The law of averages

[Theodoric]

A new case of people falling for that notorious statistical fallacy, the "Law of averages".

[homealone]

amazing how superstition & gambling seem to go together.

Of course the chance of any number being drawn is exactly the same for each lotto, no matter how many times it has or hasn't been drawn in the past.

[Plonking]

if this were the world of the simpsons, i believe we would be in need of a "ha - ha " nelson muntz-style!

i've always found it amusing, the superstitions that people have around gambling. although, saying that, pigeons can be trained to be superstitious as well, so maybe it's not *that* surprising after all


P

[Matth]

If a number is absent for a statistically important number of draws, instead of favouring it, you should begin to ask if there's something wrong with it!

[danielf]

Originally Posted by Theodoric

A new case of people falling for that notorious statistical fallacy, the "Law of averages".

And the Guardian's 'scientific reporting' is not making it any better.

Is the following meant to suggest there is something special about the number 53?

Originally Posted by The Guardian

Prime power: The odd one out

· 53 is a prime number

· The operation Desert Storm against Iraq in 1990-1991 cost $53bn

· The Khyber Pass, which separates Pakistan from Afghanistan, is 53 kilometres long

· The first modern atlas was the Theatrum Orbis Terrarum, published in 1570 and containing 53 maps

·The prayer of Ave Maria is repeated 53 times in the recitation of the rosary

· Iodine is the element with the atomic number 53

· 53 was the number painted on Herbie the Volkswagen

· The late Diana, Princess of Wales was on the cover of People magazine 53 times

· The word "perfect" is used 53 times in the Bible (NRSV)

· 53 is the code for international direct dial phone calls to Cuba

· It is also the number of member states sitting on the United Nations commission on human rights

[Mr_love_monkey]

A girl once told me I was average, but I think she was just being mean.

Though, surely, not every number has the same chances of being drawn, since other factors must be taken into account?

For example, a ball that is fractionally lighter, may be more likely to be drawn, or maybe less likely? statistically speaking yes, they're all equal, but realistically they're not? (at least that's what I think)

[Theodoric]

Originally Posted by danielf

And the Guardian's 'scientific reporting' is not making it any better.

Is the following meant to suggest there is something special about the number 53?

I gave them the benefit of the doubt and assumed that it was a bit of gentle leg pulling.

[BBKing]

And the Guardian's 'scientific reporting' is not making it any better.

A little po-faced there - the point to be drawn is that every number is special and interesting in some way, given how much we rely on mathematics in the modern world. Anyway, one of the great mathematicians indulged in this sort of thing:

"Ramanujan had an intimate familiarity with numbers, and excelled especially in number theory and modular function theory. His familiarity with numbers were demonstrated by the following incident. During an illness in England, Hardy visited Ramanujan in the hospital. When Hardy remarked that he had taken taxi number 1729, a singularly unexceptional number, Ramanujan immediately responded that this number was actually quite remarkable: it is the smallest integer that can be represented in two ways by the sum of two cubes: 1729=13+123=93+103."

[Theodoric]

Originally Posted by BBKing

<Snip>the point to be drawn is that every number is special and interesting in some way, given how much we rely on mathematics in the modern world.
<Snip>

A fair number of years ago Penguin (I think) published a book listing the first hundred or so numbers and gave the special properties of each of them.

[BBKing]

I have it, or something very similar. Rather a hobby of mine.

[danielf]

Originally Posted by BBKing

<snip>
Ramanujan immediately responded that this number was actually quite remarkable: it is the smallest integer that can be represented in two ways by the sum of two cubes: 1729=13+123=93+103."

Writing not his strongest point then. j/k Had it been 1729=1^3+12^3 etc, it would have saved me a puzzle

[BBKing]

*blush*

That's what you get for copying/pasting while an infant is screaming for attention. Apologies, but you can feel smug for figuring it out!

[Theodoric]

Originally Posted by BBKing

I have it, or something very similar. Rather a hobby of mine.

Well, one record, number-wise, is the estimate made of the quantum energy of the vacuum which was out by a factor of 10^120, the largest order of magnitude error ever!

[BBKing]

I'm sure that record will be exceeded by a UK Government IT project at some point

[Theodoric]

Originally Posted by BBKing

I'm sure that record will be exceeded by a UK Government IT project at some point

Yes, they do try hard, don't they!