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Even before the Fox acquisition (which completes next Wednesday) Disney had vast amounts of its own tv content. And from next Wednesday, it will have tons more.
I think with tv shows, you can get more into them than you can with films, simply because of the amount of episodes in a average American tv show vs a one off film. But as for shelf life, Star Wars (the original ones) is still chugging along nicely and then there's all the newer films, almost like a tv series in fact. |
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I think though Netflix has a lot of content now and a lot of varied content to appeal to all ages and types of people. Disney's own service might be more limited.
However only ti e will tell. |
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How many shows advertised as Netflix originals have rights owned by another broadcaster also. |
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As you say, we'll have to wait and see what Disney offer on their streaming services, but as their material won't be available on Netflix in the future and considering the fact that the enlarged Disney will make around a third of all American films and shows that comes out of Hollywood. And add to the fact that their archive will be immense and their rights to future stuff or remake older stuff is also immense, if they do streaming properly, they'll be right up there with Netflix or even eventually beat them. |
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp.../#17d0a07b2886
Interesting thoughts from Forbes. Netflix has debt of $200 per subscriber. No wonder they’ve put their prices up. I’m not predicting doom and gloom for Netflix but it clearly can’t exist in the “low cost” subscription model forever. |
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Comcast who own Sky, among others, who in turn operate the Now TV platform in the UK. I can see Netflix doing the old debt for equity swap before being swallowed up by another media company. |
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The likes of Comcast , Disney and Warner Media also have far more options available to them when it comes to monetising content in this respect Netflix is a one trick pony.
Theme parks , merchandise , advertising platforms are just a few examples. |
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In any other sector this would be a business in distress. The shareholders are essentially hoping someone buys them because of their existing technology and customer base. Larger companies with existing profitable businesses (and crucially assets to support their debt) like Liberty, Comcast or dare I even suggest Amazon could pull the rug from under a Netflix very easily if it was worthwhile. I suspect it isn’t, but it’s a precarious position. |
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In time, Netflix will presumably give rights to show their older original content and bolster their income that way. |
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Plenty of companies go bankrupt on the same basis.
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1. They collapse under their debt mountain before generating a penny in profit. 2. Their subscriber numbers continue to accelerate upwards allowing free cash flow to bring down their debts and who knows, even make a profit at some point before 2100. Obviously, I prefer option 2, but its a high risk game they play. But Disney's service doesn't start until the end of the year and it will be several years, if at all, before they can catch Netflix, in my opinion. That's what I'm betting on. First mover in any field is still a major advantage. At some point they have to stop spending all that money and hope they have enough content to keep existing subscribers and attract new ones. |
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Disney doesn't need to have as many subscribers to have an impact on Netflix with so many options around the corner what happens if Netflix growth stalls ?
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I hope Netflix are part of the diverse landscape in the future, but I also hope it's with a sustainable business model.
As Eleven Sports have demonstrated it's possible to leave rights holders, your own subscribers and subscribers of other platforms worse off by your participation in the market. The range of choice available is better off for Netflix as part of it, for now, but if they are just going to be another platform with premium add ons for sports, near cinema release movies, etc. then what's in it for the average consumer? |
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If its in the States, they probably will be unable to generate anymore new subscribers anyway, so not a problem. If its internationally the growth stalls, then yes, that's a major problem and I'd expect they'd go belly up pretty quickly as investors rush for the exit door. I'm expecting international growth, year-on-year for the next three years, by which time, some of their revenues need to go into paying some debt. Netflix's response about Disney is they will have enough of their content to cushion the loss of Disney's content and they say they welcome the competition, as that grows the overall streaming market for everyone. THat's their line. I think they have three years before Disney will impact their business and they need to be big enough to cushion that impact. I see Netflix as Sky was at the beginning. If they can grow big enough quickly, they will remain top dog. Comcast and others have already said that they intend to continue to licence some of their content to other companies, so that's a major plus point for Netflix. Without other Hollywood material, I'd be far more nervous about Netflix's prospects. Depending on price, there's room for probably 4-6 global streamers here, it's just a case of how the cake is sliced and by whom. ---------- Post added at 16:41 ---------- Previous post was at 16:38 ---------- Quote:
It's Disney who has to compete and they will, I've no doubt about that all. (I own Disney shares too.) ---------- Post added at 16:47 ---------- Previous post was at 16:41 ---------- Quote:
The content they make now, in theory, should still be making them money for years to come. If they start licence it to others, it becomes a complete mess. However, I rule nothing out.;) |
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Is this an anti Netflix thread......:D
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Which big companies had that many customers and then lost them a few years later? |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC |
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Netflix has 139+ paying customers, not users. |
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You didn't have the word "paying" in your initial statement... |
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This is silly...
Netflix has paying customers. The users who used Myspace and Google+, at least most of them, didn't pay for a service and that might explain why those services don't exist anymore. |
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Nokia. Pan Am. Lehman Brothers. Kodak.
