Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The market is of course looking at the future state as well (it would be accused of being asleep at the wheel if it didn't) so whilst today hasn't actually changed it is of course trying now to prepare for a post brexit world which we now know will happen!, that is their job and they are trying actually (believe it or not) to prepare in best possible way. That is how economics works you make decisions based on today and what you think the future looks like whilst using the past as a rule of thumb

I welcome your view on this radical reform you speak of and how this is done on a "global" scale

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Predicting and planning is different to actual activity and given nothing has actually changed there is no practical reason for all the volatility unless we were entering a period of volatility and brexit is just a convenient excuse. I would have thought our voting to leave the EU was less cause for volatility then the perilous state of Mediterranean finances some of which could go into complete meltdown at some point this year. Maybe that is the real problem and cause and again brexit is the convenient excuse.

As to what reform i dont know the system well enough to have an idea how it should be reformed but clearly it does need reform and change if only to secure it more against unscrupulous speculators that all too often seem to create big problems.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

As I remember I said I thought the hyperbole of it all was absurd. I'm not sure I said that there would be no negative consequences in the shorter term, I think I was quite open in saying that there would be a period of uncertainty, but that the idea that forecasts could be made reliably 15 years into the future, that an emergency budget would be needed or that World War 3 would kick off was absurd.

I may be mistaken and can't be bothered to go back through the posts though. Keeping calm, carrying on and all that.

And now something a little lighter.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/08/16.jpg

---------- Post added at 11:19 ---------- Previous post was at 11:09 ----------

The two issues, Brexit and the ongoing Eurozone problems, don't sit in a silo and aren't insulated, the impacts are cumulative.

I'm not sure how issues with finances of a group of countries that comprise perhaps a few % of our exports can be considered less of a cause for volatility than uncertainty over our trading relationship with a bloc that as a whole takes ~40% of our exports or the huge fluctuations in our currency.

Something has actually materially changed already - the weakening of Sterling is making imports more expensive and this is slowly but surely filtering through. Imports more expensive means lower buying power domestically, so lower domestic demand.

Pretty much as described by the BoE going forward. An increase in exports alongside lower domestic demand, and there is inevitably a delay while the economy tries to recalibrate to this.

It's not actually a bad thing overall, we were far too dependent on domestic consumption and were exporting too little. Bit messy during the transition though.

I am sure that if we make a strong success of the transition people will be delighted, as they should be. I will be. In the interim, of course, all of us need to accept the consequences of our vote, whichever way we voted.

Like Israel, I maintain a policy of ambiguity with regards to which way I voted on the day :p:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Not a t all I'm saying I think the Government are panicking a bit. Yes we knew this would happen but not the doom and gloom predicted. Seems like there won't be a recession now.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Suggest you look at a graph of sterling over the last few few decades - it's been up and down like a yoyo. Currencies tend to fluctuate according to all sorts of factors, some of which have little or nothing to do with internal fundamentals. Much of the world is still struggling to recover from the aftermath of 2007/8 and IMHO the legacy of that, PLUS Brexit uncertainty will continue to affect our currency. Once the Euro bad news starts to focus a few minds, however, Sterling will recover just like it has done before and at that point everyone will start banging on about how that will adversely affect our exports...
:spin:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

They shouldn't bother about 5-10 years they should just carry on as they are. Regarding the EU nothing has changed and won't until we start negotiations. Trading still continues as it has always done. We are still full members until we decide otherwise.

---------- Post added at 15:34 ---------- Previous post was at 15:31 ----------

Actually according to the news today it is where it was before the referendum.

---------- Post added at 15:37 ---------- Previous post was at 15:34 ----------

The same thing they would do regardless of whether we voted to leave or remain in the EU or if there had never been a referendum on the EU. Buy and sell as normal. Can't blame that on Brexit.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Erm, big companies have to have 5 and 10 year plans, so they can plan investment, and raise capital from the City for those investments; if you don't plan for the future, you'll soon be out of business...

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Indeed and they would have already done that. Things just don't change overnight. They will have made their investments.

If it's no big deal, why are we even worrying about it. It's only temporary after all. 5-10 years down the line when the economy is either booming or gone belly-up is the time to celebrate or panic.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

You don't just get given money by banks/bonds issuers/Investment Capitalists, you have to show them your short, medium, and long term plans, and how you are willing and able to adjust them if downturns and upturns happen - they don't give you it all at once, it is issued in tranches, and only if they believe they will get a return on it. If they think the economy is on a downturn, they won't loan you the money, or will ask for more in repayments.

If they think they will get more of a return on their investment from a country with a stronger economy, they'll invest there, not here.

It's not like a bank loan, it's a lot more complicated than that.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Tell you what, given those experts were clueless they seem to be having one hell of an impact on things.

[img][/img]

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Pah experts, we're sick of them, far better to rely on ignorance, optimism and what people down your street say.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M :tu:

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

But they're not. Where's Armageddon?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

i think its planned for next week just after ww3 ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think you may be making stuff up now...

Who said it would be Armageddon?

However, your statement that it's not having an impact is a sub-optimal interpretation of actuality..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36974551