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

A number of points here, but I'll be brief:

1. Yes, the discussion is how linear TV may be withdrawn or reduced in the future to be replaced by streaming services. However, this does not prevent discussions arising from that.

2. Yes, advert free, but realistically, ads will always be present. I'd be happy fast forwarding through them or having two or three at the beginning of a streaming session, but not interrupted as we have to put up with now on the commercial channels.

3. I'm not blaming VM for not being able to get Sky Atlantic. I blame Sky for that, as most of us on here do.

4. I don't think most people want to access their programmes from a whole range of equipment. Far better to have it on just one box. Now TV doesn't work for me at present as I've mentioned before.

5. As far as free TV is concerned, we currently have to pay for the TV licence. If people only paid for what they watched (rather than be compulsorily charged for channels they may not watch), it would not necessarily be more expensive. Have you ever thought about what it would cost you if you only paid for the programmes you watched? I'd save a fortune on Sky Movies for a start!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

And how would that work for Freeview commercial channels? Not buy any of the products advertised in the programmes that you don't watch? Now there's a logistical conundrum :)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Not sure what you mean, but I think the number of TV channels will reduce over time and eventually go altogether.

I think in the future you will just pay for what you watch, with a choice of subscription and/or pay per view. Commercial broadcasters are pretty unanimous in pleading that the TV licence system is out of date.

When you compare the instant access to the programmes you want to see with the likes of Netflix and Amazon Prime, with the tiresome wait for the programme you want to see on broadcast TV and those interminable advertisements, I think that most people, in time, will come to accept the inevitable.

I acknowledge I could well be wrong on the 10 years time span, but come it will, I'm convinced of that. Of course something even more startling may develop in the meantime which none of us have even contemplated!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

For someone who champions On Demand almost daily I find it strange your so against a decent streaming device what offers you all the services you want.

Let's be honest whilst the TIVO is an ok PVR its far from the complete product if streaming is your main interest.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Where dear old Auntie should be using the license fee is to take more chances, they can't be overly "silly" but they should be able to make/commission new programming from "unproven" sources. Where they are going seems to be more of the same old safe stuff that everyone else makes or has been around long enough to establish a following. Commercial channels have less opportunity for that and with advertising spread thinly programme makers have to be more popular minded too.

Then, as with politics, you have to look at a long picture. What if in the future there is only pay to view and (government) propaganda? Who will take chances making a programme that may not "sell"? How does "minority" programming get produced and broadcast? Who pays?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

With regards Sky Movies, you could probably save quite a bit of money by going down the love film by post route. You can have two discs out at a time and if you are careful enough you can always one disc in the house and another in post coming to you. I appreciate it is a bit more inconvenient, but you get all the latest release long before Sky Movies and you get a much bigger selection of movies too.

---------- Post added at 17:19 ---------- Previous post was at 17:16 ----------

Again, you are bringing up adverts, but you have just posted saying they will always be around.:confused:

I don't think many have disagreed things will change, It is just that they don't think it will happen the way you think it may happen.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You're hung up on the licence fee for the BBC but fail to understand that you are paying a similar fee for commercial channels via paying for a products advertising cost.