Could be adding Boeing to that list if they don't handle their current crisis well. I was reading earlier about a drug tampering incident in the US. "Before the poisonings, Tylenol brands held around 35% of the US market for acetaminophen [paracetamol] and in the immediate aftermath, fell to 8%" In that instance, the manufacturer handled the situation well, and eventually recovered their market share, but it shows how external factors can play a part. |
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Those were old companies who were behind the curve. Netflix is not only ahead of the curve, but leading it. If someone comes out with a product that is better and cheaper than Netflix, then of course they're at risk. But 139m+ customers is a massive ladder for competitors to climb up and they won't get there anytime in the next three years, if at all. ---------- Post added at 15:26 ---------- Previous post was at 15:25 ---------- Quote:
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Microsoft was 'not only ahead of the curve, but leading it'.
Is it now? |
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewc.../#3eb9fbb25ce1 They have had more than their fair share of mis-steps over the years, though. I bet I'm the only person here still using Windows Phone :) |
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The problem being many Netflix originals aren't actually owned by Netflix.
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An example is The Sinner which is distributed by NBC Universal there are many more examples. |
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If this was a cable operator everyone would be predicting the end in terms of when not if. However companies in the “.com” bubble seem to get a pass. |
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Leaving aside Spiderplant's reply to you, which I agree with, I would keep a close eye on Microsoft in regards to streaming. Microsoft's silence on this matter is deafening and they still have the cash do do whatever they want, including taking on Netflix or buying them, should they wish to do so. Whether they actually do, I've no idea, but Murdoch sold most of his his empire due to the threat from the tech giants and Microsoft is still a Big Daddy looming in the shadows. The one to see whether they lead or flop is Amazon. I cannot work out whether they are a retailer, streamer, AI, cloud company etc. They do too many things and will ultimately break off into several different companies to survice or die. What I like about Netflix is you can understand it. It does streaming. That's it. |
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Netflix's debt is mostly long term and is being serviced by its enormous revenues. If people thought Netflix was a credit risk, they wouldn't lend to them. Quote:
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A lot of tv and films do become outdated quickly, so there is a shelf life for a lot of stuff, but if you haven't seen something before, regardless of its age, it's new. There will always be new audiences for older stuff. Disney's Mickey Mouse is still going strong and making money for Disney after all this time, as but one example of something old, yet new to some. The tv series Friends is another example of something old now, yet people still lapping it up, which is why Netflix paid a load more money to keep the series on its service for another year. ---------- Post added at 22:21 ---------- Previous post was at 22:21 ---------- Quote:
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I get impression Amazon contacts give the production company less control to do deals with shows elsewhere, I've never seen a true Amazon Original available via other media or broadcaster (I don't include Ripper Street as BBC still retained involvement after cancelling it). Another example of Netflix shows appearing on broadcast TV is Sony Crime and Orange Is The New Black. I think what blurs the lines with both Netflix and Amazon Prime Video is they both label outside shows as Originals and they are often first shown on other network in other countries, they only premiere on them elsewhere e.g. Orphan Black which was a BBC America show. Many people are as a result giving Netflix and Amazon credit for shows that they didn't originate. And now there are more complicated examples, where regional broadcasters/production companies are bringing the pair of them (not at the same time, one or the other) in primarily so they can get a bigger budget. Good Omens on Amazon was originally a BBC show, but they recognised during development they (& other companies involved at the time) needed more money to do justice and Amazon clearly asked for first transmission as part of the deal for additional funding. So BBC Two will now be showing it later in the year, despite BBC Studios still making it. I have no problem with co-productions, but it really annoys me Amazon calling it an Original when they are late to the project. |
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They are originals, shown by Netflix. So called because it is shown for the first time in the UK.
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I would be quite happy if Netflix went back to being what it originally was, which was a one stop shop for everyone's else's stuff. |
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Sky partners with BBC Studios to bring customers iconic British box sets
https://www.skygroup.sky/corporate/m...itish-box-sets |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47629869
Looks like the streamers have missed out on FA Cup rights until 2025 |
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No surprise at all big bear but l am sure the next plethora of obfuscating backtracking excuses won't be long in coming from the master of future predictions.;)
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In their defence that’s just the FTA rights. ;)
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Remember, the archive issue was meant to be part of the deal for bringing back the UKTV channels. ---------- Post added at 13:33 ---------- Previous post was at 13:32 ---------- Quote:
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In the USA the streaming service DAZN has sensationally doubled its price from $9.99 a month to $19.99. Hopefully not a sign of things to come in the “low cost” streaming world.
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Sport is always going to be more expensive, but personally, not being a sports person, I will be happy not to have to pay for sport as part of any of my packages when I finally ditch my pay tv channels. It would be interesting to know what proportion of my 'Full House' package goes towards BT Sport, which I never watch. |
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Of course Sky Sports is the premier product in the market offering an unparalleled range of content. DAZN does not do this in the USA. |
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Current subscribers get the old price for another year or the yearly sub is $99.99. Big headline but isn't bad if you do a year. http://www.sportspromedia.com/news/d...ly-annual-pass |
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Signs of subscription fatigue https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/busi...ost_type=share
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https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/25/ap...g-credit-card/ |
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The article I read on Disney + a few months ago stated that the new streaming service would have three strands to it - Disney productions including Marvel productions, Hulu and sport.
