Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I think the loss of advertising impact due to time shifting may be overstated somewhat. My kids have films going back nearly 4 years on our box, most of which are recorded off ITV2 on a Sunday afternoon. They jump through the commercial breaks but they still see a flash of each one, and by now they can recite each brand or product in order, in every break. In fact they ae pretty well brainwashed. And when they grow up I doubt they will ever phone anywhere other than 118 118 for directory enquiries. :erm:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

There appears to be a growing acceptance that linear channels have commenced their long downward path.

http://www.rethinkresearch.biz/artic...-habits-shift/

Survey shows linear TV’s hold is slipping as viewing habits shift

Extract

A constant trickle of survey results and reports is painting a clear, if unsurprising, picture of the slow demise of traditional linear viewing on televisions. Mobiles, tablets and OTT net tops are stealing market share from set tops and aerials, and the value placed in the exclusivity that content used to enjoy on TV is being eroded by OTT libraries, with the possible exception of Live Sports (see article on Sky this week).

Time-shifted viewing, in particular VoD catch-up, has also diminished the perceived value of prime-time content – so why rush home to watch the latest episode of something you can watch at any time after your chores are complete? Only live content can still command a premium, but for those paying for the privilege of watching (usually sports), there is an increasing consumer expectation that they can watch on any device and not just the TV at home.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Good find OB....

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nobody looks harder than someone who wants to find evidence for something he already believes in ... ;)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

True, but I am open to news that the linear channels will be saved as well!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You won't be told my dear chap will you.:)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

News just in: the linear channels will be saved too. ;)

Look at it this way: of course VOD will erode linear viewing figures. It's a new way of consuming content. People now have more choice, but there are still only 24 hours in a day. The question is, will it prove so convenient that it will completely replace linear broadcast. The eye-poppingly obvious answer is no, it will not.

The reason it will not is that linear platforms offer things that VOD cannot replicate. Much as cinema survived the advent of TV by being able to offer a more immersive experience, showing content whose cost-to-produce was far higher than could be sustained by a TV company, in a context that offers cinema goers a social experience, so linear broadcast TV will survive on its own advantages over VOD.

Some of the key advantages linear broadcast enjoys are:
- Ability to show live events (as identified in the article you found)
- Ability to connect with a passive audience
- Easy access to a mass audience for advertisers
- Ability to offer a version of the cinema's social experience - "water cooler" TV that is viewed simultaneously in sufficient numbers that it can be a discussion point the following day, thus enhancing the broadcaster's brand and the potential reach of their product.

Home taping didn't kill music.
TV didn't kill the cinema.
VOD won't kill the TV.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Only your opinion of course...:)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

As are all our opinions and that's why its so interesting sometimes as if we all had the same opinions then life would be boring.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope.

Opinions are like rectums: everyone has one.

What I have offered is a logical conclusion based on evidence and reason.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

No one can be 100% sure of what will happen in the future!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

... Which is true, but is not an observation as to the difference between a.n.other opinion, and a reasoned conclusion.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Maybe so, but the evidence that OB has found tends to show the demise of traditional linear viewing, of course we will always have "live" events, mainly in sport imo.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The evidence OB has found does not contradict what I posted above, and it does not support the argument he has made throughout this thread, that VOD means linear TV will be dead in 10 years.

It would be a mistake to project the current downward trend forwards to a point where it reaches zero. The reasons for the current decline do not support such an assumption. There are, however, plenty of reasons for arguing that a new equilibrium will be reached between various methods of content delivery. I have outlined some of those above.

I could add to that, that companies that own both platform and channel, such as Sky, have a massive incentive to continue to provide their premium content via the linear platforms they own.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Absolutely agree old chap.