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Disney+ will operate alongside Hulu.
Disney now own 60% of Hulu |
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Some more information here on Apple+, which should be launching this autumn. And guess what - they are looking at bundling channels (streaming services) at a discount. Well, who'd have thought it? :D
https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/25/1...inals-channels Pricing for the various Apple TV Channels hasn’t been disclosed. It’s been rumored that Apple will offer bundles of them at a discount, but the company didn’t delve into any of that today. |
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It's rumoured...
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The market will be saturated and far from lowering costs to the end user it’ll force prices up.
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UKTV Channels have been taken off TV Player from yesterday.
so they have now lost these channels as well as freesports which happened last week. |
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Genuine free competition in which customers can choose between multiple providers without government controls getting in the way leads to lower prices. |
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It's exactly how it worked when the Premier League were forced to stop Sky getting all the UK rights. With the entry of new broadcasters ensured to have at least 1 package of rights the cost for these packages spiralled as the competing broadcasters tried to secure as many of the packages as they could/wanted. Prime example of competition raising prices! ---------- Post added at 08:59 ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 ---------- Quote:
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However you’ve ignored the important qualifications to that economic theory. It assumes a large number of suppliers offering directly comparable products that substitute for each other. It also assumes barriers to entry are low allowing suppliers to enter or exit the market easily. The pay-tv market doesn’t work this way. Barriers to entry are high, even in streaming, which is why the current market can at best be described as oligopoly. The same applies to their upstream supliers: the Vauxhall Conference isn’t a comparable product to the Premiership. Last years cinema releases aren’t comparable with movies from the 90s. Streaming won’t change that if it’s dominated by huge US media conglomerates plus Amazon and Netflix. |
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No, Old Boy he means the charges that companies will charge.
So, if you're a independent film maker with a £200k budget, most of which is spent on making a film, the chance that the film will ever appear on Netflix, Amazon, Disney+ etc is zero because the barriers, the charges, will be too high. Another example is premiership football. If you're a new media company today, you could never afford to compete against the big players for the rights to show matches, as the barriers, the charges, are too high. I've not always agreed with jfman in regards to this thread, but on this I do agree. I had a graphic somewhere (which I can't find) which illustrated that something like 40-50 years ago there were 200+ American media companies. Essentially, that 200 is now down to less than 10. And its not just tv, newspapers in the States are dominated now by just a couple of companies. Another "recent" example of this is search engines. Anyone remember Lycos, Yahoo, Alta Vista? Now its pretty much just Google or Mircosoft's Bing. Two companies dominating all internet search, where there used to be dozens. And those two companies decide what is relevant or not, when you search for a term. All organisations want to get as big and powerful as possible and streaming will be no different. There may well be dozens of streamers out there, like there is now, but the streaming market will be dominated by no more six players at most. Which six, take your bets now. |
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Barriers to entry would be anything that stops you, me or anyone else easily setting up a streaming service and makes it easier for Comcast or Disney to do it. ---------- Post added at 21:46 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ---------- Quote:
It’s nice that Netflix found people to borrow $20bn from to develop and grow their business, however it’s unrealisable for all but a small number of companies to do this. |
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Discovery streaming service global launch planned for 2020.
http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/Disco...D-services.php EXTRACT Discovery is expanding its push into subscription streaming TV with a range of new direct-to-consumer video services, including a natural history partnership with the BBC. Discovery was among the first of the major media brands to try its hand at the direct-to-consumer proposition, originally with an OTT offer launched in the Nordics. The content producer is planning to launch new themed SVOD services, drawing on the specialties of Discovery’s channels. The company owns TV channels including Discovery, Food Network and HGTV. The plan is to segment and package content into streaming plans catering for viewers with different interest, as Discovery aims to become something of a Netflix of factual programming. The most high profile of these is a new natural-history service that includes content from the BBC, creating a combined library with titles such as “Planet Earth” and “Blue Planet.” Discovery didn’t disclose the price, but expects it will cost a few dollars a month when it launches globally in 2020. The 10-year content partnership is effective for all territories outside the UK, Ireland and Greater China. Discovery has also acquired SVOD rights to hundreds of hours of BBC programming across factual genres. All of this content will form one of the pillars of a new global streaming service, which will also include some of the best of Discovery’s programming library, original content created for the service, and experiences. |
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To be expected really.
The worldwide end to end vertical integration of content makes sense for Discovery, Viacom, Comcast, Liberty Global, Disney, Fox, CBS, Netflix and Amazon in the long run. It'll be interesting to see what a "few dollars per month" translates into. Everyone wants the Netflix customer base but without the $20bn of debt. |
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